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NASCAR season concludes Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/16/2014  at  4:27:00 AM
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NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Ford EcoBoost 400

Sunday, November 16 – 3:00 p.m. EDT
Homestead-Miami Speedway – Homestead, FL

A new Sprint Cup Champion will be crowned on Sunday -- Kevin Harvick, Ryan Newman, Joey Logano or Denny Hamlin -- when the NASCAR season concludes at Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Ford EcoBoost 400. None of these four drivers have ever won a points championship, but last year Hamlin enjoyed his second career victory at this 1.5-mile, oval intermediate track was completed in 1995 with 18-to-20 degrees of banking on the turns, but just four degrees of banking on the straights. The frontstretch and backstretch both measure 1,760 feet (one-third of a mile). Greg Biffle and Tony Stewart are the only drivers with three career victories at Homestead.

Odds to Win Race

DriverOdds
Kevin Harvick9-to-2
Jimmie Johnson5-to-1
Jeff Gordon5-to-1
Brad Keselowski7-to-1
Joey Logano7-to-1
Matt Kenseth10-to-1
Kyle Busch10-to-1
Kyle Larson12-to-1
Denny Hamlin12-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr.15-to-1
Kurt Busch20-to-1
Jamie McMurray25-to-1
Kasey Kahne25-to-1
Ryan Newman30-to-1
Tony Stewart40-to-1
Carl Edwards60-to-1
Clint Bowyer60-to-1
Greg Biffle100-to-1
Brian Vickers100-to-1
Paul Menard100-to-1
Martin Truex Jr.100-to-1
Austin Dillon200-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.500-to-1
Aric Almirola500-to-1
Marcos Ambrose500-to-1
Trevor Bayne500-to-1
AJ Allmendinger500-to-1
Danica Patrick500-to-1
Justin Allgaier500-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver)300-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Denny Hamlin (12/1) - Of the four drivers left in the Chase, Hamlin clearly provides the best bang for your buck on Sunday. He doesn't prefer the 1.5-mile venues as much as some others in this field, but he has won twice in Miami in the past five starts and has two other third-place showings at this track. Hamlin has also raced very well recently to put himself in position to capture his first points championship with top-10 finishes in 12 of his past 18 starts. Hamlin is our pick to both win this race, and to bring home the Sprint Cup points title.

Carl Edwards (60/1) - His odds at this venue have more than tripled since last year's 18-to-1 price, which is great for bettors because Edwards has been outstanding at this track in his career with an average finish of 6.0 in his nine Homestead starts. This includes two poles (2005 and 2011), two wins (2008 and 2010), and three other top-5 finishes (2nd in 2011, 4th in 2005 and 5th in 2007). Edwards has also finished in the top-8 in two of the past three races on 1.5-mile tracks, placing 5th at Kansas and 8th at Charlotte. Although he's been too inconsistent to trust on a weekly basis this year, No. 99 has still won two races and tallied seven top-5's. That is why Edwards should get a decent sized wager on Sunday.

Greg Biffle (100/1) - Biffle went off at 30-to-1 in last year's race in Miami, which followed tiny 8-to-1 odds in 2012, so this 100-to-1 price is too sweet not to pounce on. Biffle has won three times at Homestead, taking the checkered flag in 2004, 2005 and 2006. He's also been close to winning more recent races at this venue with a 10th-place showing in 2010 and a finish of 5th in 2012. He's also done a nice job this season with 11 top-10's and has finished in the top-15 in nine of his past 16 starts. Biffle's extremely favorable odds clearly make him the driver with the best longshot odds on the board here.

Jeff Gordon (5/1) - Gordon appears to be the best chalk pick on Sunday. He has raced very well down the stretch with eight top-2 finishes in the past 16 starts, which includes a runner-up at Charlotte, which is also a 1.5-mile track. Gordon has also thrived at Homestead, finishing sixth or better in eight of his past dozen starts at this track, which includes the win in 2012. He has been able to do this despite starting among the top-10 drivers in just three of these races. Even at this price, Gordon is worthy of a small wager.


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