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Packers hot red-hot Patriots on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/30/2014  at  5:31:00 AM
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (9-2)
at GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 58

Two of the hottest teams in football clash when the Patriots head to Lambeau Field on Sunday to take on the Packers.

New England defeated the Lions 34-9 as 7-point home favorites last week for its seventh straight SU win, covering in six of those contests. The Packers are hot as well, beating Minnesota 24-21 as 7-point road favorites last week for their third straight SU win and seventh victory in the past eight games (6-2 ATS). The last time these teams played was in December of 2010, when the Patriots won 31-27 as 14.5-point home favorites. Since 1992, the Patriots are 84-48 ATS as an underdog and 60-40 ATS as a road underdog. They are also 71-49 ATS after allowing 14 points or less in their last game in that timeframe. Green Bay, meanwhile, is 10-2 ATS off an extremely close road win of three points or less since 1992. Another thing worth noting is that the Packers are 6-0 ATS in games played on grass this season, and New England is 0-6 ATS on grass over the past two seasons. The most notable injuries for this game are Patriots DT Dominique Easley (knee) and Packers LB Nick Perry (shoulder) and TE Brandon Bostick (hip) who are all questionable to play.

Which team will extend its winning streak on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained hot over the past 10 weeks, combining for a 56% ATS mark (85-68). StatFox Scott is 63% ATS (25-15) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 58% ATS (28-20) on the season. StatFox Dave is 57% ATS (25-19) in Best Bets during these 10 weeks to improve to 55% ATS (29-24) on the season, while StatFox Brian continues to roll in NFL Totals with a strong 60% record (21-14) for the season. StatFox Gary is 8-2 ATS in his past three weeks of NFL Best Bets.

The Patriots have not lost a game since people were questioning whether or not this team was still going to make the playoffs after a loss to Kansas City in Week 4. QB Tom Brady (2,998 pass yards, 26 TD, 6 INT) is coming off of a big game against the Lions, who have the best defense in football this season. Brady threw for 349 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in the blowout victory. He should be able to do some serious damage against a much weaker Packers defense. One guy who was a monster against the Lions was RB LeGarrette Blount (276 rush yards, 2 TD), who the Patriots just signed after the running back was cut from the Steelers. Blount has played for the Patriots before and knows the system well. He rushed for 78 yards and two touchdowns last game and could be utilized against a Green Bay defense that is allowing 136.7 rushing yards per game (30th in NFL). RB Shane Vereen (340 yards, 1 TD) will also be heavily used out of the backfield, but he is more dangerous as a pass-catching back. Vereen caught eight passes for 48 yards against the Lions and will see more snaps than any other running back in this offense going forward.

It wasn’t necessarily pretty, but the Packers picked up a solid road victory over the Vikings last week. QB Aaron Rodgers (2,957 pass yards, 30 TD, 3 INT) threw for 209 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in the victory. Rodgers has now thrown for 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his past three games. RB Eddie Lacy (672 rush yards, 6 TD) was the recipient of one of those touchdown passes. He caught two passes for 13 yards in the victory, and also rushed for 125 yards and another touchdown. Lacy has really been on a tear for the Packers recently, totaling 4 TD over the past four weeks and is really emerging in the passing game. WRs Randall Cobb (58 rec, 837 yards, 10 TD) and Jordy Nelson (68 rec, 1,066 yards, 9 TD) will be looking to find the end zone after not doing so last game. One of them will, however, draw Patriots star CB Darrelle Revis (2 INT) in coverage in this game. Whoever is free from “Revis Island” should be able to produce some big numbers in this game. This Packers defense has been extremely solid recently, allowing just 18.3 PPG over the past three weeks. The Patriots offense is another animal though, and they’ll need to be ready for a very balanced attack to deal with.


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