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Nebraska faces No. 24 USC Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/27/2014  at  6:55:00 AM
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NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (9-3)
vs. USC TROJANS (8-4)

Holiday Bowl
Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: USC -7, Total: 62

Nebraska and its interim head coach travel to San Diego on Saturday night to take on No. 24 USC in the Holiday Bowl.

The Cornhuskers will be playing under Barney Cotton, who served as run game coordinator and tight ends coach under former head coach Bo Pelini, who was fired after a regular season where his club finished on a 1-4 ATS skid (3-2 ATS). Despite the struggles, Nebraska is 25-6 ATS (81%) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their previous 6 games since 1992. The Trojans are 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) in their past seven contests, but losses at Utah and UCLA ended their Pac-12 title hopes. However, USC's Steve Sarkisian is a perfect 10-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as a college football head coach. Both teams know how to put up major points, but do it in different ways. The Huskers' offense revolves around a ground game propelled by RB Ameer Abdullah (1,523 rush yards, 18 TD), while the Trojans lean heavily on the arm of QB Cody Kessler (3,505 pass yards, 36 TD). Nebraska has committed multiple turnovers in eight of nine games, while USC has multiple takeaways in five of the past six contests. These teams last met in a home-and-home series in 2006 and 2007 with the Trojans winning both matchups rather easily, 28-10 and 49-31. Despite the long layoff since their last games, both schools have plenty of injury concerns for Saturday. The Huskers have three offensive linemen who are doubtful in C Mark Pelini (ankle), OT Zach Sterup (undisclosed) and OL Ryne Reeves (undisclosed), and four others are questionable -- LB Trevor Roach (foot), DB Corey Cooper (foot), LB Marcus Newby (undisclosed) and WR Alonzo Moore (undisclosed). USC will likely be without DL Antwaun Woods (pectoral), while WR Ajene Harris (hamstring), DL Cody Temple (back), LB Uchenna Nwosu (ankle) and G Jordan Simmons (knee) are all questionable.

Can Nebraska pull off the upset with an interim head coach? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 67% ATS mark (8-4) in College Football Best Bets since Nov. 20, while StatFox Brian is 59% ATS (10-7) in Best Bets since Nov. 12. Brian is a stellar 7-3 ATS in all bowl picks through Thursday, and StatFox Forecaster is also 7-3 ATS in bowl picks.

Nebraska has done a great job offensively with 37.4 PPG (14th in nation), thanks to a ground game delivering 248.3 rushing YPG (17th in FBS). The air attack gains just 198.0 YPG (92nd in nation) though, as QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. (2,314 pass yards, 7.9 YPA, 19 TD, 11 INT) has completed only 51.7% of his passes this season. He failed to reach 275 passing yards in any game this season, but is coming off a season-high 4 TD passes in a 37-34 overtime win at Iowa on Nov. 28. The dual-threat quarterback has done a nice job with his legs though, carrying the football 133 times for 664 yards (5.0 YPC) and five touchdowns. But these numbers are nothing compared to senior RB Ameer Abdullah, whose 1,523 rushing yards have come on 6.4 yards per carry, and he's also averaging 13.0 yards per reception. But although he has scored 21 total touchdowns, the past four games have provided only two end-zone trips. Just two Cornhuskers receivers have reached 250 yards through the air this season, WRs Kenny Bell (40 rec, 717 yards, 5 TD) and Jordan Westerkamp (41 rec, 666 yards, 4 TD). The senior Bell has gained 70+ yards in half of his games this season, and scored twice in the most recent contest against Iowa. But the sophomore Westerkamp has eclipsed 60 receiving yards just once in his past nine games, scoring only one touchdown during this stretch. Defensively, Nebraska has allowed 24.8 PPG (45th in FBS) despite surrendering 373 total YPG, which is divided pretty evenly between passing (196 YPG on 5.9 YPA) and rushing (176 YPG on 4.7 YPC), but it will have its hands full with the Trojans talented playmakers.

USC also has an explosive offense that scores 35.1 PPG (27th in nation) thanks largely to 294.6 passing YPG (15th in FBS), but the school does have capable ground game with 158.2 rushing YPG (69th in nation). Junior QB Cody Kessler (3,505 pass yards, 8.5 YPA, 36 TD, 4 INT) has connected on 70.7% of his passes this season, with his lowest completion rate all season being 62.2%. After starting the season with 11 TD passes in his first six games, Kessler has thrown an eye-popping 25 touchdowns in his past six contests, including 6 TD and 0 INT in the most recent game on Nov. 29, a 49-14 drubbing of Notre Dame. His top target this season has been junior WR Nelson Agholor (97 rec, 1,223 yards, 11 TD) who has gained at least 110 yards in five of his past six games, where he's scored 7 TD. Although Agholor has accounted for 35% of the air attack, eight other USC players have caught multiple touchdowns this season. Freshman WR JuJu Smith (51 rec, 658 yards, 5 TD) is the only other pass catcher with at least 500 receiving yards. The Trojans also rely heavily on one player to carry the rushing load, as RB Javorius Allen (1,337 rush yards, 5.3 YPC, 9 TD) has more than 70% of his team's yards on the ground. Allen has eight games of 100+ rushing yards, but he hasn't been great in his past three contests with only 71.0 rushing YPG on 3.9 YPC and zero 100-yard games. This defense has had its ups and downs all season, but allows only 23.8 PPG (35th in nation) and 132 rushing YPG on 3.9 YPC. The secondary has been the biggest trouble area, surrendering 268 passing YPG on 6.4 YPA.


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