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Miami looks to ruin season for No. 2 FSU Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 11/15/2014  at  5:36:00 AM
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FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (9-0)
at MIAMI HURRICANES (6-3)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Florida State -1.5, Total: 61.5

No. 2 Florida State attempts to keep its second perfect season in a row going on Saturday night when it heads south to take on Miami.

The Seminoles have not lost since late 2012, as they are riding a 25-game SU win streak and have their sights set on the inaugural 2014 playoffs despite being a poor 2-7 ATS this season. Last week they once again failed to cover the spread when they hosted Virginia and won 34-20 as 21-point favorites. Each team had three turnovers in the game as FSU outgained the Cavaliers 376-257 while getting 261 of those yards from the passing game. Florida State has already had three games this season where it won by a single score and this is the lowest line they have had. Miami has done well recently while winning SU in the past three games and is 5-4 ATS on the year. The 'Canes have actually won each time when favored and lost each time they were underdogs. In their last contest, they took on North Carolina as 16.5-point favorites at home and dominated with a 47-20 victory behind 494 yards of offense with 295 of those yards coming from the rushing attack. In that win, the Hurricanes held UNC to a meager six rushing yards on 32 attempts (0.2 YPC). The Seminoles have won SU in this matchup each of the past four years while being 2-2 ATS and winning by an average of 18.0 PPG. Last season, Florida State took an easy 41-14 victory at home while outgaining its opponent 517-275. Trends show that the Seminoles are 20-8 ATS (71%) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992 while Miami is 10-1 ATS (91%) after a win by 17 or more points in the past three seasons. FSU has benefited from staying healthy with no significant players set to miss this contest, while the Hurricanes will have some of their running depth possibly out, as HBs Joseph Yearby (hamstring) and Gus Edwards (ankle) are both listed as questionable.

Can Miami hand Florida State its first loss in nearly two calendar years? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season.

Florida State is certainly one of the elite offensive teams in college football and ranks 10th in FBS with 319.9 YPG from the air attack while adding 129.9 YPG from the ground game as the school has scored 37.9 PPG (16th in nation). QB Jameis Winston (2,540 pass yards, 17 TD, 11 INT) has attempted at least 31 passes in all but one of his eight games and has eclipsed 300 yards through the air four different times. He has had a touchdown pass in each one of his starts, but has also struggled with turnovers with five picks over the past two games. HB Karlos Williams (520 rush yards, 9 TD) has averaged just 4.4 YPC while scoring multiple touchdowns in three different games this year. Change-of-pace HB Dalvin Cook (416 rush yards, 5 TD) has arguably been more productive rusher with 5.3 YPC, and has two games of 100+ rushing yards. WR Rashad Greene (989 rec yards, 5 TD) has had double-digit receptions in three games this year while going over 100 yards six times and has averaged 13.9 yards per catch. Their defense has allowed 22.4 PPG this year and has given up 20 or more points in each of the past four games. LBs Reggie Northrup (72 tackles, 1 INT), Terrance Smith (65 tackles, 1 INT) and DL Mario Edwards Jr. (31 tackles, 3 sacks) will need to improve against a solid Miami team.

The Hurricanes have a balanced offense that has contributed 199.3 YPG on the ground (39th in FBS) and 237.6 YPG through the air while scoring 33.0 PPG. Freshman QB Brad Kaaya (2,087 pass yards, 20 TD, 9 INT) has been tremendous with at least one touchdown in each start this year while throwing a mere two picks in his past five games combined. He has connected on a solid 62% of his passes for 9.0 YPG while averaging just 207 YPG in his past five contests. HB Duke Johnson (1,213 rush yards, 9 TD) has scored a touchdown in each of the past eight games while averaging an impressive 168.6 YPG in his past five starts. He has had 20+ attempts three times on the year and may carry a heavy workload again as his two main backups are listed as questionable. There is not one Miami wideout who is a true go-to receiver, as six different players have between 18 and 29 receptions. WR Phillip Dorsett (572 rec yards, 6 TD) leads the team in yards and is getting an amazing 30.1 yards per catch while WR Clive Walford (395 rec yards, 6 TD) has a team-high 29 receptions and is tied with Dorsett for the team lead in touchdown catches. The defense for Miami has done well in 2014, allowing 21.9 PPG behind the play of LB Denzel Perryman (72 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and DL Thurston Armbrister (42 tackles, 5 sacks).


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