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Surging Blazers favored big over Heat Thursday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/8/2015  at  5:19:00 AM
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MIAMI HEAT (15-20)

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (27-8)

Tip-off: Thursday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Portland -9, Total: 197.5

The Blazers look for their sixth win in seven games when they host the Heat on Thursday night.

Miami heads into this matchup after having defeated the Nets 88-84 as a 2-point home underdog in its last game on Monday. The win snapped a four-game losing skid (both SU and ATS). Meanwhile, Portland defeated the Lakers 98-94 as a 13-point home favorite on Monday. The club has won five of its past six games SU, but has failed to cover in the past two contests. The Heat have won the past three games in this head-to-head series SU, but the Blazers covered in the most recent meeting, a 93-91 loss on March 24, 2014. Miami has also been very successful in Portland over the years, winning-and-covering in four of its past five trips to Moda Center. The Blazers are 21-43 ATS after a game where they were called for 13 or less fouls since 1996, but are facing a Heat team that is 0-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, and 33-46 ATS after a win over the past two seasons. SG Justin Hamilton (concussion) is probable for Miami on Thursday, while SG Wesley Matthews (knee) is questionable for the Blazers.

Can the Blazers secure a double-digit win in this matchup? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the Expert picks throughout the entire 2014-15 season. StatFox Forecaster has a strong 55% ATS record (90-73-1) in featured games this season. In terms of Best Bets, the experts have a collective 68% ATS (15-7) record since Jan. 2, led by StatFox Scott, who is a sizzling 75% ATS (9-3) in Best Bets since Dec. 21, improving his record to 54% ATS (28-24) for the season. StatFox Brian is 62% ATS (18-11) in Best Bets since Nov. 29, and is now 55% ATS (28-23) in season Best Bets, while StatFox Gary is 54% ATS (15-13) in NBA Best Bets since Nov. 29, and 53% ATS (27-24) this season.

The Heat finally broke out of their recent slump with a win over the Nets, and SG Dwyane Wade (23.0 PPG, 5.6 APG, 3.8 RPG) came up huge in the losing-skid-busting victory. Wade had 25 points, seven assists and six rebounds in that Monday win. Wade would benefit greatly if Wesley Matthews is unable to go in this game. Matthews is an excellent on-ball defender and would certainly make things more difficult on Wade. C Chris Bosh (21.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG) was also excellent against Brooklyn, finishing Monday's game with 26 points and five rebounds in 39 minutes of action. It was the first time that Bosh looked 100 percent since returning from a calf injury and he’ll need to be on his game against a tough Blazers frontcourt. SF Luol Deng (14.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG) was dealing with foul trouble against the Nets, finishing with just six points in 25 minutes of action. Deng will need to remain disciplined against Portland, as he is one of Miami’s best on-ball defenders, and he is also capable of coming up big offensively on certain nights. PG Mario Chalmers (11.0 PPG, 4.3 APG, 1.6 SPG) is averaging just 4.0 PPG and 3.4 APG in 30.0 MPG over the past five contests. He is really struggling with his shot, but he can be useful for Miami in this game if he is able to slow down the red-hot Damian Lillard.

The Blazers come into this game after just barely getting by in a 98-94 win over the Lakers. Portland would have lost that game if it wasn’t for the clutch play of PG Damian Lillard (22.2 PPG, 6.4 APG, 5.0 RPG). Lillard finished the game with 39 points, six rebounds, five assists and two steals in 39 minutes of action. Sixteen of his 39 points came in the fourth quarter, as he was pretty much unstoppable down the stretch. He’ll look to continue to be aggressive against a Miami team that is weak at the point guard position. PF LaMarcus Aldridge (23.0 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 1.3 BPG) will be in for a huge battle with Chris Bosh in this game. The big man is averaging 24.7 PPG and 11.0 RPG over his past three games, and will need to do more of the same against Miami. If he and Lillard both have it going, it will be very tough for the Heat to beat them in Portland. With SG Wesley Matthews (16.6 PPG, 3.4 RPG) banged up, SF Nicolas Batum (9.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.7 APG) will need to step his game up offensively. He’s averaging 13.6 PPG over the past five games, but could really help his team on Thursday if he is more aggressive shooting the basketball.


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