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No. 1 Alabama meets No. 14 Auburn Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 11/29/2014  at  5:29:00 AM
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AUBURN TIGERS (8-3)
at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (10-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -9.5, Total: 53.5

No. 1 Alabama looks to continue its dominance with a seventh straight win when it hosts No. 14 Auburn in the annual Iron Bowl on Saturday evening.

The Tigers have fallen prey to being part of the toughest divisions in football and after starting the season 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS) have gone 3-3 SU over their past six contests while covering just once. They lost by an average of 15.0 PPG against Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Georgia. They were able to get back on track last week against a lowly Samford program, as they won 31-7 as 37.5-point favorites. They totaled 386 yards in the game while forcing two turnovers and converting 7-of-14 conversions on third down. The Crimson Tide are once again one of the top teams in the nation and have a nearly flawless SU record this season with their one blemish being a loss to Ole Miss by a score of 23-17 as 4-point favorites on the road. Since then, Alabama has won six consecutive games SU, but has continued to do poorly for bettors at 3-7-1 ATS on the season. Last week the school got an easy draw against Western Carolina and failed to cover the huge 51.5-point spread in a 48-14 win. The Crimson Tide put up 612 yards on the FCS opponent and held the Catamounts to minus-8 yards rushing, but did lose the turnover battle 2-0. These two teams have split their past four matchups (SU and ATS), as Auburn was able to pull out a 34-28 win as a 10-point underdogs at home in 2013. The Tigers battled back from a 21-14 halftime deficit and ended the game with one of the best finishes in history, as they returned a missed field goal 109 yards with no time left on the clock to earn the win. Some trends to keep an eye on in this one include that Auburn is 14-5 ATS (74%) after one or more consecutive SU wins in the past two seasons, while Alabama is an amazing 16-3 ATS (84%) when coming off two no-covers where the team won as a favorite since 1992. Some injuries to key offensive players for both teams need to be watched in this one, as WR D’haquille Williams (leg) is questionable for the Tigers while WR Amari Cooper (knee) and HB T.J. Yeldon (ankle) are probable, with WR DeAndrew White (undisclosed) listed as questionable for the host Crimson Tide.

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Auburn has been a solid offensive team throughout the year and currently ranks ninth in the nation in rushing (266.2 YPG) while getting 210.2 YPG from their passing game and has scored 35.1 PPG (29th in FBS). QB Nick Marshall (1,859 pass yards, 15 TD, 6 INT) has gone over 200 yards passing in five of his games this season while completing 59.6% of his passes for 8.2 YPA. The real threat comes from his legs, which have helped him gain 731 yards (5.5 YPC) and score 11 TD while having double-digit rushing attempts in 9-of-11 games. HB Cameron Artis-Payne (1,405 rush yards, 11 TD) joins Marshall in the talented backfield and has hit triple-digits in rushing yards eight times on the year. He has scored at least one touchdown in each of the past five games, including last week against Samford when he rushed for 129 yards on 24 attempts (5.4 YPC) and added a score. WR D’haquille Williams (609 rec yards, 5 TD) is the leading receiver for this team but is questionable to play. If he is unable to go, expect WRs Sammie Coates (511 rec yards, 2 TD) and Quan Bray (334 rec yards, 3 TD) to pick up the slack. On the defensive side of things, the Tigers have allowed opponents to score 23.5 PPG on them while DBs Jonathan Ford (75 tackles, 2 INT), Jonathan Jones (29 tackles, 5 INT) and LB Cassanova McKinzy (80 tackles, 10 TFL, 1 INT) have all performed well.

Alabama has always had one of the more balanced offensive attacks in the nation and is proving that once again with 279.9 passing YPG (26th in nation) and 204.9 rushing YPG (34th in FBS) while scoring 35.0 PPG (30th in nation). QB Blake Sims (2,676 pass yards, 20 TD, 4 INT) has been efficient while hitting on 62.1% of his passes for 8.9 YPA and has been between 200 and 225 yards in each of his past three games. He has also done a great job of keeping the ball out of the opposition’s hands as he has just one pick over his past six contests. HB T.J. Yeldon (758 rush yards, 6 TD) has been great this year while averaging 5.0 YPC, and is probable heading into this SEC matchup. If he is unable to go, the Crimson Tide can take solace in the fact that both HB Derrick Henry (682 rush yards, 7 TD) and Sims (279 rush yards, 5 TD) have run the football well all season. The team is happy to hear that star WR Amari Copper (1,349 rec yards, 11 TD) is probable to play, as he has at least eight catches in 9-of-11 games while going over 130 yards on six different occasions. Unfortunately WR DeAndrew White (319 rec yards, 2 TD) may not go, and there is not clear-cut No. 2 receiver on the team. While the offense is impressive, the defense is even better, as the unit has allowed a mere 14.5 PPG (2nd in FBS) while holding each of the past six opponents to 23 points or less. LB Reggie Ragland (81 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 1 INT) and DL Xzavier Dickson (33 tackles, 7 sacks) have given their opponents plenty of trouble and will need to do so once again in order to grab a win in this game.


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