StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

USC favored big over Cal on Thursday night
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 11/13/2014  at  5:52:00 AM
  Print This Article    

CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (5-4)
at USC TROJANS (6-3)

Kickoff: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: USC -14.5, Total: 72

California looks to become bowl eligible when it travels to USC on Thursday night.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

The Golden Bears started out the season with two wins (SU and ATS) against non-conference opponents, but have struggled in Pac-12 play while going 3-4 SU (4-3 ATS) and losing three of the past four games. Each one of those defeats came at home, but they were able to get a victory in their most recent contest on Nov. 1 as they defeated Oregon State on the road by a score of 45-31 as 3.5-point underdogs. The teams combined for 1,012 yards of total offense with 546 of them coming from the California, which split the yardage nearly evenly between passing (277 yards) and rushing (269 yards). The Trojans have certainly had a disappointing year while going 6-3 (both SU and ATS) and coving in each one of their wins but failing to cover in any of their three losses. They have taken their defeats by an average of just 4.3 PPG but were able to grab a lopsided win in their last game on Nov. 1, taking down Washington State on the road by a score of 44-17 as 7-point favorites. USC piled up a hefty 527 yards of offense in the victory while throwing for 400 yards and five touchdowns. The Trojans went off last season when these two programs met head-to-head, winning by a score of 62-28 as 19-point favorites on the road, which included scoring 41 points in the first half. USC had 256 yards rushing in the victory while neither team had a turnover. That gave the Trojans 10 straight SU wins (8-2 ATS) in this series, as they have prevailed in 19.8 PPG during this series win streak. Bettors should be aware that USC is a mere 6-15 ATS (29%) after one or more consecutive SU wins in the past three seasons, but the Golden Bears are only 17-33 ATS (34%) in road games after a game where they committed one or less turnovers since 1992. On the injury front, WRs Kenny Lawler (ankle) and Trevor Davis (neck) are questionable for California while DBs Su’a Cravens (leg) and John Plattenburg (thigh) are also questionable for the host Trojans.

Can USC cover the big spread in this Pac-12 matchup? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season.

California has been one of the best passing offenses in the nation with 361 YPG through the air (4th in FBS), while rushing for 148.1 YPG and scoring 41.9 PPG (9th in FBS). QB Jared Goff (3,119 pass yards, 27 TD, 4 INT) has surpassed 300 passing yards in six of his past seven performances, but has just five touchdowns in his past four games combined. He has connected on 63% of his passes on the year for 8.4 YPA and has twice thrown for more than 450 yards. HB Daniel Lasco (796 rush yards, 10 TD) has rushed for over 100 yards three times this year while running the ball 30 times for 188 yards (6.3 YPC) and 3 TD in the win over Oregon State to open the month. Eight different receivers on the team have 18+ receptions with WR Stephen Anderson (509 rec yards, 3 TD) leading the team in yards while WRs Bryce Treggs (462 rec yards, 6 TD), Chris Harper (454 rec yards, 5 TD) and Kenny Lawler (404 rec yards, 6 TD) have been productive. Their defense has allowed opponents to score 39.9 PPG (6th-worst in FBS) while giving up more than 30 points in each of the past seven games. LB Michael Barton (60 tackles, 5.5 TFL) and DB Michael Lowe (55 tackles, 3.5 TFL) will need to step up their performances in order to keep the strong USC offense in check.

While the Trojans have been better in the passing attack (286.4 YPG, 25th in nation), they have also been effective rushing the ball (172.4 YPG), which has led to 34.9 PPG (29th in FBS) out of their offense. QB Cody Kessler (2,548 pass yards, 25 TD, 2 INT) has had some huge games this year while going over 300 yards four times and has 14 TD with just 1 INT over the past three contests. In his last game, he went 21-for-32 (66%) with 400 yards and 5 TD (0 INT) in the blowout win over Washington State. HB Javorius Allen (1,124 rush yards, 8 TD) has reached the century mark running the ball in all but one game this season while averaging 21.8 attempts per game (5.7 YPC). He has also been vital to the air attack, catching 28 balls for 334 yards (11.9 avg) and a touchdown. WR Nelson Agholor (863 rec yards, 8 TD) has been consistent with at least five receptions in each game while averaging 152.7 YPG over the past three contests. Their defense has looked solid in the high-octane Pac-12 conference, as they have given up only 22.6 PPG (34th in nation). LB Hayes Pullard (68 tackles, 1 INT) and DL Leonard Williams (54 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT) have been the leaders on this side of the ball.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: