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Rockets try to stay hot Wednesday at Nuggets
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 12/17/2014  at  5:41:00 AM
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HOUSTON ROCKETS (18-5)

at DENVER NUGGETS (10-14)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Houston -1.5, Total: 206

Two teams heading in opposite directions meet for the second time in a week on Wednesday when the Rockets visit the Nuggets.

Houston has been riddled with injuries all season long, but has been able to keep things together and win nine of its past 11 games SU (7-4 ATS), and now some of its top players are returning to the lineup. The Rockets have actually not been shooting well in that time, going under 45% from the field in nine games, but are able to force a ton of turnovers and hold their opposition to an even worse offensive efficiency. They faced this Denver team on Saturday at home in their most recent game, and came away with a 108-96 victory as 7-point favorites, while holding the Nuggets to a meager 37.5% FG. Denver has had its own issues with rotation and consistency while coming into Wednesday with SU losses in six of its past seven contests (3-4 ATS). Of the six defeats, four came on the road as the Nuggets lost by an average of 11.5 PPG and shot worse than 38% FG three times. They have had a game since their last meeting with Houston on Saturday, and it was not pretty, as San Antonio won 99-91 as a 5-point favorite while Denver made only 34-of-83 shots (41% FG) and turned the ball over 21 times. The road has been a comfortable spot for the Rockets this season, as they are 9-2 SU (6-4-1 ATS) in away games and will be going against a Nuggets team that is 6-5 SU (6-4-1 ATS) in the Mile High City. As mentioned previously, Denver lost its last game against Houston with a dismal shooting display, and the home team in this series has now won each of the past six games (SU and ATS) with an average margin of victory of 10.2 PPG. In that time, the two teams have split the contests (3-3) with the games typically being very high scoring as the average total is 234.2. Trends show that the Rockets are a solid 26-19 ATS (58%) after covering three of their past four games ATS in the past three seasons while also being a poor 4-14 ATS (22%) after a game with 65+ rebounds over the same timeframe. Houston is finally starting to get its team back together and after playing solid in the last game C Dwight Howard (knee) is listed as questionable along with SF Kostas Papanikolaou (knee) and PG Isaiah Canaan (ankle), while SGs Jason Terry (personal) and Francisco Garcia (calf) are both expected to miss this contest. For Denver, PF Kenneth Faried (ankle) is probable to play while SF Danilo Gallinari (knee) is listed as questionable.

Can the Rockets stay hot with a tough road win in Denver? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. While StatFox Forecaster has a stellar 61% ATS record (68-43-1) in featured games this season, the five experts have also caught fire with a collective 70% ATS mark (42-18-2) in NBA Best Bets since Nov. 29. StatFox Brian is 12-1 ATS during this timeframe to give him a 63% ATS record (22-13) in NBA Best Bets this season, while StatFox Gary is 10-2 ATS since Nov. 29 to improve to 63% ATS (22-13) in NBA Best Bets this season. Also during this surge, StatFox Dave is 9-3-1 ATS and StatFox Scott is 7-5 ATS.

Houston has been winning despite an offense scoring a mere 99.6 PPG (13th-worst in league) on a meager 42.7% shooting (4th-worst in NBA). But the club has done much better (107.1 PPG) over its past seven contests. What has really been impressive is an improvement on defense, as the Rockets have allowed the league's second-fewest points (95.3) behind just 42.8% shooting (3rd in NBA). SG James Harden (26.3 PPG, 6.7 APG, 6.4 RPG, 2.0 SPG, 1.1 BPG) leads the league in scoring, and has single-handedly carried this team on his back in recent games while recording a triple-double (24 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) and adding two blocks with a steal against Denver on Saturday. Last season he actually struggled shooting in this series over three starts, netting 19.7 PPG on 31% FG with 8.3 APG, 4.3 RPG and 2.0 SPG. C Dwight Howard (19.5 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 2.4 BPG) made his return to the court on Saturday after an 11-game absence and was great with a double-double (26 points, 13 rebounds) while adding three blocks and a steal. He has never had any trouble facing the Nuggets, going for 18.0 PPG (60% FG), 14.0 RPG and 2.2 BPG over 20 career starts. SF Trevor Ariza (14.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG) is averaging 16.3 PPG over six December games, but is shooting a very poor 33% FG (32% threes) while attempting 9.8 threes per game. He has now faced Denver 25 times (13 starts) in his career and averaged 9.3 PPG (41% FG) to go along with 4.4 RPG and 1.1 SPG.

Denver has been solid on the offensive side of things this season with 102.6 PPG (9th in league) despite a poor 43.4% FG clip (7th-worst in NBA). The struggles to win games stem from poor defensive play though, as the Nuggets are giving up 104.6 PPG (4th-worst in league) behind 45% shooting while holding three of the past five opponents under 100 points. PG Ty Lawson (15.6 PPG, 10.3 APG, 1.5 SPG) has been one of the more consistent players on this club, but is also struggling with his shot, as he's averaging 12.2 PPG on 33% FG in his past five games. He did do well in the loss to Houston on Saturday (19 points, 12 assists) and has averaged 15.9 PPG (46% FG), 6.3 APG and 1.2 SPG over 15 career games (9 starts) against them. SF Wilson Chandler (14.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG) has been a solid contributor this season and was fending off illness when he went for nine points on 4-of-13 shooting and nine rebounds against this team on Saturday. Overall in his 11 career meetings (5 starts), he has 12.9 PPG (44% FG) and 5.8 RPG over 29.5 MPG. C Timofey Mozgov (9.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG) has three double-doubles in his past five games but was ineffective against Dwight Howard on Saturday as he threw up a goose-egg in the points column while adding four rebounds and committing five fouls in just 14 minutes on the court. He should do better in this one, as he went for 15.3 PPG (64% FG), 7.7 RPG and 1.3 BPG over three games (2 starts) against Houston last season.


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