StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 8 MSU meets No. 5 Baylor in Cotton Bowl Thursday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 1/1/2015  at  5:03:00 AM
  Print This Article    

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (10-2)
vs. BAYLOR BEARS (11-1)

Cotton Bowl
AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX
Kickoff: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Line: Baylor -2.5, Total: 69.5

No. 8 Michigan State looks to grab its fourth consecutive bowl win as it takes on No. 5 Baylor in the Cotton Bowl on Thursday afternoon.

The Spartans remained one of the elite teams in college football as they won double-digit games for the fourth time in five years and earned a trip to a bowl game for the eighth straight season. They did so while going 8-4 ATS and were the favorites in all but one of their contests as they gave double-digit points nine times. The one game they were an underdog did not go so well, as they traveled to 14-point favorite Oregon and left with an embarrassing 46-27 loss. Even with the ease of its opponents, MSU should be feeling good entering this game after winning its past three contests by an average of 29.3 PPG with two of them being on the road. This program has been huge in bowl games of late and is a perfect 3-0 (both SU and ATS) over the past three seasons while playing in some high-profile contests against the likes of Stanford, TCU and Georgia. The Bears were also expected to easily win a majority of their contests while being the underdog in just one contest, but they were able to win that game, a 48-14 trouncing of Oklahoma as 5-point underdogs, while taking their one loss in a 41-27 game on the road at West Virginia. Since that time they have been on fire, as they have rattled off five consecutive victories (3-2 ATS) behind 48.6 PPG and turned the ball over a mere four times in those games. Overall they were 7-4-1 ATS as they needed to cover 20+ points in seven different games. Baylor absorbed a disappointing loss in last season’s Fiesta Bowl as a 17-point favorite against UCF, but just couldn’t keep up in a 52-42 finish. The Bears had won their previous two bowl game attempts (SU and ATS) while scoring 58.0 PPG and winning by an average of 16.0 PPG. Trends show that the Spartans are 7-0 ATS in road games off two straight wins against conference rivals in the past two seasons, while Baylor is a solid 25-12 ATS (68%) in all games over the past three years. Amazingly after a full season of hard-hitting football, these teams are pretty healthy. Michigan State could be without three questionable players in OL Travis Jackson (ankle), LB Jon Reschke (undisclosed) and DL James Kittredge (undisclosed), while the lone Bears injury is RB Devin Chafin (elbow), who is also questionable for Thursday.

Which school will cap off another excellent season with a Cotton Bowl victory? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 62% ATS mark (8-5) in College Football Best Bets since Nov. 20, while StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (11-8) in Best Bets since Nov. 12. Brian is a profitable 54% ATS (13-11) in all bowl picks, and StatFox Forecaster is a strong 63% ATS (15-9) in all bowl picks.

Michigan State had no trouble putting up gaudy offensive numbers in the regular season with 261.6 YPG through the air (40th in FBS) and 234.9 YPG on the ground (24th in FBS) as the team dropped 43.1 PPG (7th in nation) on their opponents. QB Connor Cook (2,900 pass yards, 22 TD, 6 INT) was huge for this program, as he threw for over 300 yards on three separate occasions while completing 58% of his passes for 9.0 YPA. He really turned it on at the end of the year though, as he threw six touchdowns and just one interception while averaging 251.8 YPG over the final five games. HB Jeremy Langford (1,360 rush yards, 19 TD) surpassed 100 yards in each of the final nine contests and was able to get into the end zone an amazing 15 times over his past six games. He was a workhorse for this club while averaging 20.8 attempts per game (5.5 YPC) as he rushed the ball at least 25 times in three of the past five contests. WR Tony Lippett (1,124 rec yards, 11 TD) was the top receiver in his senior year while hitting the century mark in yards six times on the year. He did falter a bit down the stretch though, when he averaged a mere 58.8 YPG in his final four games. The defense also showed up this season for the Spartans while limiting opponents to just 19.9 PPG (15th in FBS), giving up a mere 97.5 YPG to opposing rushers (3rd in FBS). The trio of DE Marcus Rush (7 sacks, 36 tackles), DE Shilique Calhoun (6.5 sacks, 37 tackles) and LB Ed Davis (6 sacks, 56 tackles) accounted for more than half of the team’s sacks and will be a nuisance all day in this one.

Baylor was one of the more impressive offenses in the nation as it scored the most points in FBS (48.8 PPG) behind 346.2 passing YPG (5th in nation) and 235.2 rushing YPG (23rd in FBS). QB Bryce Petty (3,305 pass yards, 26 TD, 6 INT) had 11 TDs and just three interceptions over the past six games and threw for more than 380 yards twice in that time. He had multiple TD passes in eight of his 11 games and also was able to get into the end zone five times using his legs. HB Shock Linwood (1,226 rush yards, 16 TD) had four games where he hit triple-digits in rushing while scoring in all but one contest. The sophomore averaged 5.1 YPC while running the ball 20 times per game, as five other runners had at least three touchdowns on the ground. There was not just one receiver that gave the opposition fits on this team, as WRs Corey Coleman (969 rec yards, 10 TD), KD Cannon (833 rec yards, 6 TD), Antwan Goodley (737 rec yards, 6 TD) and Jay Lee (596 rec yards, 6 TD) all had at least 39 catches and combined to average 15.9 yards per reception. The other side of the ball did its job as well, while giving up 24.2 PPG (39th in FBS) to its opponents behind a rush defense that allowed a low 107.7 YPG (10th in nation). LB Bryce Hager (101 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and DL Shawn Oakman (10 sacks, 48 tackles) will give the Spartans everything they can handle up front, while DBs Orion Stewart (71 tackles, 4 INT) and Xavien Howard (42 tackles, 4 INT, 1.5 sacks) are big playmakers in the secondary.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: