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No. 9 UCLA hosts No. 19 USC Saturday
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Published: 11/22/2014  at  5:02:00 AM
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USC TROJANS (7-3)
at UCLA BRUINS (8-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: UCLA -3.5, Total: 61

With four straight wins, No. 9 UCLA is still alive in the NCAA playoff hunt, but needs a victory against No. 19 USC on Saturday night to remain in contention.

This game is always played at a high level because of the Los Angeles rivalry. This year though, it is even more important because of the conference standings implications. The Trojans have won four of their past five contests and currently lead the red-hot Bruins by one-half-game in the South. USC has lost some heartbreakers this season, with all three of its defeats coming by a combined 13 points. The Trojans have done a nice job against ranked teams this year though, going 2-1, with road wins at Arizona and Stanford. UCLA had lost 12 of 13 games in this rivalry before Jim Mora took over as head coach, and he has led the Bruins to two straight wins in this series, including a 35-14 blowout last season. Quarterback Brett Hundley totaled 288 yards and two touchdowns in that victory. After two losses and two closer-than-expected games against California and Colorado, the Bruins have bounced back with double-digit victories against both Arizona and Washington. However, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two straight conference wins facing an opponent that just won by double-digits on the road are just 11-43 ATS (20%) over the past 10 seasons. But Trojans head coach Steve Sarkisian is 21-9 ATS (70%) after an ATS defeat in his coaching career.

Which school will prevail in this crucial conference matchup? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season.

The Trojans have had an up-and-down season, but one thing that has remained consistent is the passing game, which ranks 19th in the nation with 294.9 YPG. USC also ranks 29th in scoring (35.2 PPG) and 66th in rushing (163.1 YPG). Leading the offense is QB Cody Kessler (2,919 passing yards, 29 TD, 3 INT), who has completed a terrific 70% of his passes this season. The USC offense is very capable of big plays, but Kessler has done a tremendous job of not taking too many risks deep downfield. A big reason why the passing game is so effective is because of the threat of RB Javorius Allen (217 carries, 1,184 yards, 8 TD). He is a physical running back who can wear out a defense. Allen forces the opposing defenses to put another safety in the box, opening up favorable matchups on the outside. WR Nelson Agholor (82 rec, 1,079 yards, 10 TD) has emerged as one of the top playmakers in the country. Anytime that Kessler needs a big completion, he is looking Agholor’s way. He is also a key part of the Trojans return game. WR JuJu Smith (42 catches, 531 yards, 5 TD) appears to be the next great receiver at USC, drawing comparisons to Marqise Lee. Smith is speedster who can get behind the defense, but he is also a crisp route runner. The offense has been solid all season, but there is a lot of star power on a defense that ranks 38th in points allowed (23.3 PPG). Leading the way is DE Leonard Williams (6 sacks, 62 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3 FF), who is one of the best players in college football, and a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick in a future NFL draft. He is a rare combination of size and speed, and is nearly impossible to block. LB Hayes Pullard (75 tackles, 8 PD, 2.5 TFL) is the leading tackler on the team, taking advantage of the double teams that Williams demands. Sophomore S Su’a Cravens (52 tackles, 14 TFL, 5 sacks) is another star on the USC defense, and he will have to be ready to get after a quarterback who rushed for two touchdowns against the Trojans last year.

Entering this game, UCLA ranks 29th in FBS rushing (215.8 YPG), 31st in passing (273.4 YPG) and 32nd in scoring (34.7 PPG). Junior QB Brett Hundley (2,547 passing yards, 564 rushing yards, 24 total TD) is one of the top quarterbacks in the country, continuing to show he can make plays with both his legs and his arm. Like Kessler, he is very accurate throwing the ball, completing a stellar 72% of his passes. While he still has run effectively this season (4.2 YPC), he has not had to carry the ball as much because of the emergence of RB Paul Perkins (189 carries, 1,169 yards, 6 TD). The least amount of yards that he has rushed for in a game this year is 78, while rumbling for at least 100 yards in four games. He is also a threat through the air with 24 receptions this season. WR Jordan Payton (58 catches, 839 yards, 7 TD) is Hundley’s top receiver and a nice combination of size and speed. He does a great job of making plays after the catch. The Bruins defense has a lot of playmakers, but has been inconsistent at times, ranking 79th in the nation in points allowed (27.9 PPG). LB Eric Kendricks (114 tackles, 6 TFL, 2 INT) is the leading tackler on the team by a wide margin, and he does a great job of roaming all over the field. LB Myles Jack (69 tackles, 6 TFL) has excellent speed, and he will have the task of trying to slow down Allen. Junior DB Ishmael Adams (33 tackles, 2 INT) is a playmaker at the cornerback position who also can make his presence felt in the return game.


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