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Bell-less Steelers host Ravens on Saturday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/3/2015  at  5:08:00 AM
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BALTIMORE RAVENS (10-6)
at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (11-5)

AFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: Pittsburgh -3, Total: 45

Division rivals clash in the opening round of the AFC playoffs when the Ravens visit the Steelers on Saturday night. Pittsburgh will be missing its offensive MVP, as Le'Veon Bell (knee) was ruled out for this matchup.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Baltimore snuck into the AFC playoffs with a 20-10 victory at home over the Browns paired with a Chargers loss to the Chiefs in Week 17. The Ravens have now won three of their past four games SU, but they’ve failed to cover the spread in three straight contests. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, beat the Bengals 27-17 as a 3-point home favorite in a division-deciding matchup last week, and have now won-and-covered in four straight games. Both of these teams won-and-covered when facing each other at home this season, and over the past three years, these teams have split wins SU, but the Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in those meetings. Pittsburgh has won-and-covered in two straight home games against Baltimore, and is now 7-3 SU (5-3-2 ATS) in its past 10 home games in this head-to-head series. Although the Steelers are only 1-5 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games over the past three seasons, they are 32-16 ATS after gaining 300+ passing yards in their previous game since 1992. The Ravens, meanwhile, are an impressive 6-1 ATS in the Wild Card round of the playoffs since 1992. Both teams have some significant injuries, as Baltimore has four players considered questionable -- DT Timmy Jernigan (foot), LB Arthur Brown (thigh), DE Chris Canty (ankle) and OT Eugene Monroe (ankle). However, star NT Haloti Ngata will play after serving a suspension. In addition to losing top RB Le'Veon Bell (knee), Pittsburgh could be missing top CB Ike Taylor (knee) and NT Steve McLendon (shoulder). The good news is that S Troy Polamalu (knee) has been upgraded to probable.

Which AFC North foe will win this bitter rivalry and move onto the next round of playoffs? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. StatFox Gary is a stellar 67% ATS (22-11-1) in Best Bets since Week 9, while StatFox Scott is 54% ATS (33-28-2) in Best Bets since Week 3. StatFox Brian is 57% ATS (8-6) in NFL Best Bets over the past four weeks. In last year's postseason, the four experts combined for a 17-6-2 Best Bets record (74%), going 91% (10-1) in Totals and 58% ATS (7-5-2) in Best Bet picks.

The Ravens won a big game against the Browns on Sunday and got the help they needed from the Chiefs in order to make it to the postseason. QB Joe Flacco (3,986 pass yards, 27 TD, 12 INT) came up huge for his team, throwing for 312 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in the victory. Flacco has thrown for four touchdowns and just one interception in two meetings with the Steelers this season, and will need to continue to take care of the football if the Ravens are going to advance. Flacco is 9-4 in his playoff career, and has won at least one game in all five postseasons he has been a part of, but half of those four defeats have come at Pittsburgh (2008 and 2010) where he combined for just 1 TD and 4 INT. WR Torrey Smith (49 rec, 767 yards, 11 TD) caught four passes for 83 yards and a touchdown against Cleveland on Sunday. He’s now caught three touchdowns over the past two weeks and will be counted on to make plays against Pittsburgh on Saturday. RB Justin Forsett (1,266 rush yards, 8 TD) rushed for 119 yards on just 17 carries in Week 17. He’s been extremely reliable all season for the Ravens and will need to run the ball effectively against a miserable Steelers rushing defense on Saturday. The last time these teams played, Forsett rushed nine times for 38 yards and added five catches for 67 yards as well. If the Ravens can run the ball well, their sixth-ranked scoring defense should give them a great chance to advance.

The Steelers won the AFC North with a victory over the Bengals on Sunday and they’ll now take on the familiar Ravens. QB Ben Roethlisberger (4,952 pass yards, 32 TD, 9 INT) had the best season of his entire career this season, and came up big in the win on Sunday night when he threw for 317 yards with 2 TD and just 1 INT. The last time the Steelers faced the Ravens, Roethlisberger threw for 340 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’ll be locked in for this one and should be really difficult to stop after picking apart this defense in their last meeting. WR Antonio Brown (129 rec, 1,698 yards, 13 TD) also had a career year this season. Brown caught seven passes for 128 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals on Sunday and should be able to find plenty of room to work with against the Ravens. In two games against the Ravens this year, Brown caught 18 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown. He’ll be Roethlisberger’s top target in this game, as he has been all season. One major area for concern for Pittsburgh is the absence of RB Le’Veon Bell (1,361 rush yards, 8 TD). Bell hyperextended his right knee against Cincinnati and will not play against the Ravens on Saturday. The Steelers expect to give most of the carries to recently signed RB Ben Tate, who averaged a miserable 3.1 yards per carry on 119 attempts between the Browns and Vikings this year.


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