Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL
Kickoff: Thursday, Noon ET
Line: Auburn -6.5, Total: 63.5

No. 18 Wisconsin attempts to break a four-game bowl losing streak when it squares off against No. 19 Auburn at the Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day.

The Badgers certainly had a solid season, but it should have been expected, as they were the favorite in all but one of their contests. They did a poor job for bettors at 5-8 ATS while failing to cover in each of their final three games. Wisconsin had rattled off eight consecutive victories by an average of 19.6 PPG to earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship against Ohio State. That conference title game likely propelled the Buckeyes to a spot in the playoffs as they embarrassed the Badgers by a score of 59-0 while Wisconsin was the 4-point favorite. This program hopes that it can redeem itself in postseason play with a win, but has failed to come away with a victory in each of the past four bowl games (1-3 ATS) while losing by an average of 6.3 PPG. The Tigers had a tremendous start to the regular season, as they won their first five games SU (3-2 ATS) while being at least 6.5-point favorites each time. Since then, they are a mere 3-4 SU (1-6 ATS) as they took on some of the tougher teams in the SEC and earned just one win while being considered the underdog. The difference during that poor stretch was turnovers, as they gave up the ball a total of 12 times in the four losses compared to just eight times in their victories. Auburn has been able to get three bowl wins in the past four seasons while going 3-1 ATS, but could not get a win in the BCS Championship last year as it lost by a heart-breaking score of 34-31 while getting 11.5 points against Florida State. These programs last met in the 2006 Citrus Bowl and it was Wisconsin that proved to be the better team with a 24-10 win as a 10-point underdog while it outgained the Tigers 548-236. Some trends to keep an eye on for Thursday include that the Badgers are 16-4 ATS (80%) after being outrushed by 125+ yards since 1992, while Auburn is 9-1 ATS (90%) in the past two seasons after scoring 42+ points. The Tigers will be without top WR D’haquille Williams (suspension), while DL DaVonte Lambert (knee) is doubtful and DL Jeffrey Whitaker (back) is considered questionable. For Wisconsin, top RB Melvin Gordon is expected to play through an illness, and C Dan Voltz (ankle) is also probable. But teammates DL Konrad Zagzebski (knee) is doubtful, while LB Leon Jacobs (lower body) and OL Ray Ball (leg) are both questionable for Thursday.

Can Wisconsin pick up a long-awaited bowl win on Thursday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 62% ATS mark (8-5) in College Football Best Bets since Nov. 20, while StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (11-8) in Best Bets since Nov. 12. Brian is a profitable 54% ATS (13-11) in all bowl picks, and StatFox Forecaster is a strong 63% ATS (15-9) in all bowl picks.

Wisconsin is well known for its amazing ability to run the football and the team ranked fourth in the nation this season with 314 YPG on the ground, and added 150.8 passing YPG (118th in FBS), as they scored 34.6 PPG (30th in FBS). QB Joel Stave (1,229 pass yards, 8 TD, 7 INT) is expected to be more of a game manager in this offense, but did not do so well in the regular season finale when he was a mere 17-for-43 (40%) with 187 yards, 0 TD and 3 INT against Ohio State. Previous to that though, he had completed at least 61% of his passes while throwing 5 TD to just 1 INT in four games. HB Melvin Gordon (2,336 rush yards, 26 TD) was the stud on this team after leading the nation in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns while averaging 7.6 YPC. He had at least 100 rushing yards 11 times and was able to top 200 yards in five of his performances. Behind him, HB Corey Clement (844 rush yards, 9 TD) was also solid with three 100-yard games as he ran for 6.4 YPC. WR Alex Erickson (734 rec yards, 3 TD) was the top receiver for this group, and he actually had three games of more than 100 yards despite this being such a run-oriented offensive team. The Badgers defense is often overlooked, but shouldn’t be, as they allowed only 20.0 PPG (16th in FBS) to their opposition while letting them run for only 118.9 YPG (17th in FBS). The duo of LBs Derek Landisch (8 sacks, 76 tackles, 1 INT) and Vince Biegel (7.5 sacks, 55 tackles) will look to be in the backfield all game and stuff anything the Tigers throw at them.

Auburn’s main weapon was its ground game that churned out 258.5 rushing YPG (12th in FBS) while getting 230.7 passing YPG (65th in nation) and scored 35.8 PPG (24th in FBS). QB Nick Marshall (2,315 pass yards, 18 TD, 7 INT) finished the year off with a bang, as he completed 27-of-43 passes (63%) for a season-high 456 yards and 3 TD (1 INT) in the loss to Alabama. His biggest asset to the team was his legs though, as he totaled 780 yards on the ground (5.3 YPC), including 100+ yards on four occasions, while finding the end zone 11 times. Joining him in the backfield is HB Cameron Artis-Payne (1,482 rush yards, 11 TD) who rushed for triple-digits in 8-of-12 performances while scoring six touchdowns in the final six games. He had at least 20 attempts in all but two contests on the year, as he averaged 5.4 YPC. The suspension of WR D’haquille Williams (730 yards, 5 TDs) will leave WR Sammie Coates (717 rec yards, 4 TD) as the No. 1 target for Marshall. Coates is coming off a huge performance against Alabama when he caught five passes for 206 yards and 2 TD. The Tigers defense is what held them back this season, as they surrendered 26.1 PPG while doing fairly well against the run (149.5 YPG, 44th in FBS). There are tons of playmakers on this team with DBs Jonathan Ford (3 INT, 84 tackles), Jonathan Jones (6 INT, 34 tackles), Jermaine Whitehead (4 INT, 28 tackles, 1 TD) and LB Cassanova McKinzy (82 tackles, 10 TFL, 1 INT) all having the ability to be game-changers.