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No. 12 Kansas visits No. 21 Baylor Wednesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/7/2015  at  4:45:00 AM
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KANSAS JAYHAWKS (11-2)

at BAYLOR BEARS (11-2)

Ferrell Center - Waco, TX
Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Baylor -2.5, Total: 132

No. 12 Kansas looks to retain its dominance over host No. 21 Baylor when the Big 12 rivals clash on Wednesday night.

The Jayhawks are 21-4 SU all-time in this series, including 9-2 SU (7-3 ATS) on the road. Last season Kansas swept the series by winning by 10 points at home before a 69-52 blowout in Waco. The Jayhawks are 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) in non-home games this season, but were humiliated in their last road tilt on Dec. 22, which was a 77-52 defeat at Temple. But they bounced back with two straight wins (SU and ATS) by 16 and 15 points to round out non-conference play. The Bears are a perfect 8-0 SU (2-1 ATS) at home this season, but opened Big 12 action Saturday with a 73-63 loss at Oklahoma, which snapped a six-game win streak. Baylor is 11-2 ATS in the past two seasons after having won two of its previous three games, but Kansas is 69-44 ATS under Bill Self after having won two of its previous contests. Both schools are great rebounding teams, with the Jayhawks posting a +7.4 RPG margin and the Bears at +10.4 RPG. Neither school has any new significant injuries in this matchup.

Which ranked team will pick up the big conference victory? For the latest college basketball picks, check out The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts selections every week throughout the entire 2013-14 season. The experts have caught fire since Dec. 23, combining for a 61% ATS mark (34-22) in college basketball Best Bets. StatFox Gary is 9-2 ATS during this timeframe to improve to 66% ATS (27-14) for the season, while StatFox Scott is on an 8-3 ATS Best Bets run since Dec. 23. StatFox Brian is 55% ATS (23-19) on college hoops Best Bets this season, while StatFox Zach is 54% ATS (22-19).

Kansas has underachieved offensively this season with only 71.2 PPG (111th in nation) on 42.6% FG (226th in NCAA), but has saved itself with excellent three-point shooting (39.2% threes, 27th in nation). The defense hasn't been great either with 64.5 PPG allowed (144th in nation), but it does hold opponents to a mere 41.9% FG and 32.9% threes. Sophomore PG Frank Mason III (12.4 PPG, 4.2 APG, 3.8 RPG) has been the most valuable player for the Jayhawks all season, handling all the point-guard duties since Devonte Graham injured his toe last month. Mason is shooting 51% threes and has 14+ points in each of his past four games where he's dished out 23 assists with only nine turnovers (2.6 Ast/TO ratio). Joining him in the backcourt is freshman SG Kelly Oubre Jr. (7.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG in 15.8 MPG) who has been on fire in four games since being inserted into the starting lineup with averages of 16.0 PPG (53% FG, 10-of-19 threes), 8.5 RPG and 2.2 SPG in these three contests. He's also making 48% of his threes this season, and this long-range shooting will be vital to beat the larger Bears. The best frontcourt player for Kansas is junior PF Perry Ellis (13.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG) whose 43% FG and 26% threes are down considerably from last season (55% FG, 47% threes), but he has been great in the past two victories, scoring 15.5 PPG on 52% FG with 8.5 RPG. Ellis averaged 16.0 PPG and 7.5 RPG in the sweep of Baylor last season.

The Bears had a dismal shooting night versus Oklahoma on Saturday (37% FG), and for the season, they rank 135th in the nation in scoring (70.0 PPG) and 159th in shooting (44.0% FG) despite 15.5 APG (46th in NCAA). They also make a strong 37.2% of their three-point shots. Baylor's defense is outstanding, holding opponents to 56.1 PPG (13th in nation) on 37.8% FG (29th in NCAA) and 27.8% threes (19th in nation) with 8.0 SPG (55th in NCAA). The team's leading scorer and best long-range shooter is junior SF Taurean Prince (12.0 PPG, 54% threes) who also averaged 5.1 RPG and 1.2 SPG. He has averaged 15.0 PPG (5-of-11 threes) in his past two games, which was a huge improvement from his 3.5 PPG on 2-of-11 FG in his previous two contests. Joining him in the frontcourt is freshman PF Johnathan Motley (10.8 PPG, 45% FG, 4.8 RPG, 1.6 BPG) who has been on fire in the past five games with 17.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG and 3.0 BPG. His presence in the paint, along with rebounding machine PF Rico Gathers (9.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG), will go a long way in determining who wins this game. Baylor also needs a strong showing from PG Kenny Chery (8.2 PPG, 4.6 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.6 SPG) who is shooting a dismal 35% FG. But Chery has run the offense effectively over the past four games with 27 assists and just eight turnovers (3.4 Ast/TO ratio).


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