Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX
Kickoff: Friday, Noon ET
Line: Pittsburgh -3, Total: 53

After sneaking into bowl eligibility, Pittsburgh attempts to get a victory in the postseason for the second straight year when it faces Houston in Friday's Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, TX.

The Cougars were all over the map with their play this season, and after starting the year with a 2-3 record (SU and ATS), they managed to finish 5-2 SU (4-2-1 ATS) for the remainder of the 2014 campaign. This included a strong 28-24 victory as 7.5-point underdogs against Memphis to kick off that stretch, and they had one or fewer turnovers in five of the seven contests. The Houston offense was clicking over the final three games as it averaged 34.7 PPG and nearly pulled off a victory against Cincinnati as 7-point underdogs in the final game, but just couldn’t hold off the talented Bearcats in a 38-31 defeat. This program is hoping to redeem itself after an embarrassing loss at last season’s PapaJohns.com Bowl where Vanderbilt won 41-24 as a 1.5-point favorite. The Panthers looked on the way to another successful season as they defeated their first three opponents by an average of 29.7 PPG while going 2-1 ATS, but then fell into a stretch where they were a horrendous 1-6 SU (2-5 ATS) while absorbing four losses when considered the favorite. They were able to get win the final two games of the regular season to become bowl eligible, including an impressive victory as big 11-point underdogs when they traveled to Miami and took down the Hurricanes by a score of 35-23 to cap it all off. The inability of Pittsburgh's defense to get big plays really made it tough to get any momentum going, as it forced one fewer turnovers in nine of the final 10 games. The Panthers also played in a bowl named after pizza last season, but unlike their Friday opponent, were able to get a 30-27 win as 6.5-point underdogs against Bowling Green in the Little Caesars Bowl. Some trends to keep an eye on in this one include that Pittsburgh is a putrid 0-6 ATS after covering the spread in two of its previous three games over the past two seasons while Houston is just 16-31 ATS (34%) in non-home games after gaining 325+ passing yards in the previous game since 1992. There are no significant injuries for either school in this game.

Which school will capture the Armed Forces Bowl? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 69% ATS mark (11-5) in College Football Best Bets since Nov. 20, including 63% ATS (5-3) in bowl game Best Bets. StatFox Brian is 62% ATS (13-8) in Best Bets since Nov. 12, including 71% ATS (5-2) in bowl game Best Bets. Brian is a strong 56% ATS (18-14) in all bowl picks, while StatFox Forecaster is a stellar 61% ATS (19-12) in all bowl picks, while StatFox Scott is 67% ATS (4-2) in bowl game Best Bets.

Houston put up a solid offensive effort this year as it scored 29.3 PPG (61st in nation) behind 181.5 rushing YPG (49th in FBS) and 226.6 passing YPG (70th in nation). QB Greg Ward Jr. (1,736 pass yards, 9 TD, 7 INT) took over the starting job in the fifth game and had three contests of 250+ passing yards while completing 68% of his throws for 7.3 YPA. His biggest asset was his ability to make plays with his legs, and he finished the year with 481 yards (4.6 YPC) and six touchdowns on the ground. Joining Ward in the backfield most often was HB Kenneth Farrow (934 rush yards, 12 TD) who topped 100 rushing yards in six games as he averaged 121.3 YPG over the final three contests. He was also a touchdown machine in those three games while getting into the end zone seven times as he averaged 6.3 YPC. The top wideout for this team, WR Deontay Greenberry (756 rec yards, 4 TD), was more of a possession receiver, as he gained only 11.1 yards per catch, but was still able to get over 100 yards in two of his past four contests. The defensive unit was very impressive for this team as it held opponents to just 19.5 PPG (12th in nation) while ranking 19th in FBS in total defense (334.6 YPG). The leadership of LB Efrem Oliphant (129 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT) will be a major factor in this game while the unit hopes that DB Adrian McDonald (5 INT, 66 tackles, 5 INT) can make some big plays in the secondary.

The Panthers made up for their inability to get it done through the air (182.9 YPG, 105th in nation) with a strong rushing offense that went for 251.3 YPG (15th in FBS) as they scored 31.7 PPG (48th in nation). QB Chad Voytik (2,011 pass yards, 15 TD, 7 INT) averaged 194.0 passing YPG with 6 TD and just 1 INT over the past five games, while completing 63% of his passes for 8.0 YPA on the year. He was able to get it done rushing the ball too, with a pair of 100-yard performances on the ground while totaling 426 yards (4.2 YPC) and three touchdowns. HB James Conner (1,675 rush yards, 24 TD) was certainly the driving force behind this team’s success as he gained 6.0 YPC while topping 100 yards seven times. A majority of his touchdowns came towards the end of the year, as he got into the end zone 15 times in the final six games while also getting at least 220 yards twice in that time. WR Tyler Boyd (69 rec, 1,149 yards, 8 TD) also put up some impressive numbers in this offense while accounting for 41% of the team’s receptions and half of its receiving touchdowns. He bested 125 yards in four of his final five games while scoring in each of his final three regular-season contests. The defense gave up a mediocre 25.6 PPG (52nd in FBS) to its opponents over the course of the season, but allowed a mere 192.7 passing YPG (19th in nation). It will be senior LBs Anthony Gonzalez (74 tackles, 1 sack) and Todd Thomas (71 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 1 INT) who are expected to lead this unit to a successful performance on Friday.