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NC State, UCF clash in Friday's St. Petersburg Bowl
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/26/2014  at  5:15:00 AM
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NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK (7-5)
vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS (9-3)

St. Petersburg Bowl
Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL
Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: UCF -2, Total: 49

Two schools looking to extend their win streaks meet in Friday's St. Petersburg Bowl when NC State faces American Athletic Conference co-champion Central Florida.

Both schools closed out the regular season on a high with wins as 6.5-point underdogs. NC State won three of its final four games (SU and ATS) by playing turnover-free football in all three victories. The school has also won two of its past three bowl games. UCF finished with four straight wins (SU and ATS), capped off by a pair of road victories at South Florida and East Carolina thanks to a final-play Hail Mary. This school is riding a three-game bowl win streak, including a 52-42 upset of 17-point favorite Baylor in the Jan. 1 Fiesta Bowl. Wolfpack QB Jacoby Brissett threw 22 TD and only 5 INT this season, and also rushed for 498 yards, but it's not easy piling up yards versus a Knights team allowing a mere 17.9 PPG this season, good for ninth-best in the nation. Both teams won three road games this season, and both won big at South Florida, with NC State prevailing 49-17, and UCF winning 16-0. The Wolfpack are 22-10 ATS in non-home games after a bye week since 1992, while the Knights are 10-0 ATS in the past two seasons after playing their previous game on the road. The only significant injury for either team is Central Florida G Joey Grant, who is listed as doubtful with a shoulder injury.

Which school will enter the offseason with a lengthy win streak? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 73% ATS mark (8-3) in College Football Best Bets in the past four weeks, while StatFox Brian is 63% ATS (10-6) in Best Bets over the past five weeks. Brian began his bowl season with a perfect 6-0 ATS record in all picks through Monday, while Dave, StatFox Scott and StatFox Forecaster are all 4-2 ATS in bowl picks.

NC State has a very balanced offense with 206 rushing YPG (37th in nation) on 5.4 YPC and 196 passing YPG, leading to 29.8 PPG. The offense has also done well in its five road games (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) by chewing up the clock for 32:54 in time of possession and outgaining these hosts by 56 yards per game. QB Jacoby Brissett (2,344 pass yards, 6.8 YPA, 22 TD, 5 INT) has not only thrown the ball exceptionally well, but has chewed up 498 rushing yards (4.5 YPC) and three scores for the season. This includes his 167 yards on just 14 carries (11.9 YPC) in the upset at North Carolina on Nov. 29. The team's main ball carrier is junior Shadrach Thornton (811 rush yards, 5.5 YPC, 9 TD) who closed out the regular season with back-to-back games of 110+ rushing yards and one touchdown. When Brissett does drop back to pass, he'll first look for WR Bo Hines (42 rec, 537 yards, 1 TD), who is the only wideout on NC State with at least 350 receiving yards. Sophomore TE David Grinnage (25 rec, 331 yards, 5 TD) is the main red-zone threat with his 6-foot-5, 269-pound frame. On defense, the Wolfpack allow a pedestrian 27.0 PPG (68th in nation), while giving up only 197 passing YPG and 176 rushing YPG. Although they were unable to stop Georgia Tech's triple option that hung 479 rushing yards on NC State on Nov. 8, since that date, the Wolfpack have held their two opponents to 88 rushing yards on 63 carries (1.4 YPC). They have also done a great job of forcing turnovers with eight takeaways in the past four games.

Central Florida's offense scores only 28.2 PPG (including 21.3 PPG away from home) and gains 362.8 total YPG. This is split into a breakdown of 132 rushing YPG (3.2 YPC) and 231 passing YPG. It has been the defense that has carried this club, allowing only 17.9 PPG on 282.8 total YPG (4.3 yards per play). Sophomore QB Justin Holman (2,661 pass yards, 7.9 YPA, 20 TD, 13 INT) has stepped in admirably this year for the departed Blake Bortles, throwing at least one touchdown pass in all 12 games this season. Holman has been helped greatly by the presence of RB William Stanback (659 rush yards, 3.7 YPC, 10 TD), who after a two-game absence, made his triumphant return on Dec. 4 in East Carolina with 101 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) to help the Knights pull off the stunning victory as 6.5-point underdogs. Central Florida also has another star in junior WR Breshad Perriman (906 rec yards, 9 TD), who is a beast to bring down with his 6-foot-3 frame and averages 22.1 yards per reception. Perriman was on the receiving end of Holman's 51-yard TD pass on the final play of the Dec. 4 win at ECU. That 32-30 win gave the Knights a share of the conference title with Memphis. Turnovers have been a problem for the Knights this year, as they have at least one giveaway in nine straight games, totaling 23 miscues in this stretch. But the UCF defense has been the equalizer with eight games of at least two takeaways.


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