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Arkansas State faces Toledo on Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/4/2015  at  4:49:00 AM
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TOLEDO ROCKETS (8-4)
vs. ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES (7-5)

GoDaddy.com Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium - Mobile, AL
Kickoff: Sunday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Toledo -3.5, Total: 68

Arkansas State will once again close out its season in Mobile, AL when it faces Toledo in Sunday's GoDaddy.com Bowl.

This will be the Red Wolves' fourth straight trip to the GoDaddy.com Bowl, as they are 2-1 (SU and ATS) in Mobile. Arkansas State QB Fredi Knighten leads a high-powered offense that averaged 44.0 PPG and 518.7 YPG over its final seven regular-season games. The Rockets finished their regular season on a high note, winning two straight and four of five SU, including a 27-20 win over MAC East champion Bowling Green. Their offense was held below 400 yards in a game just once this season. Sophomore RB Kareem Hunt rushed for 100+ yards in all nine of his games, including 148 rushing yards and three touchdowns against SEC East champion Missouri. Although the Red Wolves are a miserable 0-11 ATS after gaining 300+ rushing yards in their previous game since 1992, they are also 7-0 ATS on the road versus good offenses (5.9+ yards per play) over the past three years. Each team has only one injury of concern, as Toledo DB Jordan Haden (abdominal) is expected to miss Sunday's game, while Arkansas State DB Charleston Girley (wrist) has been upgraded to probable.

Can Arkansas State win again in Mobile, AL? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 bowl season. StatFox Dave is heating up with a 69% ATS mark (11-5) in College Football Best Bets since Nov. 20, including 63% ATS (5-3) in bowl game Best Bets. StatFox Brian is 59% ATS (13-9) in Best Bets since Nov. 12, including 63% ATS (5-3) in bowl game Best Bets. StatFox Forecaster is a strong 56% ATS (20-16) in all bowl picks, Dave is a profitable 54% ATS (20-17) in all bowl picks, and StatFox Scott is 67% ATS (4-2) in bowl game Best Bets.

Toledo is a top-notch rushing team with 247.3 YPG (17th in nation), but it also throws the ball adequately with 239.8 YPG (56th in FBS), leading to 34.4 PPG (30th in nation). QB Logan Woodside (2,096 pass yards, 7.8 YPA, 19 TD, 7 INT) has been up and down this season, but he was phenomenal in the regular-season finale at Eastern Michigan when he completed 14-of-18 passes for 323 yards (17.9 YPA), 5 TD and 0 INT. Only two Rockets players have at least 300 receiving yards this season, WRs Corey Jones (821 rec yards, 5 TD) and Alonzo Russell (721 rec yards, 8 TD). Jones has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in four of his past eight games, but Russell has topped 55 yards just once in the past seven contests, when he gained 93 yards on just two catches at EMU. But this offense revolves around RB Kareem Hunt (1,360 rush yards, 7.9 YPC, 11 TD) who has caught only eight passes all season, but has rushed for an average of 151.1 yards per game. Hunt has carried the football 52 times in his past two contests and will likely get another monster workload to close out the season. The Rockets have allowed 29.3 PPG this season (86th in FBS), due mostly to their horrible pass defense allowing 284 YPG on 7.6 YPA. But Toledo knows how to stuff the run, holding opponents to 120 rushing YPG on 3.6 YPC.

Arkansas State is also a strong rushing team with 229.0 YPG (24th in FBS), while also passing for a respectable 248.2 YPG (51st in nation), leading to 36.1 PPG (22nd in FBS). RB Michael Gordon (1,064 rush yards, 7.1 YPC, 13 TD in 10 games) is the main ball carrier with five 100-yard rushing efforts in the past eight games. But dual-threat QB Fredi Knighten (2,874 pass yards, 7.2 YPA, 19 TD, 7 INT) has totaled multiple touchdowns in seven of his past eight games. He has rushed for 774 yards (4.0 YPC) and 11 TD this season, including a season-high 153 rushing yards and 2 TD in the team's most recent game, a 68-35 blowout win over New Mexico State. When Knighten looks to pass, he most often targets a trio of WRs Dijon Paschal (642 rec yards, 4 TD), Tres Houston (607 rec yards, 3 TD) and J.D. McKissic (530 rec yards, 0 TD). The freshman Paschal started his career slowly with only 19.5 receiving YPG in his first four games, but has averaged an impressive 70.5 receiving YPG in his past eight contests. Defensively, the Red Wolves are subpar, allowing 27.7 PPG (77th in nation), and aren't particular strong defending either method of offense, allowing 192 rushing YPG (4.5 YPC) and 219 passing YPG (6.9 YPA) this season.


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