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Luck, Manning clash Sunday in Denver
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/11/2015  at  5:04:00 AM
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (12-5)
at DENVER BRONCOS (12-4)

AFC Divisional Playoff Game
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -7, Total: 54

The Colts will head to the Mile High City on Sunday for a playoff matchup with the Broncos.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Indianapolis dominated the Bengals last week in a 26-10 playoff victory at home and now visit a Denver team that is fresh off a bye. These teams last met in Week 1 when the Broncos won 31-24 as 8.5-point home favorites, which snapped a six-game SU win streak for the Colts in this series, and extended their ATS win streak to seven in this matchup. Since 1992, Indianapolis is 22-7 ATS after two straight double-digit wins, and the team is also 10-2 ATS after outgaining its opponent by 100+ total yards in its previous game over the past three seasons. Meanwhile, Denver is 21-10 ATS in the past three seasons when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, and is 16-3 ATS when playing with 2+ weeks of rest since 1992. A lot of those wins for the Colts did, however, come when Peyton Manning was playing for Indianapolis. This game will have a very interesting storyline with Manning facing his former team and Andrew Luck going up against the Hall of Famer he replaced. While the Colts have some offensive line concerns with OT Gosder Cherilus (groin) out and G Hugh Thornton (shoulder) questionable, the Broncos have four questionable players in OT Orlando Franklin (concussion), LB Brandon Marshall (foot), DB T.J. Ward and S David Bruton (concussion).

Which team will advance to the AFC Championship? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 playoffs. The experts started the postseason a perfect 4-0 ATS. StatFox Gary predicted the Panthers to cover, making him a stellar 68% ATS (23-11-1) in Best Bets since Week 9. StatFox Scott forecasted a big win for the Colts, and is now 55% ATS (34-28-2) in Best Bets during since Week 3. StatFox Brian nailed both ATS winners in the NFC (Panthers and Lions) during Wild Card week, predicting a 10-point Carolina win on an actual 11-point margin, and also predicted the Detroit-Dallas score to be 23-20 for a final score that was 24-20. Brian is now 63% ATS (10-6) in NFL Best Bets since Week 14.

The Colts didn’t face much of a challenge in a matchup with the Bengals last week, allowing just 254 total yards in a 26-10 victory. Over the past two weeks, Indianapolis’ defense has allowed just 10.0 PPG, but this Broncos team is a whole different animal. The Colts will need to really be on their game on Sunday or they’ll be shredded by Peyton Manning’s offense. QB Andrew Luck (4,761 pass yards, 40 TD, 16 INT) was excellent against the Bengals, going 31-of-44 for 376 yards with a touchdown and no picks. Luck threw for 370 yards with two touchdowns, but also two interceptions, in the Week 1 meeting with the Broncos, adding 19 yards and a touchdown on the ground. If Luck had limited his turnovers, the Colts might have been able to win that season opener, and ball security could be difficult versus a Denver defense with 2+ takeaways in five straight games. Top WR T.Y. Hilton (82 rec, 1,345 yards, 7 TD) had six catches for 103 yards against the Bengals. He did, however, see 14 targets in the game and he’ll need to haul in more of his looks on Sunday. He is Luck’s go-to-receiver who gained a mere 41 yards on his 11 targets in the Sept. 7 meeting with the Broncos. WR Reggie Wayne (64 rec, 778 yards, 2 TD) did the most damage versus Denver that game with nine catches for 98 yards. RB Daniel Herron (351 rush yards, 1 TD) didn’t touch the football in that Week 1 meeting, but rushed for 56 yards and a touchdown while catching 10 passes for 85 yards in the win over Cincinnati. However, Herron fumbled the ball twice and lost one of them. He can’t afford to put the ball on the ground and put Denver's high-powered offense in great field position.

The Broncos are fresh off their bye and enter this game after winning five of their final six regular season games. QB Peyton Manning (4,727 pass yards, 39 TD, 15 INT) faces his old team for the second time this season, but this one is different. Manning now has the chance to eliminate the Colts, a team he threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns against in Week 1. The future Hall of Fame quarterback really struggled down the stretch though, throwing for just three touchdowns with six interceptions over the final four weeks of the year. He’ll need to get back on track in this one, or it will be very difficult for the Broncos to move on. WRs Demaryius Thomas (111 rec, 1,619 yards, 11 TD) and Emmanuel Sanders (101 rec, 1,404 yards, 9 TD) both have the ability to get open at will, so Manning will just need to deliver the ball to them in a timely manner on Sunday. One thing that has made up for the poor play of Manning has been the running of RB C.J. Anderson (849 rush yards, 8 TD). Anderson rushed for seven touchdowns over the final four weeks of the year and enters the playoffs after having gained more than 83 yards in three straight games. The Broncos defense allowed 17 or less points in four of their final five regular season games. They’ll need to slow down the Colts’ air attack in order to advance to the AFC championship game.


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