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No. 14 UCLA collides with No. 11 KSU Friday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox
Published: 1/2/2015  at  6:17:00 AM
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UCLA BRUINS (9-3)
vs. KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (9-3)

Alamo Bowl
Alamo Dome - San Antonio, TX
Kickoff: Friday, 6:45 p.m. ET
Line: UCLA -1.5, Total: 60

No. 14 UCLA and No. 11 Kansas State go head-to-head in Friday's Alamo Bowl as they each try to get a second straight postseason victory.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

The Bruins were a fun team to watch this season and were highly regarded as favorites in all but one of their games. When giving points, they are a poor 4-7 ATS while losing outright to both Utah and Stanford. Their loss to the Cardinal was a big one, as they had a chance to make it into the Pac-12 championship with a win, but suffered a 31-10 loss as they failed to gain more than 400 yards of offense for the first time since their season opener. This UCLA program took on Virginia Tech in the Sun Bowl as a 7-point favorite last season and came away with a big 42-12 victory after losing in its previous two bowl game attempts by an average of 14.5 PPG. Kansas State was impressive on the year when considered the underdog, as it won two games outright when getting points (Oklahoma and West Virginia) with both games coming on the road. The Wildcats finished off the year against a very tough team in Baylor and suffered a 38-27 loss as 7-point underdogs while being the first team all year to hold the Bears under 40 points. Kansas State was also able to win each of its contests as favorites and was great overall with ball security as it turned over the pigskin just 0.9 times per game. In last season’s Insight Bowl, the team grabbed a 31-14 victory as a 7-point favorite against Michigan after losing its previous three postseason games (both SU and ATS) by an average of 11.0 PPG. These schools played in back-to-back seasons (2009 and 2010) with each team getting a win at home (SU and ATS) in that time as the Wildcats won their most recent meeting by a score of 31-22 as 1-point favorites while passing for 313 yards. Some trends to watch in this bowl game include that the Bruins are 6-1 ATS (86%) after a bye week in the past three seasons, while the Wildcats have gone 10-1 ATS (91%) off one or more consecutive Unders in the past two seasons. The status of QB Brett Hundley (finger) is most important in terms of the outcome of the game for UCLA, but he has been upgraded to probable. FB Nate Iese (shoulder) is questionable for Friday. For Kansas State, both FS Dylan Schellenberg (leg) and DL Travis Britz (ankle) are doubtful for this contest.

Which school will earn its 10th win of the season on Friday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 69% ATS mark (11-5) in College Football Best Bets since Nov. 20, including 63% ATS (5-3) in bowl game Best Bets. StatFox Brian is 62% ATS (13-8) in Best Bets since Nov. 12, including 71% ATS (5-2) in bowl game Best Bets. Brian is a strong 56% ATS (18-14) in all bowl picks, while StatFox Forecaster is a stellar 61% ATS (19-12) in all bowl picks, while StatFox Scott is 67% ATS (4-2) in bowl game Best Bets.

UCLA had one of the more dynamic offenses in the nation, as they managed to compile 268.5 YPG through the air (35th in FBS) and 199.4 YPG on the ground (39th in nation) while scoring 32.9 PPG (39th in FBS). QB Brett Hundley (3,019 pass yards, 21 TD, 5 INT) had more than 300 yards in five games on the year, including two of the final three, and was also great with ball security as he threw eight touchdowns to just one interception over the final five contests. He doesn’t always run, but when he does, the results are outstanding. Hundley eclipsed 100 rushing yards twice and totaled 548 rushing yards (3.7 YPC) with eight scores for the season. HB Paul Perkins (1,378 rush yards, 7 TD) hit the century mark in yards on five occasions while averaging 6.0 YPC. He proved he can get it done against one of the toughest rushing defenses in FBS when he rumbled for 116 yards on 17 carries (6.8 YPC) against Stanford in the season finale. WR Jordan Payton (896 rec yards, 7 TD) had three games of 100+ receiving yards on the year, but averaged a mere 37.7 YPG over his final three games of the regular season. The Bruins defense struggled in the tough Pac-12, allowing 27.5 PPG (73rd in nation) while poorly defending the pass (243.3 YPG allowed). They will look towards the leadership of LB Eric Kendricks (135 tackles, 3 INT, 2 sacks, 1 TD), the 2014 Dick Butkus Award winner, who will be playing his last game with the team.

The Kansas State offense racked up 35.8 PPG this year (24th in FBS) while passing the ball for 283.2 YPG (20th in nation) and running it for 142.8 YPG (94th in FBS). QB Jake Waters (3,163 pass yards, 20 TD, 6 INT) turned it up at the right time, as he averaged 331.3 passing YPG with a 7 TD and 2 INT over the final three games. He had both of his 300-yard efforts in that time, and was always able to run the ball with 471 yards (3.4 YPC) and eight touchdowns on the ground during the year. Joining Waters in the backfield is RB Charles Jones (521 rush yards, 13 TD) who never ran for more than 75 yards in any one game, and had just five touchdowns in the final eight contests after posting eight scores in the first four. WR Tyler Lockett (1,351 rec yards, 9 TD) was the top option in the passing game, as he averaged 167.3 YPG in the final four contests. On the other side of the field, WR Curry Sexton (955 rec yards, 5 TD) was also tremendous while averaging 13.8 yards per catch and hitting triple-digits in yards five times. The Wildcats defense also did well in holding opponents to 21.8 PPG (24th in FBS) while doing very well against the rush (124.4 YPG, 24th in FBS). Senior LB Jonathan Truman (114 tackles, 3.5 TFL) will be expected to lead this unit to a win on Friday night.


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