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Short-handed Bulls visit Clippers Monday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/17/2014  at  6:42:00 AM
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CHICAGO BULLS (7-3)

at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (5-3)

Tip-off: Monday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Los Angeles -5, Total: 198.5

The Bulls begin a long road trip on Monday night with their first stop being Staples Center to face the Clippers. However, they will begin the journey without star PG Derrick Rose (hamstring) and PF Pau Gasol (calf).

Chicago will play the next seven games away from home, but that might not be a bad thing considering the club is 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS) on the road this season. In these away tilts, the Bulls are outscoring the host teams 104.6 PPG to 95.8 PPG, and outshooting them 49% FG to 41% FG. Rose has played only three of the team's eight games this month, and was sorely missed on Saturday when his team shot a season-low 42.2% FG and lost 99-90 at home to 8.5-point underdog Indiana. Los Angeles is wrapping up a four-game homestand that has been mostly successful (2-1 SU), and on Saturday, the club earned its first ATS win of the season (1-7 ATS) with a 120-107 pummeling of Phoenix. The Clippers are 4-2 SU (1-5 ATS) at Staples Center this season where they have scored only 100.5 PPG, which is much lower than the 111.0 PPG they have tallied on the road. Chicago hasn't beaten L.A. since December 30, 2011, dropping four straight meetings (SU and ATS) by 21, 5, 39 and 17 points. That 39-point drubbing (121-82) occurred last Nov. 24 in L.A. as the Clips outshot the Bulls 58.5% FG to 39.5% FG. Despite the lopsided series recently, the Bulls have a three-star FoxSheets trend in their favor showing that good defenses (41.5% to 43.5% FG allowed) that are road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing a poor defensive team (45.5% to 47.5% FG allowed) are 38-12 ATS (76%) in the past five seasons. However, the Clippers benefit from Chicago being just 25-44 ATS (36%) in the first half of the season since the start of the 2012-13 campaign. The only other significant injury besides Rose and Gasol is Los Angeles SG Chris Douglas-Roberts, who is out indefinitely with a strained Achilles.

Can the Clippers hand the Bulls their first road loss of the season? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a 61% ATS record (28-18) in featured games this season. StatFox Scott is also off to a great start to the 2014-15 campaign at 64% ATS (9-5) in his Best Bets, while StatFox Gary is close behind at 60% ATS (9-6). StatFox Brian is 60% ATS (6-4) on NBA Best Bets in November.

Before Saturday's setback, Chicago had been playing great basketball by winning six of its previous seven games. Despite missing PG Derrick Rose (18.0 PPG, 5.4 APG) for the majority of the season, the club is averaging a strong 102.2 PPG (11th in NBA) on 46.7% FG (7th in league), and those numbers are way up from last season's 93.4 PPG on 43.2% FG, which were both the worst offensive marks in the NBA. A big reason for this offensive turnaround is the addition of PF Pau Gasol (18.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 2.5 BPG). Gasol was slowed by a calf injury on Saturday, which led to season lows in points (12) and FG Pct. (27%) against a great Pacers defense. Gasol will certainly be missed on Monday considering his 17.2 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 3.5 APG and 1.4 BPG in 40 lifetime meetings with the Clippers. The player expected to do the most scoring with these two players out is SG Jimmy Butler (21.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.4 APG), who is shooting 53% FG and 39% threes this season. Butler is knocking down 58% on the road this season where he's averaging a well-rounded 20.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 5.0 APG in four games. PF Taj Gibson (12.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.1 BPG) will replace Gasol in the lineup and look to improve greatly from last season's series with L.A. when he shot 36% FG to get his 12.0 PPG. The Bulls also need more scoring from C Joakim Noah (7.9 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.5 BPG), who is shooting a career-low 45.6% FG this season. Noah had a strong series versus the Clips last season with 10.0 PPG (67% FG), 8.5 RPG and 4.5 APG. His defense has remained top-notch though, and is a big reason why Chicago allows only 97.9 PPG (12th in NBA) on 42.8% FG (6th in league).

The Clippers have not been as efficient on offense as they were last season when they averaged a league-best 108.0 PPG on 47.3% FG (3rd in NBA), but they aren't too far off that pace with 103.1 PPG (9th in NBA) on 45.7% FG (12th in league). L.A. is coming off a season-high 120 points where it drained a season-high 52.9% FG in Saturday's 13-point win over Phoenix. All five starters had at least 12 points in that victory with the usual suspects of PG Chris Paul (18.0 PPG, 10.1 APG, 5.3 RPG, 2.4 SPG) and PF Blake Griffin (23.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 3.6 APG) leading the way. Paul finished with 32 points (10-of-13 FG, 5-of-6 threes), nine assists and five boards, while Griffin contributed 19 points (7-of-12 FG), eight boards, four assists and a game-high +25 rating. Both players should feast on second-stringers with both Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol not playing. Although L.A. continues to get big scoring numbers out of SGs Jamal Crawford (17.1 PPG) and J.J. Redick (13.5 PPG) the guards are shooting only 39% FG and 41% FG, respectively. However, the duo lit up the Bulls in the most recent meeting on Jan. 24 with a combined 37 points on 7-of-12 threes. C DeAndre Jordan (9.0 PPG, 11.9 RPG, 2.8 BPG, 1.6 SPG) has a tough assignment with the quicker Joakim Noah, but Jordan has a remarkable 73% FG clip (32-of-44) for the season. Los Angeles is not known as a great defensive club, and this season it is allowing 102.4 PPG on 46.2% FG, which both rank 21st in the NBA.


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