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Mavericks favored big over Knicks Wednesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/26/2014  at  4:43:00 AM
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NEW YORK KNICKS (4-11)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (10-5)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:35 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -12.5, Total: 200

The Knicks, who will likely be without Carmelo Anthony, look to avoid yet another losing streak when they visit the Mavericks on Wednesday night.

Anthony was unable to finish Monday's game in Houston due to back spasms and is doubtful to return to action on Wednesday. In that contest which kicked off a three-game road trip, the Knicks fell 91-86 as 6-point underdogs, making them 1-6 SU (3-4 ATS) away from home this season. Dallas won six straight games (4-0-2 ATS) from Nov. 11 to Nov. 21, but has hit a rough patch with two straight losses (SU and ATS). The Mavs most recently fell 111-100 as 14-point home favorites against the Pacers on Monday night. This will be the first game played between the Knicks and Mavericks since the two teams swapped PG Jose Calderon (6.0 PPG, 4.0 APG), C Samuel Dalembert (3.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG) and PG Shane Larkin (5.7 PPG, 2.7 APG, 1.4 SPG) for C Tyson Chandler and PG Raymond Felton (hasn’t played). Over the past three seasons, these teams have split victories SU, but New York is 3-1 ATS in those contests. However, the Mavericks have won 14 of the past 17 home games in this series, and they’ve covered in 11 of those games. New York is 0-6 ATS after playing a road game this season, but the club is 29-22 ATS over the past three seasons after two straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds. The Mavericks are 18-5 ATS over the past three seasons after a game being outrebounded by an opponent by 15 or more. Anthony is the only injury of note in this game.

Can the Mavericks cover the monster spread on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a 61% ATS record (39-25) in featured games this season. StatFox Gary is off to a fast start to the 2014-15 campaign at 57% ATS (12-9) in his Best Bets, while StatFox Zach is 5-2 ATS in Best Bets since Nov. 15.

The Knicks will likely need to win this game without SF Carmelo Anthony (23.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.2 APG), as the league's sixth-leading scorer is dealing with serious discomfort in his back. Without Anthony, SG Iman Shumpert (11.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.5 APG) could be the guy the Knicks rely on most to score the basketball. Shumpert got off to a hot start this season, but has cooled down as of late with three straight games of scoring seven or less points. PF Amar’e Stoudemire (11.7 PPG, 7.4 RPG) could also be in for an increase in touches this game. Stoudemire is averaging 13.2 PPG and 6.6 RPG over the past five games and should be able to score against Dirk Nowitzki, who is not much of a defender. SG J.R. Smith (10.0 PPG, 3.4 APG) would normally be the person that the Knicks would go to as their primary scorer with Anthony out, but he has been in Derek Fisher’s doghouse recently. Smith hasn’t played more than 25 minutes in three straight contests, but he’ll likely need to do so in this game. SG Tim Hardaway Jr. (9.1 PPG) could be given a big chance in this game, as he is the best pure scorer on the team outside of Anthony. He’ll need to play more than 25 minutes, however, if he is going to find any sort of rhythm as a volume shooter.

The Mavericks are looking to snap out of their recent funk and pick up a victory over a dreadful Knicks team. PF Dirk Nowitzki (19.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG) had 22 points and 11 rebounds in a loss against the Pacers on Monday, and he should be able to do more damage against the Knicks. New York is weak inside, and Nowitzki will see plenty of time being guarded by poor defenders like Amar’e Stoudemire. SF Chandler Parsons (14.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG) could be the player that benefits the most from Carmelo Anthony being out. Parsons will now have a major size advantage at the small forward position and should be able to find a way to put up some solid numbers in this game. SG Monta Ellis (19.8 PPG, 4.7 APG, 1.1 SPG) had 24 points and six assists in a loss to the Pacers last game, and should be able to put up a similar line against a Knicks team that does not defend guards well. Iman Shumpert could give him a little bit of trouble, but Ellis is much faster and will find a way to get himself into the lane. C Tyson Chandler (10.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG) could have a big game in this one as he is a player who can really bring a lot of energy on any given night. Also, this particular matchup means a lot to him, as the Knicks traded Chandler in what they claimed was a much-needed locker room overhaul, and Chandler takes pride in his ability to lead teams. He’ll be playing angry on Wednesday night.


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