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No. 2 Oregon meets No. 7 Arizona for Pac-12 title
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 12/5/2014  at  6:21:00 AM
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ARIZONA WILDCATS (10-2)
vs. OREGON DUCKS (11-1)

Pac-12 Championship Game
Levi's Stadium - Santa Clara, CA
Kickoff: Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Oregon -14.5, Total: 72

No. 2 Oregon looks to get revenge for its one loss on the year when it faces No. 7 Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship game on Friday night.

The Wildcats have looked great all season while losing just two games SU, but is a meager 5-7 ATS on the season. They were able to cover in each of their final two contests though, as they first secured a huge 42-10 win over Utah as 5.5-point underdogs and then earned a trip to this conference championship game with a solid 42-35 victory as 1.5-point favorites at home against in-state rival Arizona State. Arizona was outplayed in nearly every facet of last week's game, as it was outgained 380-333 while each school committed two turnovers. The Ducks had no trouble getting to their second conference championship game in four years, as they went 8-1 SU in conference play (7-2 ATS) and defeated their opponents by an average of 24.3 PPG over their seven-game winning streak to cap off the season. Their final game came on the road as big 21-point favorites against Oregon State and they had no trouble in that contest, jumping out to a 30-3 halftime lead and cruising to a 47-19 win. They dropped 565 yards of offense on their opponent with 367 of those yards coming through the air. Arizona has been a thorn in Oregon’s side over the past two seasons in handing them two of their three SU losses in that timeframe. The Wildcats have won by an average of 16.5 PPG in those meetings and were 31-24 victors as 21.5-point underdogs earlier this season when they met in Eugene. They outgained the Ducks 495 to 466, and allowed just 144 yards (3.5 YPC) on the ground. Bettors should be aware that Arizona is 12-3 ATS (80%) after a home game were both teams score 31 or more points since 1992, while Oregon is 25-5 ATS (83%) after leading its previous two games by 14+ points at the half over this same timeframe. The only significant injury in this game is Arizona RB Terris Jones-Grigsby (ankle), who is listed as questionable. When these schools met in October, Jones-Grisby compiled 210 total yards and a touchdown.

Can Oregon win the Pac-12 title and cover the hefty spread? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and bowl season. StatFox Brian is heating up with a 64% ATS mark (7-4) in College Football Best Bets over the past three weeks, while StatFox Gary is 58% ATS (7-5) in Best Bets in this same timeframe.

Arizona has put forth a solid offensive effort all season long as it is throwing for 291.4 YPG (18th in nation) and running for 189.8 YPG (44th in FBS) while scoring 36.7 PPG (20th in nation). Freshman QB Anu Solomon (3,424 pass yards, 27 TD, 7 INT) has been out of this world, as he is averaging 39.9 pass attempts per game and has thrown for over 390 yards in three contests. He has been relied on much less in the past three games though, while throwing just two touchdowns and averaging 202.7 YPG passing. He’s had some big performances running the ball as well, and has 282 rushing yards (2.6 YPC) and a touchdown on the ground this year. Solomon threw for 287 yards (9.3 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT in the upset over the Ducks earlier this year. The real star in the rushing attack is HB Nick Wilson (1,263 rush yards, 15 TD) who has seven performances of 100+ yards this year and rushed for 92 yards and scored 3 total TD in the win at Oregon on Oct. 2. He has scored 8 TD in the past three games and is averaging 163.3 YPG over his past four contests. WR Cayleb Jones (831 rec yards, 8 TD) has been the benefactor of Solomon’s big year, but has put up a mere 32.2 receiving YPG over the past five games. The Wildcats like to spread the ball out, and have six other receivers with 20 or more catches while 10 different players have a touchdown. The defense has been decent in allowing 25.5 PPG (57th in nation), but also surrenders 434.7 total yards per game. Superstar LB Scooby Wright III (140 tackles, 14 sacks) continues to anchor this unit.

As usual, the Ducks have one of the best offenses in the nation while putting up the nation's fourth-most points (45.9 PPG) as they pass for 307.5 YPG (11th in FBS) and run for 232.0 YPG (24th in nation). QB Marcus Mariota (3,470 yards, 36 TD, 2 INT) is the leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy as he is completing 68.2% of his passes for 10.4 YPA and has averaged 289.1 YPG. His two picks came in back-to-back games against Cal and Stanford and since then, he has thrown 10 TD in three games, including a big performance in the win over Oregon State when he tallied 406 total yards and 6 TD (4 passing, 2 rushing). Of course one of his biggest assets is his ability to run the ball, and he has totaled 636 rushing yards (5.9 YPC) and 11 TD on the year. Although he threw the ball well versus Arizona on Oct. 2 with 276 yards (8.6 YPA) and 2 TD and even caught a 26-yard touchdown pass, the Wildcats held Mariota to one yard on nine carries. HB Royce Freeman (1,185 rush yards, 16 TD) has been huge as a freshman, and has been especially big recently with all five of his 100-yard rushing performances coming in the past seven games where he is averaging 119.8 YPG. WR Byron Marshall (791 rec yards, 5 TD) has been the top option through the air, while the trio of WR Devon Allen (638 rec yards, 6 TD), WR Dwayne Stanford (557 rec yards, 6 TDs) and TE Pharaoh Brown (420 rec yards, 6 TDs) has also been effective. The defense for this team has also been solid on the year and is giving up 23.3 PPG (32nd in nation), but also 429.6 total yards per game, to its opponents. DB Erick Dargan (81 tackles, 5 INT) has been a difference maker for this team in his final collegiate season.


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