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Broncos try for 5th straight win Monday at Bengals
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 12/22/2014  at  5:21:00 AM
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DENVER BRONCOS (11-3)
at CINCINNATI BENGALS (9-4-1)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -3, Total: 47.5

The Broncos go for their fifth straight victory when they visit the surging Bengals on Monday night.

Last Sunday, Denver went into San Diego and won 22-10 for its fourth straight SU victory. Meanwhile, Cincinnati also scored a road win by blowing out Cleveland 30-0 to pick up its fourth SU victory in the past five games. The last meeting between these two teams was on Nov. 4, 2012, when the Broncos won 31-23 as 5-point favorites on the road. They have won-and-covered in three of their past four trips to Cincy dating back to 2003. This matchup will feature a Bengals offense that has the sixth-ranked rushing attack in football going against a Denver team that is second in the league in rushing defense. The Broncos are 8-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the past three seasons, and are also 10-2 ATS in December games in this same timeframe. However, Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS off a division game over the past two years and 24-10 ATS after leading in its previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992. RB Ronnie Hillman (ankle), RB Juwan Thompson (hip), TE Jacob Tamme (ribs), CB Kayvon Webster (shoulder) and OT Ryan Clady (leg) are among several Broncos questionable for this game, while LB Danny Trevathan (knee) and RB Montee Ball (groin) were both recently placed on season-ending IR. For the Bengals, LB Vontaze Burfict (knee) landed on IR last week, and four others are listed as questionable for Monday night -- TE Jermaine Gresham (toe), WR James Wright (knee), CB Terence Newman (ankle) and DE Margus Hunt (ankle).

Which division leader will pick up the big win on Monday night? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. StatFox Dave is 55% ATS (31-25-1) in Best Bets during the past 14 weeks, while StatFox Scott is also 55% ATS (29-24-1) in Best Bets since Week 3. StatFox Gary is 65% ATS (15-8-1) in his past seven weeks of NFL Best Bets, while StatFox Brian is on a 6-3 ATS run in the past three weeks.

The Broncos have won four straight games and they have done so behind the excellent running of RB C.J. Anderson (679 rush yards, 4 TD). Anderson has been a workhorse for the Broncos recently, carrying the football at least 21 times in each of the past four games. He has four rushing touchdowns in that span and another score through the air. If this team is going to win though, it will need QB Peyton Manning (4,143 pass yards, 37 TD, 11 INT) to snap out of his recent funk. Manning has thrown for just one touchdown with two picks over the past two games, and he’s failed to reach 200 yards in two of the past three games as well. Manning's main receiver is WR Demaryius Thomas (96 rec, 1,389 yards, 11 TD), who had six catches for 123 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Chargers last week. He now has five touchdowns over the past four games, and is going to be extremely difficult for the Bengals to stop on Monday. With the offense struggling, the Denver defense has picked up the slack in allowing 17 or less points in each of the past three weeks. If this unit continues to hold opponents below 100 rushing yards like it has done in 10 of the past 11 games, it will be really tough for teams to beat the Broncos in the postseason.

Cincinnati is on a roll recently with wins in four of its past five games, and one of the main reasons for that has been RB Jeremy Hill (877 rush yards, 8 TD). Last week against the Browns, Hill rushed for 148 of his team's season-high 244 rushing yards with two touchdowns. Cincinnati is moving away from RB Giovani Bernard (636 rush yards, 5 TD) and giving Hill a boatload of the carries in this offense. He could struggle to find holes against this elite Broncos rushing defense, though. QB Andy Dalton (3,008 pass yards, 15 TD, 14 INT) is going to need to play a good game for this team to have any chance of beating the Broncos. Dalton threw for just 117 yards with no touchdowns and one interception against the Browns, but he will not be able to do the same against Denver and still pick up a victory. He must limit his turnovers and make plays when his team needs him most. WR A.J. Green (61 rec, 959 yards, 6 TD) is about as good of a target as a quarterback could ask for. Green had just five catches for 49 yards against Cleveland, but he caught 11 passes for 224 yards and a touchdown the week before against Pittsburgh. Dalton would be wise to look Green's way often in this game.


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