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Raptors favored big over Nets on Wednesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 12/17/2014  at  6:58:00 AM
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BROOKLYN NETS (10-13)

at TORONTO RAPTORS (19-6)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Toronto -11, Total: 197.5

The Raptors look to win their fourth straight game when they host the Nets on Wednesday night.

Brooklyn is coming off of a 95-91 loss as a 6-point home favorite against Miami on Tuesday night. The Nets had won-and-covered in their previous two games before playing the Heat. Toronto, meanwhile, won its third straight game in a 95-82 rout at home against the 6.5-point underdog Magic. The Raptors have now won six of their past eight games (5-3 ATS) to claim the top spot in the Eastern Conference standings. Last season, these teams met in the postseason and the Nets won that series in seven games. Brooklyn went 4-2-1 ATS in that series and capped it off with a 104-103 Game 7 victory in Toronto as 3-point underdog. The Nets are 33-18 ATS in road games after an ATS loss, and are also 107-78 ATS in road games versus division opponents since 1996. The Raptors, meanwhile, are 37-21 ATS after having won three of their past four games since the start of the 2012-13 season. They’re also up against a Brooklyn team that is 8-20 ATS after a loss by six points or less over the past three seasons. Nets C Brook Lopez (back) is doubtful for this game, while the Raptors are still without SG DeMar DeRozan (groin).

Can the surging Raptors cover the monster spread on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. While StatFox Forecaster has a stellar 61% ATS record (68-43-1) in featured games this season, the five experts have also caught fire with a collective 70% ATS mark (42-18-2) in NBA Best Bets since Nov. 29. StatFox Brian is 12-1 ATS during this timeframe to give him a 63% ATS record (22-13) in NBA Best Bets this season, while StatFox Gary is 10-2 ATS since Nov. 29 to improve to 63% ATS (22-13) in NBA Best Bets this season. Also during this surge, StatFox Dave is 9-3-1 ATS and StatFox Scott is 7-5 ATS.

The Nets had won-and-covered in two straight games before losing to Miami at home on Tuesday night. The team just did not have an answer for Dwyane Wade in the contest, allowing him to score 28 points in 36 minutes. C Brook Lopez (16.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.7 BPG) missed his fifth straight game with an injured back and is not likely to return against the Raptors. One great sign for the Nets is that C Mason Plumlee (6.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG) played extremely well against Miami, finishing with 21 points and nine rebounds in 32 minutes of action. He’ll need to hold his own against Jonas Valanciunas if the Nets are going to keep this game close on the road. PG Deron Williams (16.4 PPG, 6.9 APG) will also have a crucial matchup in this contest going up against Kyle Lowry, and that means Williams will be using a lot of his energy on the defensive end. Lowry is much quicker than Williams, so he’ll need to find a way to stay in front of the Toronto point guard throughout the game. With Williams being extremely occupied with his defensive assignment, SG Joe Johnson (15.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG) will need to be on his game. He’s averaging 19.0 PPG over the past two games and will have to be even better for the Nets to win in Toronto.

The Raptors have won three straight games, and PG Kyle Lowry (19.6 PPG, 7.6 APG, 4.7 RPG, 1.4 SPG) is the main reason this team is able to stay afloat without SG DeMar DeRozan (19.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG), who is out indefinitely after tearing his groin. Lowry had 17 points, eight assists and five rebounds versus the Magic on Monday and is now averaging 15.2 PPG, 10.6 APG and 1.8 SPG over the past five contests. He will really need to use his speed to throw off a Nets team that really doesn’t have many players that can keep up with him. C Jonas Valanciunas (11.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.2 BPG) could be the X-factor for the Raptors in this game. The big man has scored just eight and six points, respectively, over the past two games, but he will now face a Nets team that is without Brook Lopez. Toronto could go to him often with Mason Plumlee starting for Brooklyn. One player who will need to step his game up for Toronto is SG Terrence Ross (12.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG), who has scored in double digits in just one of the past three games. He is the player that Toronto expected to carry the scoring load once DeRozan went down. Ross has shown flashes of being that scorer, but he has to be more consistent going forward.


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