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Packers favored big over Falcons Monday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 12/8/2014  at  5:56:00 AM
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ATLANTA FALCONS (5-7)
at GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-3)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Green Bay -12.5, Total: 55.5

The 5-7 Falcons look to keep their place atop the NFC South Division when they visit the NFC North-leading Packers on Monday night.

Atlanta picked up a big 29-18 home victory over the Cardinals last week for its third win in four games (2-2 ATS), but now faces a Packers team that is 8-1 SU (7-2 ATS) in its past nine games, including a 26-21 victory over the Patriots last week. Last season, the Falcons nearly escaped Lambeau Field with a victory but fell short 22-21 as 3.5-point road underdogs. Green Bay star QB Aaron Rodgers did not play in that game, as he was out with a broken collarbone. The Packers are 4-3 SU against the Falcons in Green Bay since 1992, but the Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in those contests. Over the past two seasons, the Falcons are 8-0 ATS after allowing 6+ yards per play in two consecutive games. They are, however, just 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog since 1992, and they’re up against a Packers team that is 7-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season. WR Roddy White (ankle) is listed as questionable for the Falcons, who will need all the playmaking they can get to keep up with Green Bay.

Can the Packers win and cover the huge spread on Monday night? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained profitable since Week 3, combining for a 53.2% ATS mark (91-80). StatFox Dave is 56% ATS (27-21) in Best Bets during these 11 weeks to improve to 54.4% ATS (31-26) on the season. StatFox Gary is 69% ATS (9-4) in his past four weeks of NFL Best Bets, while StatFox Scott is 55% ATS (26-21) in Best Bets since Week 3. StatFox Brian continues to profit in NFL Totals with a 55% record (21-17) for the season.

The Falcons are coming off of a 29-18 win over the Cardinals and they have now won three of their past four games to put themselves in a tie for the division lead with New Orleans. QB Matt Ryan (3,427 pass yards, 21 TD, 10 INT) was excellent in the win over Arizona, throwing for 361 yards with 2 TD and just 1 INT. Ryan has now thrown for nine touchdowns and just three interceptions over his past six games. He is taking care of the football, and will need to perform at a high level if the Falcons are going to pick up a gigantic win in Lambeau Field. WR Julio Jones (82 rec, 1,169 yards, 5 TD) had 10 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown last week against Arizona, which mainly covered him with Patrick Peterson. Jones' confidence is higher than ever after dominating one of the best shutdown corners in football and he should be able to find success against Green Bay. RB Steven Jackson (602 rush yards, 5 TD) will also play a major role in this game for the Falcons. He is coming off of a 101-yard performance against the Cardinals’ sixth-ranked rushing defense and now faces a Packers team that is allowing 132.3 rushing yards per game (28th in NFL).

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (3,325 yards, 32 TD, 3 INT) is playing the best football of his career this season and he is the main reason the Packers have as many wins as any NFL team. Over the past four weeks, Rodgers has thrown for 13 touchdowns without throwing a single interception. He’ll now have an opportunity to face the league’s worst-ranked passing defense and he should be able to put up some huge numbers in this game. Both WRs Jordy Nelson (70 rec, 1,119 yards, 10 TD) and Randall Cobb (65 rec, 922 yards, 10 TD) will likely see plenty of open field against this porous secondary, and it’s likely that both of them will have at least one opportunity to find the back of the end zone in this game. RB Eddie Lacy (770 rush yards, 6 TD) has been a monster for Green Bay over the past five weeks, gaining at least 110 total yards in all five contests, rushing for 4.8 YPC and scoring five touchdowns. His ability to wear down defenses has made Rodgers’ job much easier as a quarterback. Since the Week 9 bye, the Packers defense has really turned a corner. They are allowing just 19.0 PPG in the past four weeks and if that number can stay around the same going forward, this offense won’t let this team lose too many games.


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