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Texas, Arkansas meet in Monday's Texas Bowl
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 12/29/2014  at  6:30:00 AM
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TEXAS LONGHORNS (6-6)
vs. ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (6-6)

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium - Houston, TX
Kickoff: Monday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Arkansas -7, Total: 43.5

Two top programs who underperformed during the regular season try to get their record over .500 when Texas takes on Arkansas in the Texas Bowl on Monday night.

The Longhorns became bowl eligible after winning three of their final four contests on the year, as they had big victories against Texas Tech, West Virginia and Oklahoma State by an average of 19.7 PPG. They were dominated in the final contest though, when they hosted TCU as 5-point underdogs and were embarrassed by a score of 48-10 while turning the ball over six times. For the most part, Texas was actually solid with ball security as its offense had one or fewer turnovers in six of its 12 contests. The school had a tough bowl game against Oregon in the Alamo Bowl last season when they lost 30-7 as 15.5-point underdogs after defeating two other Pac-12 teams (Oregon State, California) in its previous two bowl games. The Razorbacks did well during their non-conference schedule, going 4-0 (both SU and ATS) as they played some weak competition but couldn’t get it going in the tough ACC; going 2-6 SU (5-3 ATS) while managing to get two huge wins back-to-back against LSU and Missouri who they combined to outscore 47-0. One of their biggest positives was keeping the ball out of the defense's hands, as they turned the ball over just five times in the final five games and 1.4 times per game over the entire season. Arkansas' last postseason game came after the 2011 campaign when it earned an impressive 29-16 win in the Cotton Bowl against Kansas State as a 9-point favorites. However, in the past four bowl games, the school is a mere 1-3 ATS and has seen the total go Under each time. Trends show that the Longhorns are 37-20 ATS (65%) after a game with a turnover margin of minus-2 or worse since 1992, while the Razorbacks have gone 10-1 ATS (91%) off an upset loss as a road favorite in the same timeframe. On the injury front, WR Jaxon Shipley (hamstring) has been upgraded to probable for Texas, while TE A.J. Derby (knee) has been downgraded to doubtful for Arkansas.

Which school will finish the 2014 season with a winning record? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 62% ATS mark (8-5) in College Football Best Bets since Nov. 20, while StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (11-8) in Best Bets since Nov. 12. Brian is a strong 61% ATS (11-7) in all bowl picks, and StatFox Forecaster is 67% ATS (12-6) in all bowl picks.

Texas looked lost on offense this season as it produced 211.8 passing YPG and 148.7 rushing YPG, while scoring a meager 22.6 PPG (25th-worst in FBS). QB Tyrone Swoopes (2,352 pass yards, 13 TD, 10 INT) had three 300-yard passing games on the season and finished with four of his 10 picks in the loss to TCU at the end of the season. He also had four games in which he rushed for at least 40 yards on the ground as he totaled 294 rushing yards (2.9 YPC) and 3 TD over the course of the year. HBs Malcolm Brown (683 rush yards, 6 TD) and Jonathan Gray (628 rush yards, 7 TD) split carries and combined to average a poor 4.1 YPC, while each player had a single 100-yard rushing performance on the year. WR John Harris (1,105 rec yards, 7 TD) is the difference maker for this offense while reaching triple-digits in yards four times, but had just one score over the final six contests. The defense is what held things together for this program, as the Longhorns allowed 23.3 PPG (32nd in FBS) behind a group that totaled 39 sacks over the year. LBs Jordan Hicks (104 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT) and Steve Edmond (100 tackles, 4.5 sacks) will be key players in this one for the Longhorns to end their season with a win.

Arkansas won its games by running the ball down the opposition's throat as evidenced by its 220.3 YPG on the ground (28th in FBS) as it added 190.3 passing YPG and scored 32.0 PPG. QB Brandon Allen (2,125 pass yards, 18 TD, 5 INT) never went over 300 yards passing in a game, but was able to be efficient with just one pick thrown in the final five games. He isn’t rushed often, as he was sacked a mere 11 times over the year, which is fantastic for a pocket-passer like Allen. The duo of HBs Jonathan Williams (1,085 rush yards, 11 TDs) and Alex Collins (1,024 rush yards, 12 TD) was the driving force behind any success this team has had as it combined to average 5.6 YPC. Williams had four performances of 100+ rushing yards while his counterpart Collins had three such games, as the players traded off big performances during the year. WR Keon Hatcher (517 rec yards, 5 TD) led the team with 39 receptions, as he averaged 13.3 yards per catch and scored a touchdown in each of the team’s final two games. The group on the defensive side of things did a great job in limiting opponents to a mere 20.3 PPG (17th in nation) and 124.0 rushing YPG (23rd in FBS). Senior LB Martell Spaight (123 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 1 INT) is the leader for this defense, and he should have a big performance in what will be his final career college football contest.


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