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Cowboys, Packers collide Sunday at Lambeau
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/11/2015  at  5:56:00 AM
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DALLAS COWBOYS (13-4)
at GREEN BAY PACKERS (12-4)

NFC Divisional Playoff Game
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
Line: Green Bay -6, Total: 53

The red-hot Cowboys head to Lambeau Field on Sunday for a Divisional Round playoff matchup with the Packers.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Dallas won its fifth straight game (4-1 ATS) last week when it edged out the Lions in a 24-20 win after trailing 17-7 at halftime, and now visits a Green Bay team that beat them 37-36 in Big D last season. But the Cowboys are a perfect 8-0 SU (7-1 ATS) on the road this year, which sets up the first time in NFL history that an 8-0 road team is facing an 8-0 home club, as the Packers were 6-1-1 ATS at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) since the start of November and has dominated this series recently, winning-and-covering in three straight against Dallas. The last time the Cowboys beat the Packers was Sept. 21, 2008, which was their only win (either SU and ATS) in the past five games at Lambeau Field. Both teams have telling betting trends in this playoff matchup, as Dallas is 20-9 ATS in the underdog role under Jason Garrett, including 9-2 when getting between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The Cowboys are also 11-2 ATS in road games after allowing 6+ yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons. The Packers, meanwhile, are 10-0 ATS at home versus top-level teams (75%+ win pct.) in the second half of the season since 1992, and 9-1-1 ATS (11-0 SU) in games played on grass this year. QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown 38 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his past 16 home games (including playoffs), and should be amped for the opportunity to throw against the league's 26th-ranked pass defense. But his mobility could be limited because of a calf injury. The only other injury concern for Green Bay is CB Davon House, who is questionable with a shoulder injury. For Dallas, LB Rolando McClain (head) and OT Doug Free (ankle) are both questionable.

Can the Cowboys remain perfect on the road this season? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014-15 playoffs. The experts started the postseason a perfect 4-0 ATS. StatFox Gary predicted the Panthers to cover, making him a stellar 68% ATS (23-11-1) in Best Bets since Week 9. StatFox Scott forecasted a big win for the Colts, and is now 55% ATS (34-28-2) in Best Bets during since Week 3. StatFox Brian nailed both ATS winners in the NFC (Panthers and Lions) during Wild Card week, predicting a 10-point Carolina win on an actual 11-point margin, and also predicted the Detroit-Dallas score to be 23-20 for a final score that was 24-20. Brian is now 63% ATS (10-6) in NFL Best Bets since Week 14.

The Cowboys got off to a slow start against the Lions, but they ultimately rallied back and won behind the excellent play of QB Tony Romo (3,705 pass yards, 34 TD, 9 INT). Romo threw for 293 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions in the game. He led the Cowboys on a 59-yard drive that resulted in a touchdown pass to WR Terrance Williams (37 rec, 621 yards, 8 TD) to take the lead for good with under three minutes remaining in the game. Williams was excellent against the Lions, catching three passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns. With the Packers defense likely throwing extra attention at top WR Dez Bryant (88 rec, 1,320 yards, 16 TD), Williams could see plenty of open space in this game as well. Bryant had just three catches for 48 yards against Detroit, and Dallas will need him to be much more effective against a Packers defense that is allowing just 226.4 passing YPG (10th in NFL). The key to this game could be the running of RB DeMarco Murray (1,845 rush yards, 13 TD). Murray rushed for 75 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries last week and will now face a defense that is allowing 119.9 rushing YPG (23rd in NFL). The ability to defend the run is a weakness for the Packers that Dallas will need to exploit in order to advance. During the Cowboys' 8-0 road record, they are outscoring host teams by 11.8 PPG.

Green Bay heads into this matchup with Dallas after winning-and-covering in its final two games of the regular season. The club put up an eye-popping 39.7 PPG in its eight home wins, while holding visitors to 20.4 PPG (19.3 PPG margin). QB Aaron Rodgers (4,381 pass yards, 38 TD, 5 INT) now gets to face a Cowboys team that is miserable when defending the pass. In two home meetings against Dallas in the past five years, Rodgers has thrown for 239.0 yards per game with four touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’ll need to pick apart this secondary if the Packers are going to advance. WRs Jordy Nelson (98 rec, 1,519 yards, 13 TD) and Randall Cobb (91 rec, 1,287 yards, 12 TD) will be the receivers that Rodgers is looking for when dropping back. Both pass catchers have been incredibly reliable this season and they should be able to find openings against a porous Cowboys secondary. RB Eddie Lacy (1,139 rush yards, 9 TD) will also need to have a big game for this Packers team on Sunday. Lacy enters the postseason after having rushed for at least 97 yards in each of the final three games of the regular season. He has rushed for a touchdown in three of the past four games, and will need to tire out the Cowboys with his relentless style of running. Defensively, this team allowed just 11.5 PPG over the final two weeks of the season and will need its secondary to remain solid against Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.


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