StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 18 UNC hosts No. 13 Notre Dame Monday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/5/2015  at  4:32:00 AM
  Print This Article    

 NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (14-1)

 at NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (11-3)

Dean E. Smith Center - Chapel Hill, NC
Tip-off: Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: North Carolina -8.5, Total: 150

Two sizzling-hot teams collide on Monday when No. 13 Notre Dame visits No. 18 North Carolina.

The Irish have only one loss this season, which occurred on Nov. 23 in a one-point defeat on a neutral court to Providence. Since then, they have won 10 straight games (3-3 ATS) with an offense scoring 75+ points in all 10 of these contests. Only once during the win streak did the team shoot below 50% from the floor. Since losing at top-ranked Kentucky on Dec. 13, the Tar Heels have won five straight games (SU and ATS), netting at least 74 points in all five victories, and prevailing in each contest by at least eight points. UNC was able to sweep Notre Dame in its first ACC campaign last season, winning 73-62 in South Bend before escaping with a 63-61 win at home. While the Irish are 10-0 ATS in the past three seasons after playing three straight games as a home favorite, the Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS in the past two seasons after three straight covers as a favorite. The only injury concern for either team is North Carolina SG Stillman White, who is questionable for the game due to an illness.

Can North Carolina win convincingly against this red-hot Notre Dame squad? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have caught fire since Dec. 23, combining for a 65% ATS mark (32-17) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 9-1 ATS during this timeframe to improve to 68% ATS (27-13) for the season, while StatFox Scott is on an 8-2 ATS Best Bets run since Dec. 23. StatFox Zach and StatFox Brian are both 55% ATS (22-18) on college hoops Best Bets this season.

Notre Dame ranks third in the nation in scoring (85.9 PPG) thanks to a NCAA-best shooting percentage of 55.3% FG and a stellar 40.4% clip from three-point range (14th in nation). The team is unselfish with 15.8 APG (33rd in NCAA), and outrebounds opponents by a +4.6 RPG margin. The defense has also been strong, allowing 61.9 PPG (89th in nation) on 39.5% FG and 32.8% threes. The Irish have four players averaging more than 13 points per game, led by senior PG Jerian Grant (17.9 PPG, 6.2 APG, 3.1 RPG, 1.5 SPG) who shoots 53% from the floor and 35% from three-point range. Grant has scored in double-figures in all 15 games this season, and posted his fifth 20-point game in Saturday's 83-76 win over Georgia Tech in double overtime. He played all 50 minutes in that marathon and committed five turnovers, marking the first time all season he had made more than two miscues. Grant was suspended for both meetings with UNC last season, which was a big reason why his team got swept. PF Zach Auguste (14.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG) shoots 68% from the floor and is working on a streak of seven straight games with 10+ points. He has gotten into some foul trouble this season with 4+ fouls on five occasions, so he'll need to stay on the court, as North Carolina is a much deeper team than Notre Dame. Auguste made 8-of-15 FG versus the Tar Heels last season, averaging 8.0 PPG and 5.5 RPG in the series. Both SG Demetrius Jackson (14.2 PPG, 3.2 APG, 3.0 RPG, 2.2 SPG) and SF Pat Connaughton (13.7 PPG, 8.2 RPG) are great long-range shooters at 44% threes and 45% threes, respectively this season. Jackson has averaged 16.7 PPG during a six-game streak of double-figure scoring, while Connaughton has shot lights-out during a four-game streak of 10+ points. In these four contests, the senior has averaged 16.5 PPG on 52% FG (47% threes) with a hefty 9.8 RPG. He's only 6-foot-5, but his tenacity will be needed against a huge Tar Heels frontcourt.

North Carolina ranks second in the nation in total rebounds (45.2 RPG) and holds a robust +10.3 RPG margin this season. The team's 18.4 APG (4th in NCAA) helps it score 80.8 PPG (16th in nation) on a solid 45.9% FG (71st in NCAA). The defense is able to limit opponents to 63.9 PPG (130th in nation) on a terrific 34.8% FG (7th in NCAA) and 24.9% threes (3rd in nation). This success is partly due to 5.0 blocks per game (47th in NCAA) and 7.5 steals per game (88th in nation). Offensively, the Heels are very deep, with nine players logging double-digit minutes on a nightly basis. PG Marcus Paige (13.4 PPG, 3.7 APG, 1.1 SPG) gets 30.0 MPG, making him the only player receiving 27 minutes per game. While the junior is shooting a mere 37% from the floor, he also shoots 37% from three-point range. Paige has done a better job recently though, making 47% FG in the past three games. In two meetings with the Irish last season, Paige averaged 11.5 PPG (38% FG) with 6.0 APG. Paige loves feeding the post to 6-foot-9 PF Kennedy Meeks (12.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG), who shoots 60% from the floor, and also 6-foot-10 C Brice Johnson (11.5 PPG, 7.1 RPG), who makes 56% of his shots. Meeks has scored at least seven points in every game this season and has grabbed 10+ rebounds on eight different occasions. Johnson has averaged nearly a double-double in his past four games with 12.0 PPG and 8.0 RPG in just 22.8 MPG. SGs Justin Jackson (9.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.5 APG) and J.P. Tokoto (8.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.2 APG) are both talented scorers, but while Tokoto makes 39% of his threes, Jackson has connected on only 22% from long range (7-of-32).


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: