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Georgia, Louisville both look for win No. 10 on Tuesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 12/30/2014  at  5:25:00 AM
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GEORGIA BULLDOGS (9-3)
vs. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (9-3)

Belk Bowl
Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC
Kickoff: Tuesday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Line: Georgia -7, Total: 57.5

Louisville seeks its fourth straight win and third consecutive bowl victory when it clashes with Georgia in the Belk Bowl on Tuesday.

The Bulldogs did have a successful season with their nine wins while going 7-5 ATS. They were also tremendous at winning the turnover battle with 11 giveaways compared to forcing an impressive 27 turnovers. According to the oddsmakers, this Georgia team was considered the favorite in each game it played, and actually was a double-digit favorite in seven different contests. Of their five times being a single-digit favorite, the Bulldogs lost SU or ATS just once, and it was on the road against South Carolina where they were defeated 38-35 as 6.5-point favorites. This program has not had too much success in their recent bowl attempts, as they are 1-3 (both SU and ATS) over the past four seasons while once again being the favorite in each game. Last year it fell to Nebraska by a score of 24-19 in the Gator Bowl while giving 9.5 points. The Cardinals also went 7-5 ATS this season and come into this one as SU victors in their previous three contests; including a strong 31-28 win as 2.5-point road underdogs at Notre Dame, which improved their record away from home to 4-2 SU (5-1 ATS). Louisville may be in trouble with its poor ball security, as it gave the football away multiple times in eight games on the year, and is coming off a four-turnover performance in the close victory against Kentucky. Bowls have been good to them in each of the past two seasons, as it defeated a couple of teams from the Sunshine State while taking down both Florida and Miami by an average of 18.5 PPG. Bettors should be aware that Georgia is a solid 23-10 ATS (70%) against ACC opponents since 1992, while Louisville is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive ATS losses over the past two seasons. The big injury for Georgia is HB Todd Gurley (knee) who is out for the remainder of the season, and LB Leonard Floyd (shoulder) is also expected to miss this game for the Bulldogs. On the other side of the ball, Louisville QB Will Gardner (knee) remains out for the season, while HB Michael Dyer (academics) is expected to miss Tuesday's game. However, QB Reggie Bonnafon (knee) has been upgraded to probable.

Which school will secure its 10th win of the season on Tuesday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 62% ATS mark (8-5) in College Football Best Bets since Nov. 20, while StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (11-8) in Best Bets since Nov. 12. Brian is a strong 61% ATS (11-7) in all bowl picks, and StatFox Forecaster is 67% ATS (12-6) in all bowl picks.

Despite losing a player that is widely considered the best running back in the country in Todd Gurley, this Georgia team has put forth one of the best rushing efforts in the nation with 255.0 YPG (13th in FBS). The Bulldogs also pass for 199.9 YPG (90th in nation) and score 41.7 PPG (8th in FBS). QB Hutson Mason (2,019 pass yards, 20 TD, 4 INT) had 13 TDs to just 1 INT over the final seven games of the regular season, which included 319 passing yards against Florida, marking his only 200-yard game in that stretch. He was extremely efficient, as evidenced by his low interception total while completing 68% of his passes for 7.7 YPA. HB Nick Chubb (1,281 rush yards, 12 TD) took over right where Gurley left off, as he averaged 6.9 YPC and had seven consecutive 100-yard rushing performances to finish the regular season. He had at least one score in each of those contests as well, while adding to the passing game with 213 yards on 18 catches (11.8 avg) and two touchdowns. WRs Chris Conley (577 rec yards, 7 TD) and Michael Bennett (381 rec yards, 4 TD) were the top two targets in the passing game. Conley was more of the big-play guy as he averaged 18.0 yards per catch. The defense for this program was also very impressive as it held opponents to 21.3 PPG (23rd in FBS) while limiting opposing quarterbacks to just 158.4 passing YPG (2nd in FBS). LBs Amarlo Herrera (112 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT) and Ramik Wilson (102 tackles, 6 TFL) held down the fort in the middle of the field and allowed for their teammates to make big plays.

Louisville brings a more balanced offense into this bowl game, going for 246.8 passing YPG (52nd in nation) and 149.4 rushing YPG (86th in FBS), which led to 32.6 PPG (43rd in nation). It is unclear yet whether it will be QB Reggie Bonnafon (850 pass yards, 5 TD, 3 INT) or QB Kyle Bolin (416 pass yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) starting in this game. They are both freshmen who have performed well with Will Gardner (1,669 pass yards, 12 TD, 3 INT) out. Bolin really impressed when he came in for an injured Bonnafon in the last game of the year, as he was 21-for-31 (68%) with 381 yards and three touchdowns (1 INT) in the victory over Kentucky. HB Brandon Radcliff (648 rush yards, 11 TD) will likely get all the carries he can handle with Dyer expected to miss this game. Radcliff has proven himself by averaging 5.2 YPC and going for triple-digits in rushing yards three times, as he has multiple scores in five different contests. WR DeVante Parker (735 rec yards, 5 TDs) is an absolute stud, and after missing the first seven games, he averaged 147 yards per contest while going for 21.0 yards per catch. He capped off the year with a 180-yard, 3-TD performance against Kentucky. This defense was also impressive, as it gave up 20.5 PPG (19th in nation) behind the 29th-ranked passing defense (199.6 YPG). Collectively they got to the quarterback 39 times for sacks, and sophomore S Gerod Holliman (37 tackles) did plenty with the errant passes coming his way, racking up an insane 14 interceptions this season.


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