Camellia Bowl
Crampton Bowl - Montgomery, AL
Kickoff: Saturday, 9:15 p.m. ET
Line: South Alabama -2.5, Total: 53.5

South Alabama attempts to get a win in its first-ever bowl game when it takes on Bowling Green in the Camellia Bowl on Saturday night.

The Jaguars just broke in as a FBS team in 2012 and will be making their first bowl game appearance after winning half of their games SU (4-8 ATS) in the regular season. They were not able to finish off the season with much success though, as they dropped four of their final five games, while allowing 39.5 PPG over their final two contests. Bettors certainly did not do well if they were taking South Alabama over the final seven games of the year as they went 1-6 ATS while turning the ball over 16 times in the past five contests. The Falcons earned a spot in their fifth bowl game in eight years despite losing their final three games by an average of 19.3 PPG. Their defense has been shredded for 46.0 PPG in the past two games against both Ball State and then Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game. Since earned its last bowl win back in 2004, Bowling Green is 0-4 (SU and ATS) in the past four chances, falling by an average of 17.3 PPG. Trends show that South Alabama is 3-7 ATS on turf this season, but the Falcons are just 2-4-1 ATS away from home this season. However, they are also 11-2 ATS (85%) after three or more consecutive ATS losses since 1992. The only real significant omissions for either team in this game are QB Matt Johnson (hip) and DL Zach Colvin (illness) who are both out for the season for Bowling Green.

Can South Alabama win its first-ever bowl game on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 75% ATS mark (6-2) in College Football Best Bets in the past three weeks, while StatFox Brian is 60% ATS (9-6) in Best Bets over the past four weeks.

South Alabama’s offense went through its rushing attack that averaged 182.6 YPG (48th in FBS) while the team passed for a mere 190.2 YPG (100th in nation) and scored a meager 22.1 PPG (107th in FBS). QB Brandon Bridge (1,648 pass yards, 14 TD, 6 INT) has some big talent and threw just two picks over his past six games combined, but averaged only 156.5 passing YPG in that time. He does have the ability to run the ball as well, as evidenced by his game against Georgia State in which he rumbled for 137 yards (9.1 YPC) and a touchdown on the ground. HB Kendall Houston (652 rush yards, 1 TD) averaged 4.9 YPC while going over the 100-yard mark just once on the season. Four other runners on the team had at least 60 carries with 250+ yards and a score while they combined to gain 4.4 YPC. WR Shavarez Smith (714 rec yards, 8 TD) has been the best red-zone option for this team while gaining 14.3 yards per catch, and has gone over 100 yards twice. Before the defensive breakdown over the final month of the season, this unit was fairly impressive while allowing just 20.8 PPG over its first eight contests before letting opponents scored 36.0 PPG in the last four. The Jaguars have allowed 390.5 YPG of total offense behind the efforts of DB Terrell Brigham (101 tackles, 4 TFL) and DL Theo Rich (8 sacks, 41 tackles).

Bowling Green had a nice balanced offense during the regular season with 251.5 passing YPG (45th in nation) and 176.2 rushing YPG (55th in FBS) as they score 29.8 PPG (63rd in nation). QB James Knapke (2,805 pass yards, 13 TD, 12 INT) was one of the main reasons this team collapsed over the final three games, as he threw just one touchdown with two interceptions while averaging 120.7 passing YPG. Before that, he did have four games of more than 300 passing yards while connecting on 57.4% of his throws for 6.3 YPA on the year. HB Travis Greene (908 rush yards, 10 TD) has been solid while gaining 5.7 YPC and has rushed for 100 yards five times. He is joined by backup HB Fred Coppet (694 rush yards, 6 TD) who has also been impressive with 5.6 YPC and showed what he could do with plenty of carries, as he had 140 yards on 16 attempts (8.8 YPC) against Ball State on Nov. 28. WRs Roger Lewis (956 rec yards, 5 TD) and Ryan Burbrink (719 rec yards, 3 TD) are the main receivers in the air attack, as Lewis managed to have five games of 100+ receiving yards while averaging 13.9 yards per catch. Where this team really struggled was on defense, as it allowed 33.9 PPG (19th-worst in FBS) behind 207.2 rushing YPG. LB Gabe Martin (110 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2 INT) and DB Brian Sutton (102 tackles, 7.5 TFL) will need to aid in improving this side of the ball in order to get a victory in this game.