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Pacers try to slow down surging Heat on Wednesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/12/2014  at  6:52:00 AM
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INDIANA PACERS (2-6)

at MIAMI HEAT (5-2)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:35 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -8, Total: 189.5

The Heat will go for their third straight victory when they host the Pacers on Wednesday night.

Indiana hosted the Jazz on Monday and came away with a 97-86 victory as a 3-point favorite. Despite being just 2-6 SU on the season, the Pacers are 5-3 ATS with six of the eight games going Over the total. The Heat, meanwhile, have won two straight games after beating the Mavericks 105-96 on Sunday as 8-point road underdogs. Miami is 5-2 ATS on the season, but its past three games have finished Under the total. Last season these teams met in the playoffs and Miami won the series in six games. The Heat have owned the Pacers in South Beach, going 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS over the past three seasons in American Airlines Arena. Eight of those 10 contests have gone Over the total. In the past two seasons, Indiana is 15-5 ATS in November games and 27-11 ATS in the first half of the season. However, the club is only 6-17 ATS when playing eight or more games in 14 days in that span. For those interested in playing the Total, Miami is 11-1 Over at home where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in the past two seasons. SG C.J. Miles (migraines) is listed as questionable for Indiana, while PF Chris Andersen (ribs), C Justin Hamilton (hip) and SF Danny Granger (hamstring) are all doubtful for Miami.

Can the Heat cover this big spread on Wednesday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Zach posted a 54% ATS mark (65-56-4) in NBA Best Bets last season, while StatFox Forecaster had a 53.4% ATS (207-181-12) in featured games last season. StatFox Scott is off to a great start to the 2014-15 campaign at 60% ATS (6-4), while StatFox Brian is 67% ATS (4-2) on NBA Best Bets in November.

The Pacers are coming off an impressive win over the Jazz and now turn their attention to a red-hot Miami team. C Roy Hibbert (14.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 3.4 BPG) has been playing like a man possessed this season. The big man is coming off of a game in which he scored 29 points, giving him two games of 20 or more points in the past three contests, but he must remain intense on the defensive end. He could see a lot of time matched up against PF Chris Bosh (23.6 PPG, 10.3 RPG). The next most important player for the Pacers this season has been PF Solomon Hill (12.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG). Hill, along with SF Chris Copeland (15.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG), is carrying the scoring load for this team. Copeland has consistently been scoring well, but Hill has come on strong in recent games. He’s averaging 20.5 PPG over the past two contests and is lethal shooting from mid-range. He’ll need to hold his own in a matchup against Luol Deng and his long wingspan. The deciding factor in this game will be whether or not the Pacers get production from their point guard position. Last game it was PG A.J Price (12.0 PPG, 3.0 APG) who got the hot hand for the Pacers with 22 points in just 25 minutes.

The Heat are off to a hot start this season and have shown no signs of missing LeBron James just yet. C Chris Bosh is playing like a legitimate MVP candidate and should be able to use his quickness to beat Roy Hibbert off the dribble in this game. SF Luol Deng (15.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.3 SPG) will need to do his best to lock up the Pacers new duo of wing scoring forwards, Chris Copeland and Solomon Hill. Deng is one of the better perimeter defenders in basketball and should be able to use his length to slow them down. SG Dwyane Wade (19.7 PPG, 6.9 APG, 1.3 SPG) has been playing extremely well to start the season for Miami. Wade looks very fit and his health was the only thing holding him back in recent years. He had 20 points and 10 assists in Sunday's win over the Mavericks and is now averaging 21.6 PPG, 7.0 APG and 4.0 RPG over the past five games. The Pacers lack solid on-ball defense at the shooting guard position, so Wade could be in for a huge night. One player who could really swing this game is SF Shawne Williams (10.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG). Williams has the ability to come in and play some solid defense at multiple positions, and he is also an excellent three-point shooter (42.4% threes).


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