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Durant to return Wednesday vs. Suns
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/31/2014  at  4:29:00 AM
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PHOENIX SUNS (18-15)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (15-17)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -7.5, Total: 213

The Thunder will likely get back the league's MVP when they host the surging Suns on Wednesday night.

Kevin Durant has missed the past six games with a sprain to his surgically-repaired foot, but he is expected to return for this New Year's Eve matchup. His presence will be key because Phoenix has been red-hot with six wins in its past seven games (SU and ATS), with all but one of those contests occurring on the road where the team is now 11-8 SU (11-7-1 ATS). Oklahoma City was just 3-3 SU (2-4 ATS) without Durant, and enters Friday with a mediocre 8-7 SU record at home, but is a stellar 11-4 ATS at Chesapeake Energy Arena. These teams met 17 days ago on Dec. 14 and it wasn't pretty, as the Thunder rolled to a 112-88 home victory, as they outshot their opponent 49% FG to 34% FG. That defeat marked the seventh straight road loss (3-4 ATS) for the Suns in this series, and dropped them to 2-12 SU overall (5-9 ATS) in the past 14 meetings. However, both of those victories have come in this calendar year on March 6 and April 6, and Phoenix is 60-30 ATS (67%) in the past two seasons versus teams who make at least six three-pointers per game. However, Oklahoma City is 23-7 ATS (77%) at home after a combined score of 215+ points in the past three seasons. With Durant expected back on the court, the only injury for either team in this game is Thunder PF Mitch McGary (tibia), who remains out indefinitely.

Will the return of Kevin Durant propel Oklahoma City to a sizable victory on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 57% ATS record (82-63-1) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, StatFox Gary is 59% ATS (13-9) since Nov. 29 to give him a 56% ATS (25-20) in NBA Best Bets this season, while StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (14-10) in Best Bets since Nov. 29.

Phoenix's offense has been potent all season with 105.7 PPG (5th in NBA), despite an average shooting percentage (45.8% FG, 15th in league), but the club has been strong from long range (37.1% threes, 8th in NBA). Defense is a different story though, as the Suns allow a robust 103.9 PPG (25th in league) on 45.6% FG (16th in NBA). The scoring has been very balanced, as five players average between 13.9 PPG and 16.7 PPG. The leading scorer is SG Goran Dragic (16.7 PPG, 4.1 APG, 3.2 RPG), who has netted 22+ points in three of his past four games where he's averaged 21.8 PPG on 54% FG (9-of-19 threes). Dragic did not play in the blowout loss to Oklahoma City earlier this month, so his presence will be key for Phoenix. Dragic is joined in the backcourt by PG Eric Bledsoe (16.2 PPG, 5.8 APG, 5.4 RPG, 1.5 SPG) who has also been on a scoring binge in the past six games with 19.8 PPG, while also grabbing 8.3 RPG during this timeframe despite standing just 6-foot-1. Bledsoe has also done a nice job of running the offense in the past four games with 28 assists and only 10 turnovers. But he'll have to shoot better than he did versus the Thunder on Dec. 14 when he finished with 12 points on 4-of-12 FG. Backup PG Isaiah Thomas (14.9 PPG, 3.9 APG) also struggled with his shot in that loss to Oklahoma City, making only 2-9 FG, including 0-for-3 threes. Thomas logs just 24.8 MPG this season, but owns the team's best Player Efficiency Rating of 20.0. PF Markieff Morris (14.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG) is the Suns' main frontcourt scorer, but he also had an off-night versus the Thunder with more fouls (five) than points (four). He'll need to stay out of foul trouble to help increase his current streak of three straight double-digit scoring games (14.0 PPG).

Oklahoma City has not been a good offensive team this season with an NBA-low 19.6 APG leading to a mere 98.0 PPG (21st in league). The club shoots just 44.4% FG (22nd in NBA), which includes a dreadful 32.4% threes (4th-worst in NBA). However, the Thunder also lead the NBA in scoring defense (96.1 PPG) and ranks second in the league in shooting defense (42.5% FG), three-point shooting defense (30.7% threes) and total rebounds (46.3 RPG). SF Kevin Durant (22.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.6 APG) has played only nine games this season, with the Thunder going 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS) in those contests. He did play against the Suns though, amassing 23 points (8-of-13 FG), eight rebounds and two steals in just 24 minutes of action. PG Russell Westbrook (28.0 PPG, 7.3 APG, 5.7 RPG, 2.3 SPG) has been phenomenal this season with at least 18 points in 16 straight games since returning from a broken hand that sidelined him for the majority of November. Westbrook dominated the Suns in many facets on Dec. 14, scoring 28 points (13-of-13 FT) with eight rebounds, eight assists and two steals in just 27 minutes of action. PG Reggie Jackson (15.9 PPG, 5.2 APG, 4.5 RPG) is the backup to Westbrook, but he averages a team-high 32.7 minutes per game. He did not play well in the win over Phoenix earlier this month (6 points, 3-of-10 FG, 0 assists, 3 turnovers), but he has scored 19+ points in four of the past six contests, including 21 points (10-of-17 FG) in Sunday's loss at Dallas. PF Serge Ibaka (14.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.3 BPG) kept his team in the game on Sunday with 26 points on 11-of-14 FG and 10 rebounds, but played only 19 minutes in the Suns blowout on Dec. 14, scoring 12 points with four boards in that limited action.


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