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Texas A&M and WVU clash Monday in Memphis
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 12/29/2014  at  4:07:00 AM
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TEXAS A&M AGGIES (7-5)
vs. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (7-5)

Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN
Kickoff: Monday, 2:00 p.m. ET
Line: West Virginia -2.5, Total: 65

Texas A&M attempts to win its fourth straight bowl game when it takes on West Virginia on Monday afternoon.

After going 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS) over their first five games, the Aggies struggled down the stretch, as they stumbled to a 2-5 SU record (1-6 ATS) since Oct. 4. Their five losses in that time came by an average of 20.8 PPG with their one really embarrassing defeat being a 59-0 trumping from Alabama when Texas A&M was an 11.5-point underdog on the road. The team did look better in the final four games though, defeating both UL-Monroe and a strong Auburn team before losing by an average of just 6.5 PPG against the likes of Missouri and LSU to finish off the regular season. This program has been very strong in their recent bowl games, going 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) in the past three seasons but failed to cover the 14-point spread in a wild 52-48 win over Duke in the Chick-fil-A bowl last season. The Mountaineers also come into this game slumping, as they lost three of their final four contests SU (2-2 ATS) and absorbed losses to both Texas and Kansas State when favored. This comes on the heels of a great start in which WVU was 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS) with its signature win coming at home against Baylor when it grabbed a 41-27 victory as 8-point underdogs. The Mountaineers did not do well enough to make a bowl last season and were a mere 1-3 (SU and ATS) in the previous four years, as they were the favorite in each of the three losses and the underdog in their one victory. Bettors should know that West Virginia is a woeful 0-8 ATS as a neutral-field favorite since 1992 while the Aggies are a putrid 6-22 ATS (21%) in road games after a bye week in the same time frame. The big injury in this one is to Mountaineers QB Clint Trickett (concussion) whose injury has forced him to retire from football. WVU will also be without two defensive players due to academics, DL Brandon Jackson and S Cullen Christian. Texas A&M has no significant injuries heading into Monday's game.

Which school will end the season with eight victories? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 62% ATS mark (8-5) in College Football Best Bets since Nov. 20, while StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (11-8) in Best Bets since Nov. 12. Brian is a strong 61% ATS (11-7) in all bowl picks, and StatFox Forecaster is 67% ATS (12-6) in all bowl picks.

Texas A&M liked to air it out all season as they ranked 12th in the nation in passing (306.4 YPG), while running the ball for 142.8 YPG and scored 34.4 PPG (31st in FBS). QB Kyle Allen (1,028 pass yards, 12 TD, 6 INT) filled in for Kenny Hill after off-field issues and became the starter for the final four games of the year while averaging 191 passing YPG with 9 TD and 4 INT in that time. Allen looked as if he was beginning to feel more comfortable in the offense as he completed 60-of-91 passes (66%) over the final three contests. There was no one elite runner in this offense, as the trio of HBs Trey Williams (474 rush yards, 6 TD), Tra Carson (448 rush yards, 5 TD) and Brandon Williams (374 rush yards, 3 TD) combined to average 5.1 YPC. WR Josh Reynolds (762 rec yards, 12 TD) was the difference-maker on this side of the ball, as he averaged 16.2 yards per catch while having just one game over 100 receiving yards. He was a huge red-zone threat though, and caught multiple TD passes in four games. Where this program really fell off was on defense, as it allowed 27.3 PPG and 449.0 YPG of total offense (24th-worst in FBS). DL Myles Garrett (11 sacks, 50 tackles) had no issues getting to the quarterback in his freshman campaign, and is a player to watch as he attacks the West Virginia offense.

West Virginia also tends to lean on its air attack to move the football, as the team put up 314.6 YPG through the air (9th in FBS) while adding 187.5 rushing YPG (44th in nation) which led to 33.2 PPG (38th in FBS). QB Skyler Howard (483 pass yards, 5 TD, 0 INT) will draw the start in front of Trickett and finished off the season with a great performance (285 pass yards, 3 TD, 0 INT) in the win over Iowa State. He also added 69 yards on seven rushing attempts (9.9 YPC) in that game, and should provide a nice dual-threat for the Mountaineers. HBs Rushel Shell (766 rush yards, 7 TD) and Wendell Smallwood (645 rush yards, 2 TD) did well as a tandem for this ground game, while Shell went for 100+ yards three different times. Smallwood also added plenty of production as a receiver, as he compiled 30 catches for 321 yards (10.7 avg). WR Kevin White (1,318 rec yards, 9 TD) lit up opposing defenses with eight performances of better than 100 receiving yards, but he struggled over the final five games while going for only 59.6 YPG and two touchdowns. WR Mario Alford (888 rec yards, 10 TD) also was huge for the air attack, and was able to get six scores in the final six games of the year. The defense allowed 26.2 PPG to its opponents as the unit was average in total yards allowed (388.6 YPG, 57th in FBS). LB Nick Swiatkoski (96 tackles, 10.5 TFL) has been the leader on this side of the ball and will be counted on to throw everything at freshman quarterback Kyle Allen on Monday.


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