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Florida hosts UConn in Final Four rematch Saturday
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Published: 1/3/2015  at  4:35:00 AM
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CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (6-5)

at FLORIDA GATORS (7-5)

Stephen C. O'Connell Center - Gainesville, FL
Tip-off: Saturday, 2:00 p.m. ET
Line: Florida -9.5, Total: 118

Florida hosts Connecticut on Saturday in a rematch of a Final Four game last season.

Both of these teams lost a lot of talent from last season’s team, and are in rebuilding modes. The Huskies (3-5 ATS) are the defending national champions, but are having some major problems right now. The offense has been especially bad for UConn who averages only 68.0 PPG, and has scored more than 80 points in only three games this season, going 3-0 SU (1-0 ATS) in those contests. In the last game against Temple on Wednesday, the team shot only 38.6% FG and fell 57-53 in overtime at home to the 7-point underdog Owls. The Huskies had to play nearly all of the second half without star PG Ryan Boatright, who is suffering from a thigh injury and is doubtful to return on Saturday. But this is a tough team to beat after a conference loss, as the school is 12-3 ATS (80%) in this scenario under head coach Kevin Ollie. The Gators (3-6 ATS) are starting to play a lot better basketball with four wins in the past five contests, but will be looking to bounce back from a very tough loss to in-state rival Florida State. In that contest, Florida SF Jacob Kurtz inadvertently tipped the ball into Florida State’s basket at the final buzzer to lose the game. The school has suffered two straight ATS defeats, but that is a good sign, as it is 65-38 ATS (63%) after failing to cover the spread in 2+ straight games since Billy Donovan became the head coach. Right now, the Gators are getting healthy, and once again figure to be a team to look out for in the SEC. PG Eli Carter (ankle) should be able to play in this key matchup. These schools actually met twice last season, with UConn winning 65-64 at home on a buzzer-beater, followed by the 63-53 upset of the top-seeded Gators in the national semifinal, a game where the Huskies outshot their opponents 56% FG to 39% FG.

Will Florida avenge last season's losses to Connecticut? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have caught fire since Dec. 23, combining for a 63% ATS mark (25-15) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 7-1 ATS during this timeframe to improve to 66% ATS (25-13) for the season, while StatFox Scott is also on a 7-1 ATS Best Bets run since Dec. 23. StatFox Zach and StatFox Brian are both 53% ATS (20-18) on college hoops Best Bets this season.

The Huskies enter this game ranked 78th in the nation in shooting (46.0% FG) and 129th in total rebounds (36.3 RPG), but are only 176th in scoring (68.0 PPG) and 222nd in assists (12.1 APG). The leading scorer on the team is PG Ryan Boatright (17.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.8 SPG), who had some big moments last season during the NCAA Tournament, including 13 points (5-of-9 FG) and six boards versus Florida. He is an undersized guard at 6-feet tall, but he has the ability to finish over bigger defenders at the rim, and the quickness to blow by defenses. He can also be a shutdown defender on the perimeter, and his defense was a big reason the Huskies won it all last season. Boatright has battled injuries this season, but when he is healthy, he is one of the best overall guards in college basketball. This is a very young team for head coach Kevin Ollie, but there is a lot of talent with 7-foot sophomore C Amida Brimah (12.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.7 BPG) and SG Daniel Hamilton (11.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 3.5 APG). Both of these guys are elite athletes for their position, they are continuing to improve each and every day. Hamilton had a chance to win the game from the foul line with three shots in a two-point deficit with two seconds left on the clock, but missed all three free throws in the team's loss. Hamilton shoots only 52% from the line, which is much worse than UConn's team percentage of 70.8% FT. The Huskies struggle from the three-point line (30.4%), but have some players who are capable of shooting it from deep like SG Rodney Purvis (9.6 PPG, 36% threes) who has averaged 14.0 PPG on 54% FG (6-for-13 threes) in the past three contests. The defense has kept UConn in games, as the Huskies rank 81st in the nation in scoring defense (61.2 PPG allowed) and 94th in blocks (4.4 BPG).

This has the makings of a defensive struggle, as the Gators are even better on the defensive end than UConn, holding teams to 56.3 PPG, which ranks 15th in college basketball. They are especially tough on the perimeter, collecting 8.3 SPG (46th in nation). Despite the heart-breaking loss to Florida State, the Gators are taking the right steps in becoming a force in March. Coach Billy Donovan’s team ranks 133rd in the nation in shooting (44.5% FG), 141st in assists (13.5 APG), 148th in rebounding (35.8 RPG) and 188th in scoring (67.6 PPG). The Gators struggled early in the season in large part because of injuries, but this team is starting to get healthy. Leading the way is SG Michael Frazier II (14.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 38% threes), who is one of the more experienced players on the team. He was a great role player for the team last season, but he is starting to get adjusted to being the focal point on the team. SF Dorian Finney-Smith (12.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) was injured early in the year, but he getting back to form with 18.3 PPG and 6.3 RPG in his past three games. He is an explosive athlete who has the ability to shoot the ball from deep (40% threes), making him a tough matchup for opposing teams. PG Kasey Hill (7.8 PPG, 4.4 APG and 2.3 RPG) was a huge recruit last season, and he is finally starting to emerge as a great leader on the team. He is coming off a 17-point performance (7-for-9 FG) on Tuesday and has 24 assists to just seven turnovers in his past five contests. The Gators are still waiting to see PF Chris Walker (6.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.2 BPG in 15.8 MPG) show the potential he did in high school. Against a UConn team with an athletic frontcourt, the Gators will need a big game from the sophomore Walker.


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