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Michigan State hosts No. 12 Maryland Tuesday
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Published: 12/30/2014  at  4:53:00 AM
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MARYLAND TERRAPINS (12-1)

at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (9-4)

Breslin Center - East Lansing, MI
Tip-off: Tuesday, 5:00 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan State -6.5, Total: 134

No. 12 Maryland has been the surprise of the college basketball season, and will play its first-ever Big Ten in a difficult environment at Michigan State.

Maryland (3-6 ATS, 4-3 OVER) had many players transfer during the offseason, but the team has had other guys step up and play some great basketball. Head coach Mark Turgeon has done a great job of getting his Maryland team ready to play on the road, as they are 13-5 ATS in road games after a non-conference game since he's taken over the program. The Terrapins' lone loss this season is to a Virginia team that is currently undefeated and ranked No. 3 in the nation. Like Maryland, Michigan State (8-5 ATS, 6-5 OVER) lost a lot talent from last season’s Elite Eight team, and it has taken a while for the Spartans to get things going. Tom Izzo’s team has played some very good teams this year (Kansas and Duke), but an overtime loss to Texas Southern exposed the struggles of the Spartans offense. But since 1997, Michigan State is 34-9 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. The Spartans should also have starting SF Branden Dawson (wrist) ready to start on Tuesday night.

Can Michigan State slow down red-hot Maryland on Tuesday? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks. The five experts are led by StatFox Gary's strong 66% ATS record (23-12), which includes a perfect 5-0 ATS mark since Dec. 23. StatFox Scott is also a perfect 5-0 ATS in Best Bets since Dec. 23, and StatFox Zach is 54% ATS (19-16) to open the season.

The Terrapins lost some talented scorers from last season's roster, but the balanced offensive attack has helped them rank 46th in the nation in shooting (47.6% from the field) and 53rd in scoring (74.8 PPG). If there is one thing that Maryland needs to improve on, it is sharing the ball, as the team ranks 229th in passing (11.9 APG). Defensively, the club limits opponents to 61.2 PPG (78th in nation) on 37.5% FG, but swipe only 4.9 steals per game (322nd in NCAA). PG Melo Trimble (15.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.1 APG) and SF Jake Layman (15.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 54% FG) are tied for the scoring lead on the team, and have helped the team in different ways. Trimble has had to step up as a freshman point guard, and he does done a nice job of not turning the ball over too much (2.6 TOPG). Layman has been consistently great all season with at least 12 points in all 13 games. He has also posted two straight double-doubles (18.0 PPG, 11.5 RPG). With SG Dez Wells (15.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 55% from threes) listed as probable for the game, Maryland is getting closer to a healthy team. Wells is a physical swingman who can do everything on the court. He is a terrific athlete who can be one of the top defensive players in college basketball, while also demanding the defense’s focus on that end. Maryland has shot the ball well from deep, hitting 37.8 % of its three-point attempts on the season. Coach Turgeon’s team has been just mediocre on the glass (122nd in the country, 36.7 RPG), and that could be a problem against a Tom Izzo-coached basketball team.

Despite some early season struggles, the Spartans rank very high in a lot of key offensive stats. Entering Tuesday’s game, Michigan State ranks fifth in the nation in assists (18.3 APG), 19th in shooting (49.3% from the field), 38th in rebounding (39.5 RPG) and 51st in scoring (75.0 PPG). On the defensive end, the club allows 60.2 PPG (54th in nation) on 37.8% FG. Like Maryland, the Spartans have had some injuries to their key swingman, SF Branden Dawson (10.8 PPG. 8.5 RPG and 1.4 SPG). But he is probable for the game, and his matchup against Wells could be of the utmost importance in this game. The leading scorer on the Spartans is SG Denzel Valentine (14.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.3 APG), who has changed his game from role player to the main scorer. With PG Travis Trice (12.9 PPG, 5.9 APG, 3.5 RPG) joining Valentine in the backcourt, the Spartans will have one of the most experienced guard combinations in the country. As good as Maryland is shooting from the outside, Michigan State is even better. The Spartans shoot 42.0% from the three-point line, which ranks third in the country. If Michigan State is able to get out and get some easy baskets, then the offensive numbers will improve.


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