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Rockets favored big over Lakers on Wednesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/19/2014  at  7:52:00 AM
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LOS ANGELES LAKERS (2-9)

at HOUSTON ROCKETS (9-2)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:35 p.m. ET
Line: Houston -12.5, Total: 209

The Lakers try to win back-to-back road games as heavy underdogs to the host Rockets on Wednesday night.

Los Angeles opened a three-game road trip on Tuesday in Atlanta with a surprising 114-109 outright win as an 8.5-point underdog. The Lakers shot a season-high 54.0% FG in that victory which ended a four-game losing skid. Houston, on the other hand, has gone ice-cold during a three-game ATS losing skid (2-1 SU) where it has scored just 83.3 PPG on 36% FG. The Rockets turned the ball over 21 times in Monday's 119-93 blowout loss in Memphis. In recent years, Houston has really had the Lakers’ number, going 6-2 (SU and ATS), which includes four blowouts in the 2014 calendar year by 14, 26, 15 and 18 points in the season opener on Oct. 28. In that contest, the Rockets shot better from three-point range (41%) than L.A. did from inside the arc (36%). The Lakers have a huge trend in their favor stating that double-digit road underdogs with a good offense (99+ PPG) after 2+ straight Overs are 36-9 ATS (80%) in the past five seasons. However, Houston is 20-6 ATS (77%) at home under Kevin McHale after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their previous six games ATS. The Lakers will be missing SG Wayne Ellington (personal) and PF Ryan Kelly (hamstring) in this contest, while Rockets PF Terrence Jones (leg), who recorded a double-double (16 points, 13 rebounds) in the season-opening win over L.A., also remains sidelined.

Can the Rockets cover the huge spread on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a 59% ATS record (30-21) in featured games this season. StatFox Gary is off to a great start to the 2014-15 campaign at 63% ATS (10-6) in his Best Bets, while StatFox Scott is close behind at 56% ATS (9-7). StatFox Brian is 64% ATS (7-4) on NBA Best Bets in November.

The Lakers have scored a healthy amount of points (102.7 PPG, 9th in NBA), but are shooting a subpar 44.3% FG (20th in league) and 30.9% threes (27th in NBA). Defensively, L.A. has been shredded for a league-worst 111.8 PPG on 49.2% FG (2nd-worst in NBA) and 40.9% threes (3rd-worst in league). After a miserable 1-for-14 shooting night on Friday versus the Spurs, SG Kobe Bryant (27.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.7 APG) has found his stroke with 36.0 PPG on 48% FG in the past two games. Bryant had 19 points on a subpar 6-of-17 shooting in the season-opening loss to the Rockets. F/G Nick Young missed the first 10 games of the season with a thumb injury, but played very well in his season debut on Tuesday with 17 points (6-of-10 FG) and five rebounds in 28 minutes. He was even better in three meetings with Houston last season when he dropped 22.7 PPG (50% FG, 43% threes) in just 27.4 MPG of action. C Jordan Hill (13.8 PPG, 9.6 RPG) is having a career season in terms of scoring, rebounding, assists (2.0 APG) and free throws (74%), and enters this contest with three straight double-doubles. PF Carlos Boozer (13.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG) is coming off his first double-double of the season versus the Hawks (20 points, 10 boards), and he scored 17 points with seven boards in the Oct. 28 loss to Houston, which brings his career numbers in this matchup to a strong 15.1 PPG and 9.5 RPG.

The Rockets were the second-highest scoring team in the NBA last season with 108.0 PPG, but this season, they are netting only 97.8 PPG (19th in league) on 42.6% FG (26th in NBA). However, the defense is much improved from last season when Houston surrendered 103.7 PPG on 44.4% FG, as it is allowing only 91.6 PPG (2nd in NBA) on 41.5% FG (also 2nd in league) so far this season. SG James Harden (23.7 PPG, 6.9 APG, 6.5 RPG, 1.7 SPG) is happy to return home after shooting a miserable 6-for-25 on the two-game road trip. He's also pleased to face the same Lakers team he dominated on Oct. 28 with 32 points and six assists. Harden drove through the lane at will in the season opener and got to the foul line 16 times, converting 15-of-16 free throws. Since joining the Rockets in 2012-13, Harden has 29.2 PPG, 7.0 APG, 5.4 RPG and 1.9 SPG in nine meetings with Los Angeles. C Dwight Howard (18.8 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 2.3 BPG) is still horrendous from the charity stripe, shooting a career-low 46% FT this season. But he's been outstanding at Toyota Center, treating the Rockets fans to 22.3 PPG (63% FG), 13.3 RPG and 3.7 BPG in three home games. He's also been solid versus the Lakers since joining Houston with 17.0 PPG and 12.8 RPG. SF Trevor Ariza (14.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.8 SPG) has scored in double-figures in four straight games, tallying 14.8 PPG and 5.3 RPG, while PG Patrick Beverley (10.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG) has also played well since returning from a hamstring injury with 22 points (53% FG), 10 rebounds, four assists and zero turnovers in 51 minutes over two games.


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