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Bowling Green hosts struggling Kent State Wednesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 11/12/2014  at  4:26:00 AM
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KENT STATE GOLDEN FLASHES (1-8)
at BOWLING GREEN FALCONS (6-3)

Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Bowling Green -13.5, Total: 52.5

Kent State attempts to pull off a big upset against Bowling Green, the top team in the MAC East, on Wednesday night.

It has been a rough go of things for the Golden Flashes this year with just one SU win coming against Army at home by a score of 39-17 as 3-point underdogs on Oct. 18. That was one of three games that they have covered on the season, as they are only 3-6 ATS overall, but have covered in three of the past five contests. That includes a cover in their 30-20 loss against Toledo last week as they were big 13-point underdogs at home but could not overcome an early 23-0 deficit behind three turnovers. Kent State did do well on the ground though, with 171 yards on just 19 rushing attempts (9.0 YPC). The Falcons have been the best team in their division with their one SU loss in conference coming against Western Michigan by a score of 26-14 on Oct. 18 as 3-point favorites. Overall on the season they are just 4-5 ATS and were able to cover the 3.5-points they were giving last week on the road against Akron as they secured a 27-10 victory. They were able to run all over the Zips with 219 yards on the ground (4.3 YPC) while forcing five turnovers in the win. Bowling Green dominated with a 41-22 victory as 6.5-point favorites on the road last season in this matchup, but had lost the previous three meetings (both SU and ATS). In last year’s contest, they totaled 576 yards of total offense compared to the 302 by Kent State while the only turnover in the game was a fumble lost by the Golden Flashes. Bettors should know that Kent State has gone 8-2 ATS (80%) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992, while Bowling Green is 8-1 ATS (89%) after outrushing its opponent by 125 or more yards in the previous game in the past three seasons. Some injuries to watch in this game include a thin offensive line for KSU with OLs Terrell Johnson (ankle, doubtful), Nathan Puthoff (knee, questionable) and Wayne Scott (stinger, probable) all banged up. LB Darius Redmond (concussion) is considered questionable for the Golden Flashes. The Falcons may also be without two key players in HB Travis Greene (ankle) and DL Zach Colvin (illness) who are both questionable for Wednesday.

Can Kent State keep the score close in this MAC matchup? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season.

Kent State’s offense has been putrid while putting up just 14.8 PPG (3rd-worst in FBS) behind a horrible rushing effort (85.1 YPG, 3rd-worst in nation) and 218.4 YPG from the passing game. QB Colin Reardon (1,884 pass yards, 5.9 YPA, 9 TD, 11 INT) has thrown a pick in four consecutive games while failing to throw a touchdown pass in his past two performances. Due to Reardon's struggles, the Flashes will start freshman QB Nathan Strock (13-for-30, 82 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) in Wednesday's matchup. Strock showed his dual-threat abilities last week versus Toledo with 67 passing yards and 71 rushing yards on just five carries (14.2 YPC). HB Nick Holley (400 rush yards, 1 TD) is the underwhelming top option in the ground game while gaining only 4.0 YPC, but had his best performance (95 rush yards, 1 TD) last week against Toledo. He helps out the passing game as well by grabbing 24 balls for 192 yards (8.0 avg) and a touchdown this year. Leading the KSU receivers is WR Casey Pierce (433 rec yards, 4 TD) who is averaging a low 10.3 yards per catch on a team-high 42 receptions, while WR Chris Humphrey (380 rec yards, 2 TD) has averaged 11.2 yards per catch on 34 grabs. On the other side of the ball, the defense has allowed opponents to score 29.4 YPG against them despite the consistent efforts of DBs Nate Holley (110 tackles) and Jordan Italiano (76 tackles, 1 INT).

The Falcons bring to the table a balanced offense that has gained 276.1 YPG through the air (31st in nation) and 171.3 YPG from the rushing game while scoring a solid 32.9 PPG. QB James Knapke (2,128 pass yards, 11 TD, 9 INT) had his first game without throwing an interception last week against Akron, but has been relied on heavily in his games while averaging 42 passing attempts per game in his eight starts. Unfortunately he has not been too productive while completing 58.3% of his throws for a weak 6.3 YPA. HB Travis Greene (644 yards, 8 TDs) is questionable for this contest and would sorely be missed if he can't suit up based on his triple-digit rushing yards three times this season while scoring a touchdown in six of his nine games. If he is not able to go, HB Fred Coppet (479 rush yards, 5 TD) will get the start, and he has been productive as the backup while averaging 5.3 YPC and going for 113 yards on 18 attempts (6.3 YPC) after Greene injured his ankle last week. WR Roger Lewis (742 rec yards, 4 TD) has 100+ receiving yards four different times this season while both WRs Ronnie Moore (512 rec yards, 4 TD) and Ryan Burbrink (499 rec yards, 3 TD) have also been productive. The Bowling Green defense has been subpar this season, giving up 33.6 PPG (24th-worst in FBS), but is doing much better in their past three games with only 16.3 PPG allowed. LB Gabe Martin (77 tackles, 1 INT, 9 TFL) and DB Nick Johnson (47 tackles, 4 INT) will be leaned on in this game to shut down the opposition and to force turnovers like the five takeaways the school had versus Akron last week.


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