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USU favored big over UTEP in New Mexico Bowl Saturday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 12/20/2014  at  5:16:00 AM
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UTEP MINERS (7-5)
vs. UTAH STATE AGGIES (9-4)

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM
Kickoff: Saturday, 2:20 p.m. ET
Line: Utah State -10, Total: 46

Utah State will attempt to win its third consecutive bowl game when it faces UTEP on Saturday as heavy favorites.

The Miners outperformed expectations this season while going 8-3-1 ATS and won five of their final seven contests SU. They had a few solid wins as underdogs (New Mexico, UTSA) this season, which put them over the top to earn a spot in the New Mexico Bowl. They did so with great ball security as they had a mere five combined turnovers in their past seven games while forcing the opposition to cough up the ball 11 times. UTEP does not frequent bowl games and has made just four since the 2000 season with its most recent one coming in 2010 when it also played in the New Mexico Bowl and lost to BYU. The loss marked the fifth consecutive bowl game defeat, as the team has not won a postseason game since 1967. The Aggies put together another solid effort in the regular season and nearly finished off the year with a six-game SU winning streak before being dominated by a score of 50-19 against Boise State in the final contest of the year. Overall they were 6-7 ATS while covering in all four games in which they were at least double-digit favorites over their opponents. This will be the third straight season that Utah State is in a bowl game, and it has been great in the previous two while going 2-0 (both SU and ATS) as it defeated Toledo 41-15 in the Humanitarian Bowl as a 10-point favorite back in 2012 followed by a close 21-14 victory while giving 2.5 points to Northern Illinois last year in the Poinsettia Bowl. Some trends to watch in this one include that Utah State is 3-16 ATS (16%) coming off a road blowout loss by 28+ points or more since 1992 while being an impressive 13-3 ATS (81%) after a game where it forced one or less turnovers in the past three seasons. The Miners have two injuries to contend with -- LB Anthony Puente (undisclosed) and C Paulo Melendez (concussion) -- while the Aggies will move forward with their fourth option under center as top three QBs Chuckie Keeton (knee), Darell Garretson (wrist) and Craig Harrison (knee) all suffered season-ending injuries.

Can Utah State cover the big spread on Saturday with its fourth-string quarterback? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 75% ATS mark (6-2) in College Football Best Bets in the past three weeks, while StatFox Brian is 60% ATS (9-6) in Best Bets over the past four weeks.

UTEP had a great rushing attack this year (212.7 YPG, 34th in nation) and the school hopes that it can overcome its inability to get it done through the air (144.3 YPG) as they are scoring only 28.3 PPG. QB Jameill Showers (1,732 pass yards, 12 TD, 5 INT) has eclipsed 200 passing yards just twice on the season while throwing only one touchdown pass over the final four contests of the year. He connected on a meager 55.7% of his passes for 6.6 YPA and is coming off his best rushing performance (59 rushyards, 1 TD) in the final game of the year. The real meat of this offense comes from the legs of HB Aaron Jones (1,233 rush yards, 11 TD) who has six 100-yard rushing performances on the year while averaging 5.7 YPC. He also was able to contribute as a receiver with 27 grabs for 284 yards (10.5 avg) and three touchdowns. Besides Jones, the biggest threat through the air is WR Ian Hamilton (506 rec yards, 2 TD) who is gaining an incredible 21.1 yards per catch and has two triple-digit receiving performances on the year. The defense for this program has limited opponents to 28.7 PPG this season while being fantastic against the pass (201.5 YPG, 32nd in FBS). DB Wesley Miller (74 tackles, 1 INT) is a big part of why this team is so solid against opposing quarterbacks and will need to put up a big game for the Miners to have a chance at the upset.

Utah State is on its fourth quarterback this season, and as a result is throwing for just 208.8 YPG while adding 172.5 YPG on the ground (56th in nation), leading to 27.4 PPG. QB Kent Myers (798 pass yards, 5 TD, 2 INT) has come in and done a fantastic job as the starter, while going 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) thanks to his 69% completion rate and 7.5 YPA. He can also get it done with his legs and has double-digit rushing attempts in two of his games while going for 240 yards (5.9 YPC) and four total touchdowns on the year. HBs LaJuan Hunt (524 rush yards, 1 TD) and Joe Hill (457 yards, 3 TDs) have been a huge part of this offense while gaining 4.5 YPC combined. Although, the real threat for this offense in both the ground game and air attack is WR JoJo Natson (457 rec yards, 2 TD) who is second on the team in receptions (49) while also adding 458 rushing yards on just 45 attempts (10.2 YPC) and 3 TD. WR Hunter Sharp (918 rec yards, 7 TD) has been the No. 1 receiver while posting 63 receptions (14.6 avg) and going over the 100-yard mark four times on the year. The most impressive part of this team is its defense that has held opponents to a mere 20.8 PPG (20th in FBS) as it has shut down opposing rushing attacks to the tune of 129.3 YPG (26th in FBS). As brothers, LBs Zach Vigil (145 tackles, 9 sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD) and Nick Vigil (116 tackles, 7 sacks, 1 INT) have taken over this defense, while DL B.J. Larsen (9 sacks, 34 tackles) and DB Frankie Sutera (7 INT, 83 tackles, 2.5 sacks) will also be a major factor in the outcome of this game.


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