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Thunder favored big over Wizards on Friday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/2/2015  at  5:15:00 AM
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WASHINGTON WIZARDS (22-9)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (16-17)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -7.5, Total: 204.5

Two surging teams will look to begin the 2015 calendar year on the right foot when the Thunder host the Wizards.

Washington ended its December on a 9-3 SU run (5-7 ATS), but is still licking its wounds after a 114-87 pounding at Dallas in its last game on Tuesday. The club's five-game road trip continues on Friday versus a now-healthy Oklahoma City team that has won three of its past four contests (2-2 ATS). This includes a 137-134 overtime victory on Wednesday when SF Kevin Durant (knee) returned to the lineup after a six-game absence and exploded for 44 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. The home team has won the past five meetings between these clubs, but last season's game at Chesapeake Energy Arena was a 106-105 thriller won by the Thunder. Although the Wizards were crushed in their last game, road underdogs coming off a loss by 20+ points facing an opponent after a combined score of 215+ points in two straight games are 45-15 ATS (75%) since 1996. But Oklahoma City is 23-8 ATS (74%) at home after a combined score of 215+ points in the past three seasons. The Wizards could be missing two key players on Friday, as both SG Bradley Beal (toe) and PF Nene Hilario (ankle) are questionable to play. The Thunder continue to miss PF Mitch McGary (tibia), who remains out indefinitely.

Can the Thunder win comfortably on Friday night versus an excellent Wizards squad? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 55% ATS record (82-68-1) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, StatFox Gary is 56% ATS (14-11) since Nov. 29 to give him a 54% ATS (26-22) mark in NBA Best Bets this season, while StatFox Brian is 60% ATS (15-10) in Best Bets since Nov. 29 to improve to 53% ATS (25-22) in NBA Best Bets for the season. Since Dec. 18, StatFox Scott is 60% ATS (6-4) in Best Bets

Washington averages only 100.2 PPG on offense (18th in NBA), but shoots an excellent 47.1% FG (3rd in league) and an NBA-best 39.1% threes, thanks in large part to an unselfish 24.9 APG (4th in league). This is also an excellent defensive squad that allows only 97.4 PPG (6th in NBA) on 44.0% FG (6th in league) and 34.3% threes (9th in NBA). PG John Wall (17.4 PPG, 10.3 APG, 4.6 RPG, 2.1 SPG) has been outstanding this season, but with second-leading scorer SG Bradley Beal (15.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.6 SPG, 46% threes) questionable, Wall might have to assume a larger scoring workload. He has averaged only 12.0 PPG in the past three contests, and the Thunder are a great defensive team. If Wall can't get back on track offensively, he will feed veteran SF Paul Pierce (13.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG) who averaged 19.0 PPG on 72% FG (4-of-8 threes) during the team's two-game win streak before struggling on Tuesday with just nine points (2-of-6 FG) and four turnovers. C Marcin Gortat (12.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 53% FG) hasn't surpassed 10 points in four straight games, but should be well-rested after playing only 21 minutes in Tuesday's blowout loss.

Oklahoma City has not been a good offensive team this season with an NBA-low 19.7 APG leading to a mere 99.2 PPG (21st in league). The club shoots just 44.3% FG (22nd in NBA), which includes a dreadful 32.4% threes (5th-worst in NBA). However, the Thunder rank fourth in the NBA in scoring defense (97.2 PPG), and rank second in the league in shooting defense (42.7% FG), third in three-point shooting defense (31.3% threes) and second in total rebounds (46.3 RPG). SF Kevin Durant (24.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.9 APG) has played only 10 games this season, with the Thunder going 8-2 SU (5-5 ATS) in those contests. He is shooting 54% from the floor and 44% from three-point range this season, which are numbers considerably better than his career averages of 48% FG and 38% threes. PG Russell Westbrook (27.6 PPG, 7.2 APG, 5.6 RPG, 2.3 SPG) has been phenomenal this season with at least 18 points in 17 straight games since returning from a broken hand that sidelined him for the majority of November. Although he was ejected on Wednesday after picking up a second technical foul, he still scored 20 points with four rebounds and four assists in only 17 minutes of action. PG Reggie Jackson (15.7 PPG, 5.1 APG, 4.4 RPG) is the backup to Westbrook, but he averages a team-high 32.9 minutes per game. Although he is scoring a career high in points, his shooting percentages (42% FG, 25% threes) are the worst they have been since his rookie season. In Wednesday's overtime victory, he made only 4-of-18 shots (0-for-8 threes). PF Serge Ibaka (14.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.3 BPG) has played very well in his past five games with 18.2 PPG on 52% FG and 58% threes (14-of-24) with 9.4 RPG and 2.0 BPG. But his quickness could be too much for Marcin Gortat to handle inside.


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