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Navy seeks 13th straight series win vs. Army
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 12/13/2014  at  5:07:00 AM
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ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS (4-7)
vs. NAVY MIDSHIPMEN (6-5)

M&T Bank Stadium - Baltimore, MD
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Line: Navy -15, Total: 56.5

In one of the longest running rivalries in sports, Army and Navy will meet for the 115th time on Saturday afternoon.

The Midshipmen had a rough start to the year with a record of 2-4 (both SU and ATS) over their first six games, but have turned it around since that time with a 4-1 SU record (3-2 ATS) leading up to this contest. Over those five games, they have defeated their opponents by an average of 20.5 PPG and suffered their one loss against Notre Dame by a score of 49-39 as 14-point underdogs. Their most recent contest came against South Alabama on the road as 7.5-point favorites on Nov. 28 and they narrowly avoided an upset after outscoring the Jaguars 42-40. Navy tallied 430 yards of offense in the victory while getting 388 yards (7.2 YPC) from its triple-option offense, but also turned the ball over three times. The Black Knights have had a forgettable 2014 campaign while going 4-7 (both SU and ATS) while winning two of their past three games. They were able to beat both 5-point favorite Connecticut by a score of 35-21, and 3.5-point favorite Fordham on Nov. 22 with a 42-31 victory. Army was actually outgained 471-430 against the Rams, as the team totaled 382 yards on the ground and had no turnovers for the second straight game. The Knights have been great at protecting the football with a mere six turnovers in the past eight games played. This rivalry has been dominated by Navy, which is 15-7 (both SU and ATS) since 1992, while winning in each of the past 12 meetings by an average of 22.3 PPG. Last year the Midshipmen rolled to a big 34-7 win as 13.5-point favorites as they had 343 rushing yards (6.0 YPC) and held Army to a mere 207 total offensive yards. Some interesting trends to keep an eye on in this one include that the Black Knights are 1-12 ATS (8%) after outrushing an opponent by 150 or more yards in the past three seasons, but they are 3-1 ATS as a neutral-field underdog in the same timeframe. There are no significant injuries to watch going into this game.

Just like its counterpart in this one, Army has a strong rushing offense and has averaged 305.5 YPG on the ground (6th in FBS) while being the worst team in the nation in passing (64.5 YPG), but have scored a respectable 26.3 PPG. QB Angel Santiago (488 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) has had double-digit passing attempts in just three games this year and has eclipsed 100 passing yards only once. He is expected to control the offense with his legs and has 793 rushing yards (4.4 YPC) with 10 TDs this year while reaching 100 yards twice. HB Larry Dixon (1,012 rush yards, 9 TD) has been the top option in this offense and has gained more than 110 rushing yards four times this season. He has improved his performance over the past two games while averaging 136.5 YPG with a total of four touchdowns. There is really no big threat in the receiving game, as WR Edgar Poe (199 yards, 1 TD) leads the team with 10 catches. The Black Knights defense has been one of the worst in college football while allowing opponents to put up 34.4 PPG against them, and could be in trouble against the Navy triple-option as they give up 191.9 rushing YPG. LB Jeremy Timpf (102 tackles, 3 INT, 14 TFL) has done his best to help this unit improve but will need some serious help to contend in this one.

The Midshipmen have always been known for their devotion to the triple-option and that has helped them to the second-best rushing offense in the nation (357.8 YPG) while they put up just 87.6 YPG through the air (2nd-worst in FBS), all leading to 34.5 PPG (33rd in nation). QB Keenan Reynolds (749 pass yards, 5 TD, 3 INT) is expected to do little in the passing game, as he has just 10.7 attempts per game while surpassing 100 yards only three times in his nine games. While he is not much of a passer, he leads the team in rushing with 1,082 yards (5.3 YPC) and 20 TD while gaining more than 250 yards on the ground in two of the past four contests. Besides Reynolds, both HBs Noah Copeland (859 rush yards, 5 TDs) and Chris Swain (574 rush yards, 4 TDs) have led the way running the ball. Copeland has gone into triple-digit rushing yards five times this year, and is coming off a solid performance in last week’s win over South Alabama with 112 rushing yards and 2 TD. WR Jamir Tillman (338 rec yards, 2 TD) is the only player on the team with double-digit receptions (18) while having just one game with more than 70 receiving yards. The defense for this program has been poor while allowing 29.9 PPG to their opponents, and ranks 86th in the nation while giving up 426.2 YPG of total offense. LBs Jordan Drake (85 tackles) and Daniel Gonzales (73 tackles, 2 INT) lead the team on this side of the ball, and will be leaned greatly on to keep the Army rushing attack in check.


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