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Clippers try to add to Spurs misery on Monday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/22/2014  at  6:06:00 AM
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LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (19-8)

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (17-11)

Tip-off: Monday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -1.5, Total: 202

The slumping Spurs try to end a rare four-game losing skid when the Clippers fly in for a visit on Monday night.

Los Angeles has also been in a bit of a tailspin since its nine-game win streak from Nov. 24 to Dec. 10, going 1-5 ATS (3-3 SU) in its past six contests. Although the club did barely beat 10.5-point underdog Milwaukee at Staples Center on Saturday by a 106-102 score, it has now lost three straight road games (SU and ATS) and sits just 8-5 SU (6-7 ATS) away from home this season. San Antonio fell for the fourth straight time (1-3 ATS) in Saturday's 99-93 loss at Dallas, but has also lost three in a row at AT&T Center, lowering its record to 8-4 SU (4-8 ATS) at home this season. These teams are meeting for the second time this season, as the teams played a low-scoring game on Nov. 10 where the Spurs prevailed 89-85 despite shooting 39.8% FG and 2-of-19 threes. That gives San Antonio a 5-3 SU advantage (4-4 ATS) in this series over the past three seasons. Dating back to 1997, the Spurs are a dominant 30-3 SU (22-10-1 ATS) when hosting the Clippers. Both teams have three-star betting trends, as cold (6 or 7 losses in previous 8 games) and tired (9+ games in 14 days) favorites are just 3-22 ATS (12%) over the past five seasons. But under head Gregg Popovich, San Antonio is 19-4 ATS (83%) at home after three straight games where they made 42% FG or worse. Injuries could be a major factor in this game, as the Clippers are only missing C Spencer Hawes (leg), but the Spurs are expected to be without their two best players, PG Tony Parker (hamstring) and SF Kawhi Leonard (hand).

Can the short-handed Spurs finally end their losing skid on Monday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. While StatFox Forecaster has a strong 57% ATS record (72-54-1) in featured games this season, the five experts have also done well recently with a collective 58% ATS mark (49-35-2) in NBA Best Bets since Nov. 29. StatFox Brian is 72% ATS (13-5) during this timeframe to give him a 58% ATS record (23-17) in NBA Best Bets this season, while StatFox Gary is 65% ATS (11-6) since Nov. 29 to improve to 58% ATS (23-17) in NBA Best Bets this season. Also during this surge, StatFox Dave is 65% ATS (11-6-1).

The Clippers have one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA with 106.4 PPG (4th in league) on 47.8% FG (3rd in NBA), 38.8% threes (2nd in league) and 24.5 APG (5th in NBA). Defensively, this team is mediocre, allowing 100.2 PPG (16th in NBA) on 45.7% FG (20th in league), but defends the perimeter very well, allowing only 34.1% threes (9th in NBA). PG Chris Paul (17.9 PPG, 9.9 APG, 1.9 SPG) is the leader of this team, and he is really hitting his stride with 21.3 PPG, 11.0 APG and 3.3 SPG in his past three games. Paul nearly had a triple-double in the Nov. 10 meeting with the Spurs, finishing with 12 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists. With Tony Parker likely missing this game, Paul should have another monster night. PF Blake Griffin (23.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.4 APG) is also in the midst of an outstanding season, and he has benefitted greatly from Paul's improved play in the past three games, scoring 29.0 PPG with 11.3 RPG and 5.3 APG in this same timeframe. Griffin also had a double-double in the earlier meeting with the Spurs, netting 23 points (53% FG) with 10 rebounds and also six assists. C DeAndre Jordan (9.1 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 2.4 BPG) was held to six points in that loss to San Antonio, but was still a beast on the defensive end of the court with 13 boards and five blocks. Jordan has at least 14 rebounds in nine of his past 10 games, where he's averaged 15.8 RPG. But for L.A. to win Monday's game, SGs Jamal Crawford (16.0 PPG, 35% threes) and J.J. Redick (14.6 PPG, 41% threes), who have both been instrumental in the Clippers' success this season, will have to shoot much better than they did on Nov. 10 when the duo combined to make only 7-of-23 FG, including 3-of-13 threes.

San Antonio's offense hasn't been great this season with 102.1 PPG (15th in NBA) on 45.8% FG (14th in league), but it has drained 37.8% threes (4th in NBA) and dished out 23.7 APG (6th in league). The reason the club is suffering through a four-game losing skid is its defense that has allowed 113.3 PPG during the slide, despite holding these four opponents to a mere 44.1% FG clip. For the season, the Spurs allow only 97.5 PPG (8th in NBA) on 43.8% FG (7th in league). With PG Tony Parker (16.0 PPG) and SF Kawhi Leonard (15.2 PPG) -- who combined for 39 points in the Nov. 10 win over the Clippers -- both likely to miss this game, veterans PF Tim Duncan (15.8 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 3.1 APG, 2.4 BPG) and SG Manu Ginobili (12.6 PPG, 4.7 APG) will both have to look for their offense more. After logging 48 minutes on Wednesday and 43 minutes on Friday in what were both three-overtime marathons, Duncan sat out Saturday to rest. He poured in 55 points and 26 rebounds in those games, and should be ready to put up big numbers on Monday. In the earlier meeting with L.A., Duncan recorded a double-double with 18 points and 11 boards. Ginobili also sat out on Saturday after logging a combined 71 minutes in those back-to-back, 3-OT games and contributing 32 points (12-of-37 FG), 13 rebounds and 13 assists, but he also committed nine turnovers. He'll need to add more than his pedestrian 10 points, four boards and three assists in the earlier meeting with Los Angeles. SG Danny Green (12.7 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 1.3 BPG) was also benched for Saturday's game due to rest, as he averaged 26.0 PPG on 47% FG (13-of-22 threes) with 8.5 RPG and 2.5 BPG in the pair of OT defeats. He has been having a fantastic season overall, including 44% shooting from three-point range, but was a non-factor in the Nov. 10 win over L.A. with only two points (1-of-5 FG) and a minus-14 rating.


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