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Chiefs, Cardinals look to end losing skids Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 12/6/2014  at  2:19:00 AM
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (7-5)
at ARIZONA CARDINALS (9-3)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Line: Arizona -1, Total: 40

Two teams looking to end their two-game losing streaks clash on Sunday when the Cardinals host the Chiefs.

Kansas City lost to the Broncos 29-16 as a 1-point home underdog last week and Arizona was no better, losing 29-18 as a 1-point favorite in Atlanta. Both teams have lost and failed to cover in each of the past two games. This matchup has all the makings of a slugfest, as these teams feature excellent defenses and average offenses at best. Both of these teams are allowing just 18.7 PPG to their opponents, which is good for a tie as the fourth-best scoring defenses in the league. Kansas City is 7-0 ATS off one or more consecutive Unders this season and 26-10 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 or more points since 1992. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 9-1 ATS off one or more straight Overs in the past two seasons and 22-9 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards in their previous game since 1992. Since RB Andre Ellington (hip) will not play in this game, the Cardinals’ offensive options will be severely limited.

Which defense will lead its team to victory on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained profitable since Week 3, combining for a 53.2% ATS mark (91-80). StatFox Dave is 56% ATS (27-21) in Best Bets during these 11 weeks to improve to 54.4% ATS (31-26) on the season. StatFox Gary is 69% ATS (9-4) in his past four weeks of NFL Best Bets, while StatFox Scott is 55% ATS (26-21) in Best Bets since Week 3. StatFox Brian continues to profit in NFL Totals with a 55% record (21-17) for the season.

The Chiefs hosted the Broncos in a huge division matchup last week, but they were unable to stop the high-powered Denver offense. Kansas City allowed RB C.J. Anderson to run all over them in that game, giving up 168 rushing yards to the Broncos’ new playmaker out of the backfield. The Chiefs have the league’s best passing defense though, so it will be really tough for the Cardinals to score points in this one. They’ll need to be better defending the run going forward, but they could get some help from the Cardinals with Andre Ellington (660 yards, 3 TD) sitting out. K.C. will also be up against Drew Stanton, who isn’t capable of beating them through the air. RB Jamaal Charles (807 rush yards, 8 TD) was ineffective against the Broncos due to the Chiefs falling behind early. He rushed just 10 times for 35 yards and will need to be more involved against the Cardinals. QB Alex Smith (2,364 pass yards, 15 TD, 5 INT) is a good game manager, but he is not capable of winning the Chiefs games, so this team will need to feed Charles the ball early and often.

Arizona's offense did not show up to play against the Falcons last week and could be in for an even tougher outing on Sunday against a dominant Chiefs defense. The Cardinals’ lone offensive touchdown came on a garbage-time pass from WR Drew Stanton (1,363 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT) to RB Stepfan Taylor (83 rush yards, 1 TD), who will start in place of Ellington in this game. Stanton threw for 294 yards in the game with one touchdown and two interceptions. He was wildly inaccurate, completing just 24-of-39 pass attempts and he’ll need to make way more high percentage passes against the top passing defense in the league. Teams will not be stacking eight men in the box with Ellington not playing, so he could struggle even more going forward. RB Marion Grice (29 yards, 1 TD) will also be a factor for the Cardinals, as he will likely split carries with Taylor. Grice caught three passes for 24 yards against the Falcons, but he lacks the explosiveness that Ellington brings to this offense. Arizona still has one of the better rush defenses in the league, allowing just 89.3 rushing yards per game (6th in NFL). The Cardinals will need to be ready to stop Jamaal Charles on Sunday, or this one could get out of hand rather quickly.


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