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Mavericks look for 17th win Wednesday hosting Pelicans
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 12/10/2014  at  12:23:00 PM
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NEW ORLEANS PELICANS (10-10)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (16-7)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -7, Total: 210

The Mavericks look to continue a solid start to their season when they host the Pelicans, who are attempting to go over the .500 mark, on Wednesday night.

New Orleans has a few studs on its team, but does not have the depth to compete every night, and is 3-5 SU (4-4 ATS) over its past eight games played. In four of the past five games the club has been able to garner some solid offense with 100+ points, and torched the Knicks for 104 points in a 11-point victory as a 6.5-point favorite at home on Tuesday night. The Pelicans had no issues getting past the struggling Knickerbockers as they shot 50% from the field and out-rebounded their opponent 43-30 in the victory. The Mavericks have looked great this season with a stellar offense that has led them to wins in six of their past eight games while averaging 112.5 PPG in that timeframe. Unfortunately in this same timeframe, they have also let their opponents score at least 100 points in each contest. Dallas could not stop the Grizzlies on the road on Tuesday night, as it was a 3-point underdog and left Memphis with a 114-105 loss, as it forced just five turnovers and allowed the Grizzlies to shoot 45% (18-for-40) from behind the arc. Overall the Pelicans have not done well when playing on the road with a 4-8 SU record (5-7 ATS) while the Mavs have gone a solid 8-3 SU (5-5-1 ATS) when playing at home. These clubs already met once this season on Nov. 1 with Dallas getting a 109-104 win as 1-point underdog on the road behind 51.7% shooting. In the past three seasons in this series, the Mavericks are a dominant 8-1 SU (7-2 ATS) and have won the past eight meetings by an average of 10.1 PPG. Some trends to keep an eye on for Wednesday include that New Orleans is 64-40 ATS (62%) after two straight games forcing opponents to commit 11 or less turnovers since 1996 while being 10-21 ATS (32%) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the past two seasons. On the injury front, SG Eric Gordon (shoulder) continues to miss time for the Pelicans, while SG Monta Ellis (arm) is considered probable for the Mavericks.

Can the Pelicans keep the score close on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. While StatFox Forecaster has a stellar 62% ATS record (61-38) in featured games this season, the five experts have also caught fire with a collective 70% ATS mark (30-13) in NBA Best Bets since Nov. 29. StatFox Gary is 7-1 ATS during this timeframe to give him a 61% ATS record (19-12) in NBA Best Bets this season, while StatFox Brian is 8-1 ATS since Nov. 29 to improve to 58% ATS (18-13) in NBA Best Bets this season. Also during this surge, StatFox Scott and StatFox Dave are both 6-3 ATS.

Just like their record, the Pelicans offense sits in the middle of the league while scoring 100.6 PPG behind 45.4% shooting from the floor. Their defense is no different, as they are allowing opponents to score 99.9 PPG and shoot 46.2% FG (8th-worst in league). PF Anthony Davis (24.8 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 2.9 BPG, 2.1 SPG) started out the season with some otherworldly games, but has averaged a mere 5.7 RPG over his past three contests. Over six career games against the Mavericks, Davis has gone for 16.7 PPG, 10.5 RPG and 1.7 BPG, including 31 points and 15 rebounds against them on Nov. 1. SF Tyreke Evans (15.8 PPG, 5.9 SPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG) has been a stud as the full-time starter, including coming off a huge performance in the win over the Knicks on Tuesday (27 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals). In his career against Dallas (16 games, 12 starts), Evans has tallied 16.9 PPG (48% FG) to go with 5.6 RPG, 5.3 APG and 1.3 SPG. PG Jrue Holiday (15.1 PPG, 6.6 APG, 1.2 SPG) has been solid this year filled the stat sheet versus the Knicks (13 points, 7 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 steals) while also performing well against the Mavericks earlier this season (24 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 3 steals).

Dallas has been the best scoring offense in the league this season with 110.4 PPG on 48.0% FG (3rd in NBA). The team has had to score a ton of points though, as its defense is allowing 103.0 PPG (7th-worst in NBA) behind 45.8% shooting. SG Monta Ellis (20.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.4 SPG) has taken over as the top offensive weapon for this team, but was absolutely horrible against Memphis, shooting 1-for-11 FG with two points over 25 minutes. He’s been great against the Pelicans over his 23 career games (20 starts) while averaging 19.8 PPG (48% FG), 5.2 APG and 1.7 SPG. PF Dirk Nowitzki (18.8 RPG, 5.6 RPG) has scored fewer than 12 points in two of his past three games while hitting just 1-of-10 threes in that time. He did wonderful over his four games against New Orleans last season while going for 25.8 PPG (49% FG) and 5.0 RPG. SF Chandler Parsons (16.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG) has been huge in the past two contests wit 29.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG while hitting 10-of-16 shots from long range. In his nine career games against the Pelicans, Parsons has netted 11.4 PPG (39% FG) and 6.6 RPG while making just 31% of his shots from three-point range.


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