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Bengals, Steelers play for division title Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 12/28/2014  at  5:03:00 AM
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CINCINNATI BENGALS (10-4-1)
at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-5)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: Pittsburgh -3.5, Total: 48

The Bengals and Steelers battle for first place in the AFC North when the teams meet at Heinz Field on Sunday night.

Both red-hot teams secured playoff berths last week, but the winner of Sunday night's game captures the division and opens the postseason at home. Cincinnati is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in its past six contests, with four of those SU victories coming as an underdog, including Monday's 37-28 win over the Broncos. Pittsburgh won its third straight game (SU and ATS) last Sunday with a 20-12 victory over Kansas City, and is averaging 29.7 PPG and 408 total YPG during its win streak. These teams met just three weeks ago, when the Steelers pounded the Bengals in a 42-21 as 3-point road underdogs. Pittsburgh has now won-and-covered in two straight in this series, and has also won-and-covered five of its past seven games against Cincinnati at Heinz Field. Although both of these teams have explosive offenses, four of the past five meetings in this series have finished Under the total. Over the past two seasons, the Bengals are 9-2 ATS as an underdog and 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The Steelers, meanwhile, are 16-7 ATS after the first month of the season in that same timeframe, and 28-14 ATS since 1992 in home games after having winning six or seven of their previous eight games. The big injury question mark in this game is Cincinnati star WR A.J. Green (arm), who says he'll be able to play. The only other Bengals injury of note is WR James Wright (knee), who isn't likely to suit up. Pittsburgh could still be missing two of its top players in the secondary in S Troy Polamalu (knee) and CB Ike Taylor (shoulder), who both sat out last week and are questionable for this showdown.

Who will capture the AFC North crown on Sunday night? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. StatFox Gary is coming off a perfect 5-0 ATS record in Best Bets for Week 16, and is now 71% ATS (20-8-1) in Best Bets since Week 9. StatFox Dave is 56% ATS (32-25-2) in Best Bets during since Week 3, while StatFox Scott is 54% ATS (31-26-1) during this same timeframe. StatFox Brian is 54% (28-24) in NFL Totals this season.

The Bengals had struggled in primetime games over the years, but they should have a major boost in confidence after beating the Broncos on Monday night. Rookie RB Jeremy Hill (1,024 rush yards, 9 TD) came up huge in the win, rushing 22 times for 147 yards and a touchdown. RB Giovani Bernard (672 rush yards, 5 TD) was also excellent for Cincy, rushing for 36 yards on eight carries (4.5 YPC) and also catching five passes for 45 yards and a touchdown. This duo could struggle against a Steelers defense that is allowing just 99.3 rushing yards per game (6th in NFL) this season. The pair carried the football only 14 times for 63 yards (4.5 YPC) in the Week 14 loss to Pittsburgh, but could see much more action with WR A.J. Green (61 rec, 959 yards, 6 TD) either out for this game or banged up. Green finished the victory over the Broncos with no catches on four targets, but he was unbelievable versus the Steelers three weeks ago with 11 catches for 224 yards, including an 81-yard touchdown reception. QB Andy Dalton (3,154 pass yards, 17 TD, 15 INT) didn’t do anything special last week, throwing for 146 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT, but he played very well in Week 14 by completing 72.4% of his passes for 302 yards (10.4 YPA) with 2 TD and 0 INT. This Cincinnati defense may have allowed 28 points in Monday's win, but it did pick off Peyton Manning four times. For the season, the Bengals allow 360.2 total YPG (22nd in NFL), but hold opponents to just 21.1 PPG (T-9th in league). They’ll need to find a way to slow down Le’Veon Bell and Ben Roethlisberger in this one, something they could not do three weeks ago.

The Steelers are one of the hottest teams in football right now, beating the Chiefs 20-12 last week for their fourth SU win in five games. Ben Roethlisberger (4,635 yards, 30 TD, 8 INT) didn’t need to do much to win last week, throwing for just 220 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. But when he visited the Bengals in Week 14, he threw for 350 yards (9.2 YPA) with 3 TD and 0 INT in the 42-21 victory. If Roethlisberger is playing well, it likely means that top WR Antonio Brown (122 rec, 1,570 yards, 12 TD) has made his mark on the game. Brown caught seven passes for 72 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs and hauled in nine catches for 117 yards the last time he faced the Bengals. If this passing game is able to get going, RB Le’Veon Bell (1,341 rush yards, 4.8 YPC, 8 TD) will have plenty of room to work with. Bell rushed for 63 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries against the Chiefs last week, but was unstoppable in Cincinnati earlier this month with 235 total yards (185 rushing, 50 receiving) and three touchdowns. Bell now has a five-game touchdown streak (8 TD in 5 games) and 2,115 total yards for the season. Defensively, Pittsburgh ranks 30th in the league in yards per play allowed (6.1), but has the NFL's lowest defensive time of possession (27:06) which has helped the team limit its past three opponent to 21 or fewer points. The Steelers produced six sacks last week versus the Chiefs, and will need to find a way to make Andy Dalton uncomfortable in this one.


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