Music City Bowl
LP Field - Nashville, TN
Kickoff: Tuesday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Line: LSU -7, Total: 52.5

Struggling Notre Dame attempts to break a four-game losing skid when it faces LSU in the Music City Bowl on Tuesday afternoon.

Earlier in the season the Fighting Irish looked to be poised to make a run at the national playoffs after starting 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) to kick off the 2014 campaign. It was all downhill from there though, as Notre Dame dropped five of its next six contests SU (1-5 ATS) while losing twice as a favorite. The Irish turned the ball over 15 times in that second part of the season and lost their games by an average of 13.8 PPG. They are no strangers to the postseason, as this will be their 15th bowl game appearance since the 1994 season, but they have been horrible in that time while going 3-11 SU, including failing to cover the spread in each of the past three tries. The Tigers have also had their troubles late in the season with losses in two of their past three games, while the total in their contests went Under in each of the past five games. They had no trouble with ball security throughout the season, as they committed one or fewer turnovers in 10-of-12 games, but forced their opposition into only four turnovers in the five games leading up to this one. LSU has made it to a bowl game every year since 2000, and went 9-5 SU in that time while coming off a 21-14 win as a 7.5-point favorite against Iowa last season in the Outback Bowl. It was the third straight bowl game that the school failed to cover the spread, losing to both Clemson and Alabama in the previous two opportunities. These two programs last met in the 2007 Sugar Bowl when the Tigers were 9-point favorites and proved to be the better team with a 41-14 victory, as they totaled 577 yards of total offense. Some trends to keep an eye on in this one include that LSU is a meager 1-8 ATS (11%) in the past three seasons in road games after an SU win, but the Irish have gone a poor 3-12 ATS (20%) since 1992 after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at halftime. Other than Notre Dame S Austin Collinsworth (shoulder, doubtful), neither team is dealing with any injuries that should affect the outcome of Tuesday’s contest.

Which slumping team will end its season on a high note? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 62% ATS mark (8-5) in College Football Best Bets since Nov. 20, while StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (11-8) in Best Bets since Nov. 12. Brian is a strong 61% ATS (11-7) in all bowl picks, and StatFox Forecaster is 67% ATS (12-6) in all bowl picks.

Notre Dame’s offense starts with a solid passing attack that has amassed 293.8 passing YPG (16th in nation) while it gets only 150.8 YPG (84th in FBS) from its runners and scores 33.0 PPG (39th in FBS). QB Everett Golson (3,355 pass yards, 29 TD, 14 INT) started every game for the Irish this season but was pulled after the first half in the final game after going 7-of-18 (39%) for 75 yards and a pick. He struggled with interceptions at the end of the year, as he threw seven picks over the final four games, but is always a threat with his legs, as evidenced by his 277 rushing yards (2.5 YPC) and eight touchdowns during the regular season. If head coach Brian Kelly decides he wants to go in a different direction, QB Malik Zaire (170 pass yards, 0 TD, 0 INT) would get the call under center. HB Tarean Folston (816 rush yards, 5 TD) averaged 5.3 YPC and was great down the stretch, as he gained over 100 rushing yards in four of the final six contests. WR William Fuller (1,037 rec yards, 14 TD) was the star in the air attack, as he averaged 109.5 YPG in his final four performances while scoring five touchdowns in that time. Notre Dame’s defense was tremendous at the start of the season while allowing a mere 12.0 PPG over the first five games before giving up 41.6 PPG in the next seven outings. Overall the school has allowed teams put up 29.3 PPG against them (86th in nation) and will need LB Jaylon Smith (102 tackles, 3 sacks) to be playing at the top of his game to earn a win in this one.

The Tigers have done little with their passing game, with only 163.9 YPG through the air (116th in nation), but they dominate on the ground (219.5 YPG, 29th in FBS) while scoring 27.6 PPG (74th in FBS). QB Anthony Jennings (1,460 pass yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) has eclipsed the 200-yard mark in passing just once this season, as he hit on a putrid 49% of his passes for 6.9 YPA. He can run when needed though, and did so in the season finale against Texas A&M where he rushed for 119 yards on 14 carries (8.5 YPC) in the win. Freshman HB Leonard Fournette (891 rush yards, 8 TDs) had four triple-digit rushing performances while averaging 5.1 YPC, and had his best game of his young career his last time out with 146 rushing yards and a touchdown. HB Terrence Magee (545 rush yards, 3 TD) also performed well with 5.2 YPC and had more than 70 yards on the ground in three of the final five games as the backup. WR Travin Dural (758 rec yards, 7 TD) is the only receiver on this team that could give opposing defenses fits, as he averaged a tremendous 20.5 yards per catch, but averaged only 33.0 YPG in the final eight games after a hot start. What really got LSU to this point is its potent defense that gave up the third-fewest points in FBS (16.4 PPG), as it did exceptionally well against the pass (162.3 YPG, 4th in FBS). This group is loaded with talent, and it all starts with the leadership of LBs Kwon Alexander (79 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Kendell Beckwith (68 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD).