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Mississippi State visits Ole Miss in Saturday's Egg Bowl
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 11/29/2014  at  5:40:00 AM
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MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (10-1)
at OLE MISS REBELS (8-3)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Mississippi State -2, Total: 49.5

The Egg Bowl begins Saturday as cross-state rivals, No. 4 Mississippi State and No. 19 Ole Miss, meet for an important SEC matchup on Saturday afternoon.

Mississippi State remains one of the best teams in the nation with the only blemish on its record this season being a close 25-20 loss to Alabama just a couple of weeks ago. Besides that, the Bulldogs have been dominant, defeating their other 10 opponents by an average of 23.2 PPG and going 7-4 ATS on the year. Last week they earned a breather against Vanderbilt as they were 29.5-point favorites and rolled to a 51-0 victory. They totaled 502 yards of offense in the rout, including 283 yards from their rushing attack (5.5 YPC), and forced three turnovers while scoring 37 points in the first half. Ole Miss kicked off the year by blowing away everybody with a perfect 7-0 record (SU and ATS), but has since gone 1-3 SU (0-4 ATS) in the past four contests. Last week was the Rebels' biggest letdown of the season as they were shut out by Arkansas on the road by a score of 30-0 as 3-point favorites. They turned the ball over a whopping six times in the embarrassing loss as they actually outgained their opponent 316 to 311, but failed to get anything done with the rushing game (63 yards). This rivalry has seen the home team come away the victor in each of the past three seasons with Mississippi State getting two wins (both SU and ATS) in that time. The average margin of victory in the games was 17.3 PPG while the Bulldogs pulled out a close one last season, winning 17-10 as 4-point underdogs at home in a defensive battle where the teams combined for a mere 614 yards of offense and six turnovers. Bettors should know that Mississippi State is 12-4 ATS (75%) when playing with six or less days of rest over the past two seasons, while Ole Miss is 20-8 ATS (71%) in games played on turf over the past three seasons. The Bulldogs come into this heated rivalry with no injuries to significant players, while WR Laquon Treadwell (ankle) is out for the season on the Rebels side of the ball.

Can Mississippi State secure the Egg Bowl with a key road win? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Gary is heating up with a 6-1 ATS mark in College Football Best Bets over the past two weeks.

Mississippi State has put together a great offense that can attack from both the passing game (264.9 YPG) or rushing attack (246.8 YPG, 19th in nation) while scoring 39.0 PPG (12th in FBS). QB Dak Prescott (2,714 pass yards, 23 TD, 10 INT) has been efficient with at least 1 TD pass in each game this year while hitting on 61.4% of his throws for 8.8 YPA. He provides a dual-threat in the run game also, as he's rushed for 891 yards (5.2 YPC) and 12 TD while hitting triple-digits on the ground four times. Joining him in the backfield is HB Josh Robinson (1,084 rush yards, 11 TD) who averaged 126.7 YPG over the first seven games of the year, but has since gained a meager 49.3 YPG in the past four. He has also failed to score a touchdown in his past three performances, but has remained a consistent contributor as a receiver and has 26 catches for 361 yards (13.9 avg) and a touchdown on the year. He has been the second-best receiver behind WR De’Runnya Wilson (458 rec yards, 6 TD) who leads the team with 30 receptions, but has yet to eclipse the century mark in a game. The Bulldogs defense has proven to be phenomenal while allowing opponents to score just 18.4 PPG (11th in FBS), as LBs Benardrick McKinney (60 tackles, 3 sacks), Beniquez Brown (55 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and DL Preston Smith (41 tackles, 8 sacks, 2 INT, 1 TD) have all put forth strong efforts.

Ole Miss also has a fairly balanced offense while focusing more on its passing (270.9 YPG) and less on running the ball (164.3 YPG) as the team has scored 30.4 PPG. QB Bo Wallace (2,789 pass yards, 22 TD, 10 INT) was in early season talks for the Heisman, but recent poor play has taken him and his team out of any type of national recognition. He was horrible against the Razorbacks last week, hitting on 16-of-31 passes for 235 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. HB Jaylen Walton (435 rush yards, 4 TD) has not rushed for more than 60 yards since the fourth game of the season while also contributing as a receiver with 181 yards on 16 grabs (11.3 avg) and two touchdowns. HB Jordan Wilkins (316 rush yards, 1 TD) has given the team a nice change-of-pace option, as he is averaging 6.9 YPC and got the bulk of his yards in the win over Presbyterian when he went for 171 yards and a score in just 10 carries. WR Vince Sanders (647 rec yards, 6 TD) leads a solid receiving group that has tremendous depth with WRs Cody Core (480 rec yards, 5 TD) and Evan Engram (475 rec yards, 2 TD) each having more than 30 catches on the year. The reason that the Rebels have been so successful this season is the nation's top-ranked defense, which has given up the fewest points among all FBS teams (13.5 PPG). DB Senquez Wilson (9 INT, 35 tackles, 1 TD) and DL Marquis Haynes (6.5 sacks, 24 tackles) have been a big part of the success that this side of the ball has had this season.


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