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No. 4 Duke, No. 18 MSU collide Tuesday in Indianapolis
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/18/2014  at  5:27:00 AM
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MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (1-0)

vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS (2-0)

State Farm Champions Classic
Bankers Life Fieldhouse - Indianapolis, IN
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Duke -6.5

No. 4 Duke looks to stay hot when it takes on No. 19 Michigan State to open the State Farm Champions Classic on Tuesday night in Indianapolis.

The Blue Devils ended last season with a humiliating seven-point loss to 14th-seeded Mercer in the NCAA Tournament, but they have started out the 2014-15 campaign on fire, knocking off their first two opponents by 69 points and 50 points. Duke is averaging 111.0 PPG so far with a blistering 62.6% FG clip, including 47.2% from three-point land. The Spartans had a much tougher opener, winning by just five at Navy despite being favored by 17.5 points. Michigan State shot pretty well at 47.2% FG (8-of-19 threes), but turned the ball over 15 times, which was five more than the Midshipmen. These schools are meeting for the fourth time this decade with the Blue Devils winning all three matchups, but the Spartans holding the 2-1 ATS advantage. When these teams last met in the 2013 NCAA Tournament, Duke prevailed 71-61 thanks to 39% threes (7-of-18) and 92% free throws (24-of-26). Although Michigan State is 27-13 ATS (68%) as a neutral-court underdog (or pick) under head coach Tom Izzo, the Blue Devils benefit from the trend showing that neutral-court teams in the first five games of the season after closing out the previous season with 4+ straight ATS losses, in a game involving two winning teams from the previous season, are 22-4 ATS (85%) in the past five seasons. Michigan State has two injuries of concern -- SG Alvin Ellis III (ankle, doubtful) and SF Javon Bess (foot, out) -- while Duke is completely healthy for this showdown.

Can Michigan State slow down Duke on Tuesday night? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks. The experts are coming off an unbelievable 2013-14 college basketball season where the five men combined for a 60% ATS record (332-225-19), including 62% ATS (56-35-3) in the NCAA Tournament. StatFox Brian led the way with a 69% ATS record (76-34-4) on this season, which included a 77% ATS run (44-13-4) from Jan. 17 to the end of the season. StatFox Dave was 74% ATS (14-5) in Best Bets for the 2014 NCAA Tournament to finish at 62% ATS for the season. StatFox Scott finished 59% ATS (65-46-5) for season Best Bets, while StatFox Gary was close behind with a 57% ATS mark (64-49-2) in college basketball Best Bets. The experts have started out the 2014-15 season with a bang, posting a 65% ATS mark (13-7) in Best Bets through Sunday. All five experts are 50% ATS or better, led by Gary's 3-0 ATS mark.

Michigan State had only two players score more than six points in Friday's opener, led by PG Travis Trice who poured in 25 points (8-of-14 FG, 5-of-6 threes), five rebounds and five assists in the victory. As Duke will want to speed up the tempo of this game, Trice will be counted on to get his team in the half-court sets and make the extra passes before taking the high-percentage shots. Swingman Branden Dawson also had a strong season opener with 12 points (6-of-10 FG), eight rebounds and three steals, but he did not get to the foul line once in his 27 minutes. SG Denzel Valentine also failed to get to the charity stripe and made just 2-of-10 FG (1-of-5 threes) with three turnovers. But Valentine wasn't completely useless, as he recorded a team-high six assists and pulled down three rebounds. With starting SG Alvin Ellis III injured early in Friday's opener, Cleveland State transfer SG Bryn Forbes logged a lot of playing time that Ellis would have gotten. Forbes didn't do much with his 27 minutes though, scoring just five points on 1-of-8 shooting (1-of-6 threes) with zero rebounds and zero assists. A key player in this game will be PF Matt Costello, who scored six points with seven rebounds versus Navy, but he also got into foul trouble with four personals. The Spartans need the experienced 6-foot-9 junior Costello on the court to combat Duke's athleticism in the paint.

Duke has five players averaging double-figure scoring after two games, led by C Jahlil Okafor (18.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.5 BPG) who has made 17-of-20 shots (85%), but also has a team-worst five turnovers. The 6-foot-11 freshman sensation should have another monster game versus a Spartans team with nobody taller than 6-foot-9. Another freshman that is off to a great start to his college career is SF Justise Winslow (16.5 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.0 BPG), who is shooting 55% from the floor, including 3-of-5 threes. The other three double-digit scorers for Duke -- PG Quinn Cook (15.5 PPG, 4.5 APG), SG Grayson Allen (13.5 PPG, 2.5 SPG) and PG Tyus Jones (10.5 PPG, 6.0 APG) -- are all shooting at least 60% from the field. The Blue Devils are usually easy to beat on the boards, but 6-foot-9 PF Amile Jefferson (9.5 PPG) has been cleaning the glass nicely all season with 19 rebounds, including 10 on the offensive end. Duke's defense looks to be improved from last season, and it is holding opponents to just 51.5 PPG on 38.1% FG.


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