Citrus Bowl
Citrus Bowl Stadium - Orlando, FL
Kickoff: Thursday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Missouri -4.5, Total: 47

No. 25 Minnesota tries to win its first bowl since 2004 when it meets No. 16 Missouri in Thursday's Citrus Bowl in Orlando.

The Gophers have dropped three of their past five games SU, but are on a four-game ATS win streak, in large part because of a +6 turnover margin during that span. This is a good sign for betters, as they are 20-8 ATS (71%) in non-home games after 2+ straight ATS wins since 1992. Expect Minnesota to continue relying heavily on its running game after attempting 30 passes in a game only once all season. The Tigers had a six-game SU winning streak snapped in a conference title game loss to Alabama when they allowed 504 yards of offense to the Tide, the first time they’d given up 400+ yards since September. In that early-season game, star DE Shane Ray was ejected for targeting in the first half, and they wound up losing a stunner to Indiana, at home. But bettors have been able to cash in after a big Missouri defeat, as the team is 17-3 ATS (85%) after a loss by 17+ points under Gary Pinkel. While Missouri has won two straight bowl games, including an impressive 41-31 win over 3-point favorite Oklahoma State last season, the Gophers have dropped six straight bowls. Most of their postseason defeats have been heartbreakers though, with five of those six losses coming by four points or less. While Minnesota is virtually injury-free, the Tigers expect to be without both WR Jimmie Hunt (shoulder) and DB Cortland Browning (foot), while TE Kendall Blanton (elbow) is questionable.

Can Minnesota end its long bowl-win drought on Thursday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 62% ATS mark (8-5) in College Football Best Bets since Nov. 20, while StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (11-8) in Best Bets since Nov. 12. Brian is a profitable 54% ATS (13-11) in all bowl picks, and StatFox Forecaster is a strong 63% ATS (15-9) in all bowl picks.

Minnesota loves to run the football, gaining 224.6 rushing YPG (27th in nation), but the team lacks great balance with only 131.4 passing YPG (123rd in FBS), leading to a pedestrian 29.3 PPG (61st in nation). The strong ground game limits turnovers (8 giveaways in past 8 games) and leads to 31:32 in time of possession. Senior RB David Cobb (1,545 rush yards, 5.3 YPC, 13 TD) is the focal point of the offense, carrying the football at least 14 times in every game this season, including four games of 30+ rushing attempts. That has led to seven performances of more than 115 rushing yards, and Cobb has found the end zone at least once in six straight contests, tallying 9 TD during this streak. QB Mitch Leidner (1,540 pass yards, 7.5 YPA, 10 TD, 8 INT) isn't much of a passer, evidenced by a 49.0% completion rate, but he is very valuable with his legs, running for 462 yards (3.9 YPC) and 10 touchdowns. When he does drop back to pass, the throws usually go to TE Maxx Williams (471 rec yards, 7 TD), who is the only Gophers player with at least 300 receiving yards this season. Defensively, Minnesota allows only 23.4 PPG (32nd in nation) by limiting teams to 363 total YPG on 5.3 yards per play. The Gophers allow 161 rushing YPG on 4.5 YPC and 201 passing YPG on 6.2 YPA.

Missouri also prefers to keep the football on the ground with 165.6 YPG (60th in nation), rather than take to the air (196.2 YPG, 97th in FBS), but the club scores only 27.4 PPG (77th in nation). The rushing attack is handled mostly by talented RBs Russell Hansbrough (970 rush yards, 5.1 YPC, 9 TD) and Marcus Murphy (767 rush yards, 4.6 YPC, 4 TD). Hansbrough has been inconsistent this season though, producing three games of more than 115 rushing yards, but failing to reach 50 rushing yards on six other occasions. QB Maty Mauk (2,551 pass yards, 6.5 YPA, 23 TD, 11 INT) is not a very accurate passer (52.9% completion rate), but he's also a quality ball carrier with 335 yards on 97 carries (3.5 YPC) and a touchdown. When Mauk does decide to throw the football, WR Bud Sasser (935 rec yards, 10 TD) is usually the first option he looks for. No. 2 WR Jimmie Hunt (698 rec yards, 7 TD) is doubtful for Thursday, which will allow WR Darius White (374 rec yards, 4 TD) to see more action. Missouri has done a great job of protecting the football recently with only five giveaways in the past seven games combined. The Tigers defense is very strong, limiting opponents to just 21.4 PPG (24th in nation). The run-stop unit is especially fierce, allowing only 136 rushing YPG on 3.5 YPC, while the passing defense hasn't been as good, surrendering 209 passing YPG on 6.1 YPA.