Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -1.5, Total: 49.5

The Broncos visit the Chiefs on Sunday night for a matchup with major implications atop the AFC West.

Denver barely beat Miami last week, hanging on for a 39-36 home win, while Kansas City gave Oakland it's first win of the season in a humiliating 24-20 defeat. The Broncos have won five straight and seven of the past meetings when facing the Chiefs. But K.C. has won three straight home meetings in this series and has covered in four of the past five. Denver QB Peyton Manning threw for an average of 363 yards per game with six touchdowns and two interceptions in two wins over the Chiefs last season. This Kansas City defense is improved though, allowing a league-low 328 total yards per game. Denver is 23-9 ATS in games played on a grass field over the past three seasons, and 11-3 ATS after having won two out of its previous three games over the past two seasons. They Broncos are, however, just 17-34 ATS after gaining 6+ yards per play in two straight games since 1992. TE Julius Thomas (ankle) and CB Aqib Talib (hamstring) are both questionable for Denver in this game, while the Chiefs will dearly miss S Eric Berry, who was placed on IR earlier in the week with a major undisclosed illness.

Which AFC West team will win pick up this crucial victory on Sunday night? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained hot over the past 10 weeks, combining for a 56% ATS mark (85-68). StatFox Scott is 63% ATS (25-15) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 58% ATS (28-20) on the season. StatFox Dave is 57% ATS (25-19) in Best Bets during these 10 weeks to improve to 55% ATS (29-24) on the season, while StatFox Brian continues to roll in NFL Totals with a strong 60% record (21-14) for the season. StatFox Gary is 8-2 ATS in his past three weeks of NFL Best Bets.

The Broncos are coming off of a very close victory over the Dolphins and they are going to need to be much better defensively going forward. One thing they have going for them is that they are allowing just 75.5 rushing yards per game (2nd in NFL) and that kind of rushing defense should help slow down Jamaal Charles. Offensively, this team should have no trouble scoring despite Kansas City’s excellent passing defense. QB Peyton Manning (3,558 pass yards, 34 TD, 9 INT) threw for 257 yards with four touchdowns and no picks against one of the best passing defenses in the league last week and he should be able to do it again on Sunday. Manning was looking for WR Demaryius Thomas (82 rec, 1,192 yards, 9 TD) often when throwing last week and Thomas certainly delivered with 10 catches for 87 yards and three touchdowns. The 87 yards was Thomas’ lowest total since Week 3 against the Seahawks, as he had gone over 100 receiving yards in seven straight contests, but the three touchdowns more than made up for it. Another player who really has looked great for the Broncos is RB C.J. Anderson (368 rush yards, 1 TD). Anderson rushed for 167 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries against the Dolphins. He also added four catches for 28 yards. Anderson should be a huge factor in this game, as the Chiefs rushing defense has been very suspect this season.

Kansas City is coming off an embarrassing loss, as it gave the Raiders their only win of the season last week. They now face a Broncos team that beat them 24-17 in Denver in Week 2. QB Alex Smith (2,211 pass yards, 13 TD, 4 INT) threw for 255 yards and rushed for 42 yards in that game, but was unable to find the end zone. He’ll need to take care of the football and could be called upon to throw more if this game ends up turning into a high-scoring affair. RB Jamaal Charles (772 rush yards, 8 TD) didn’t play in the first meeting between these teams and he could prove to be a big difference maker. RB Knile Davis (423 yards, 5 TD) started in that game and rushed for 79 yards with two touchdowns. He also added six catches for 26 yards. Charles is much more explosive than Davis and should be able to find success against this defense. This Chiefs defense is what could ultimately be why they win this game. They are allowing just 198.9 passing yards per game (1st in NFL) and if they can limit Peyton Manning by pressuring him, then they should have a good chance of coming away with a big victory.