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No. 8 Ole Miss faces another tough test Saturday at Arkansas
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 11/22/2014  at  5:28:00 AM
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OLE MISS REBELS (8-2)
at ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (5-5)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Ole Miss -3, Total: 45.5

No. 8 Ole Miss looks to stop a two-game skid against SEC opponents on Saturday afternoon when it visits a confident Arkansas club.

The Rebels had their sights set on the NCAA Playoffs with a perfect 7-0 start (SU and ATS) to the year, but losses to both LSU and Auburn has set them back. They fell by an average of just 3.5 PPG against those two opponents while being favored in each contest, and with their 48-0 victory as 52.5-point favorites over Presbyterian last week, they have now failed to cover in three consecutive tries. Ole Miss had no issues with the Blue Hose as it amassed 640 yards of offense on them while holding their opponent to a meager 156 yards and two turnovers. The Rebels rushing attack was unstoppable with 402 yards on 36 attempts (11.2 YPC) while two halfbacks eclipsed 100 yards. Arkansas is a perfect 4-0 (SU and ATS) when playing outside of the SEC, but has been overmatched in the conference with a poor 1-5 SU record, while actually doing well for bettors at 4-2 ATS. Each SEC opponent it has faced has been ranked among the top-20 in the nation at the time of the game as it has dropped those contests by an average of 10.4 PPG while being within one score of Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi State. Last week the Razorbacks pulled out a nice victory against LSU at home with a 17-0 finish as two-point favorites. It was their first SU win against an SEC opponent in 18 attempts as they held the Tigers scoreless for the first time since the National Championship game in 2012. The Razorbacks held LSU to a putrid 123 yards of offense in the contest while converting an impressive 10-of-17 third downs. The Rebels have won both of the past two seasons in this matchup (1-1 ATS), with an average margin of victory of 6.5 PPG. Last year they met in Oxford, as the Rebels were 17-point favorites and outscored Arkansas 34-24 behind 419 passing yards. Trends show that Ole Miss is 20-7 ATS (74%) in games played on turf over the past three seasons while the Razorbacks are a perfect 6-0 ATS following a game where they forced one or less turnovers this year. The Rebels took a hit a few weeks ago when they lost WR Laquon Treadwell (ankle) for the season, and also have HB I’Tavius Mathers (concussion) listed as questionable for this contest. On the other side of the ball, Arkansas has no significant omissions from this contest due to injury.

Can Ole Miss end its losing skid on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season.

Ole Miss gets it done in both facets of its offense that scores 33.4 PPG, producing 272.7 YPG through the air (33rd in FBS), while rushing the ball for 174.4 YPG. QB Bo Wallace (2,554 pass yards, 22 TD, 8 INT) has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each game this season while providing multiple scores between passing and rushing in 8-of-10 contests. He has thrown for more than 300 yards four times this season, but just once against an SEC opponent, while getting double-digit rushing opportunities in five of his past six contests, leading to 233 yards (2.4 YPC) and four touchdowns on the year. HB Jaylen Walton (398 rush yards, 4 TD) has had at least 10 carries in four games this year while contributing as a receiver with 159 yards and 2 TD through the air. He is joined in the backfield by HB Jordan Wilkins (311 rush yards, 1 TD), and he had 171 yards and a touchdown in only 10 carries last week against Presbyterian. WRs Vince Sanders (647 rec yards, 6 TD) and Cody Core (437 rec yards, 5 TD) will have to pick up the slack with Treadwell out for the season, and Sanders has been impressive with 17.5 yards per catch while eclipsing the 100-yard mark in each of the past two games. As the offense has been solid, the defense is the real strength of this team, leading the nation in scoring defense (11.9 PPG) by giving up more than 20 points just once on the year. DB Senquez Golson (9 INT, 29 tackles, 1 TD) and DL Marquis Haynes (6.5 sacks, 24 tackles) have been the big playmakers on this side of the ball for the Rebels.

Despite having trouble against tough SEC opponents, the Razorbacks have a solid offense which has gained 232.9 rushing YPG (22nd in nation) while adding 199.9 YPG through the air, leading to 34.0 PPG (36th in FBS). QB Brandon Allen (1,905 pass yards, 15 TD, 5 INT) has been solid this season while eclipsing 200 passing yards in four of his past five games, but has failed to throw a touchdown in each of the past two games. HBs Jonathan Williams (932 rush yards, 11 TD) and Alex Collins (886 rush yards, 11 TD) create a tough matchup for opposing defenses, as they have averaged a solid 6.0 YPC together in 304 attempts. The pair has seven triple-digit rushing performances between them, while each back has double-digit carries in the past four contests. WRs Keon Hatcher (435 rec yards, 3 TD) and Hunter Henry (417 rec yards, 2 TD) each have 30+ receptions as they lead all receivers. The defense for this program has done well while allowing fewer than 20 points in each of the past three games and are giving up an average of only 22.2 PPG (27th in nation) on the year. LB Martell Spaight (97 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 1 INT) leads the team in tackles this season and will have a tough task ahead against the Rebels this week.


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