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NIU and Marshall collide Tuesday in Boca Raton
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 12/23/2014  at  5:14:00 AM
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NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (11-2)
vs. MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD (12-1)

Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL
Kickoff: Tuesday, 6:00 p.m. ET
Line: Marshall -10, Total: 67

Marshall looks to extend its bowl game winning streak to four when it takes on Northern Illinois in the inaugural Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday night.

The Huskies had a huge year as they finished the season with seven consecutive SU wins (4-3 ATS) and they capped it all off with a big 51-17 victory as 5-point favorites over Bowling Green in the MAC Championship game. Overall they had three victories when they were considered the underdog (Northwestern, Ohio and Western Michigan), as they defeated opponents by an average of 12.7 PPG during the winning streak. NIU was one of the better programs with ball security, as it turned the ball over a mere 13 times on the year. This will mark the seventh consecutive season that the school reaches a bowl game, but it has lost its previous two bowls (both SU and ATS) with defeats by an average of 14.0 PPG. The Thundering Herd nearly had a perfect season, as they started out the year with 11 straight wins SU (7-3-1 ATS) where they defeated their opponents by 28.5 PPG. Marshall did not have a tough schedule though, as it was favored in every one of its contests and was able to come away with a C-USA title after narrowly defeating 8.5-point underdog Louisiana Tech in the championship game by a score of 26-23. They Herd have been tremendous in their past three trips to a bowl game, which came in 2009, 2011 and 2013, as they won each time (SU and ATS), including a 31-20 victory in the Eagle Bank Bowl as 2.5-point favorites against Maryland last season. These teams have met just twice since 1992 (1999 and 2001) with the Thundering Herd winning each time (both SU and ATS). Trends show that Northern Illinois is 6-0 ATS after a win by 21 or more points in the past two seasons, while Marshall is a solid 8-2 ATS (80%) in games played on a neutral field since 1992. The injury report has no significant omissions from the Huskies side of the ball, while HB Devon Johnson (shoulder) is expected to play in this one for the Thundering Herd.

Which conference champion will capture the first-ever Boca Raton Bowl? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 73% ATS mark (8-3) in College Football Best Bets in the past four weeks of the regular season, while StatFox Brian is 63% ATS (10-6) in Best Bets over the past five weeks. Brian began his bowl season with a perfect 6-0 ATS record in all picks, while Dave, StatFox Scott and StatFox Forecaster are all 4-2 ATS in bowl picks.

The Huskies’ rushing game is their calling card, as they rank 14th in the nation with 252.9 YPG on the ground and add a mere 189.5 YPG through the air as they score 32.2 PPG. QB Drew Hare (2,097 pass yards, 17 TD, 2 INT) was solid when called upon as a passer this year, and hit on 59.9% of his passes for 7.0 YPA with his second pick coming in the final game of the season. He adds a nice element with his legs also, with 850 yards (5.9 YPC) and eight rushing touchdowns. HB Cameron Stingily (895 rush yards, 13 TD) gained 5.1 YPC on the season and was a scoring machine down the stretch as he got into the end zone 11 times over the final seven contests. He had four performances of 100+ rushing yards, including and 116 yards (7.7 YPC) and 2 TD in the MAC Championship game. WR Da’Ron Brown (1,002 rec yards, 6 TD) was phenomenal in what is a rush-heavy offense, as he hit triple-digits in receiving yards three times and averaged 15.7 yards per catch. Brown had at least five receptions in 7-of-13 games, but had just one touchdown over the past six. The defense for this program allowed an average of 23.6 PPG (36th in nation) as it allowed 158.5 YPG on the ground. DB Marlon Moore (93 tackles, 1 INT) and DL Jason Meehan (7 sacks, 48 tackles) do a great job of leading this side of the ball and will need to step it up in this tough matchup.

Marshall was one of the most explosive offenses in the nation this season while ranking amongst the top-20 in both passing (287.8 YPG, 18th in FBS) and rushing (275.6 YPG, 7th in nation) as it scored 45.1 PPG (5th in FBS). QB Rakeem Cato (3,622 pass yards, 37 TD, 13 INT) had some incredible performances this season while averaging 279 YPG through the air and 8.8 YPA. He’s a big threat in the rushing game as well, rumbling for 457 yards (5.4 YPC) and 6 TD, including one game where he surpassed 100 yards on the ground. HB Devon Johnson (1,636 rush yards, 16 TD) averaged an amazing 8.6 YPC, as he eclipsed the 100-yard mark in nine of his 12 games. He had four multi-TD performances on the year too, but could not get into the end zone in any of the final three games as he was dealing with injuries. WR Tommy Shuler (953 rec yards, 8 TD) was the primary target for Cato, as he totaled 27 catches over the final three contests of the season where he averaged 116 YPG. The Herd have plenty of other red-zone threats besides Shuler on the team, as eight different players caught multiple TD passes over the course of the year. They were solid on the defensive side of things as well while giving up a mere 20.8 PPG to their opponents (22nd in FBS), as they did particularly well against the pass (194.7 YPG, 25th in nation). LBs Neville Hewitt (114 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Jermaine Holmes (96 tackles, 1 sack) along with DL Arnold Blackmon (8 sacks, 38 tackles) have done a great job giving their opposition trouble all season, and it should be no different come Tuesday.


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